Seasonal Selling or A Top In the Stock Market

If you follow most of the commentary right now about the stock market you will see that a common theme is whether you should "SELL IN MAY".  This is a common seasonal trend in the stock market when trading in stocks becomes thin as more traders head off for vacation.  I guess this is somewhat true as I have to head to London here shortly, but its not exactly for vacation. But soon after that I'll find myself in Las Vegas for a little R&R, so I guess this trader will be off eventually for a few days.  There are a few people that are speaking a little louder and signaling that it may be more than seasonal.  I tend to listen to these voices if I find some of the points that they are highlighting credible.  I also tend to tune into these point of views more as friends and family begin to want to talk "shop" with me.  If my friends are asking me about the stock market and telling me how well its been moving and that they have to get back in because they've missed the move up, I start to think.."Uh-Oh the trend may be the markets will start moving down".  When the average Joe is jumping in its usually to late, the smart money has already pounced.  So I am a pretty average guy, so how does this effect me!  Well when I start to get scared about the markets, I try to do the opposite of my impulse and buy.  When things are getting really rosy, I try to sell even though I don't want to.  When I started getting more people talking shop, I sold a few positions, but to be fair, I added a few more of my PREMIUM ALERT picks. The one caveat is I am adding picks that might survive a tough downturn.

Here is a snippet from a BLOOMBERG article of an investor who's painting a picture that's less rosy. Attached is the link to the full article: 

John Burbank, founder of $3.8 billion hedge fund Passport Capital LLC, said he expects a U.S. economic recession this year or in early 2013, according to a letter to investors.

Uneasy Markets...Is There Reason to Worry?

Sometimes when I haven't written a post in awhile its because I am paying very close attention to what's going on in the US markets as well the rest of the world. My general thoughts are people are 'cautiously optimistic' but still a little schizophrenic.  They haven't forgot about how bad a few years ago felt for them and the people they care about. My main street barometer considers things like: 1) Are people shopping? 2) Do I see the bars/clubs/restaurants crowded? 3) Are people talking about their bills or their vacation?

My unscientific survey of my friends and I show that we are going out to more movies, drinking more beer, and thinking about that next trip to Mexico or Las Vegas.  This is positive because it means that unconsciously we might feel that things aren't too bad out there.  However, our alter egos remind us to constantly talk about deals! Our conversations usually start with, "Where can we get in for free?" or "Are there deals or specials today?"  This translates into into my views on the stock market.  I feel pretty good about things and wanna buy more stocks but I want a deal! I think we all share the same feelings of wanting to be invested because we see the stock market going up but I caution you to "WAIT FOR YOUR DEAL!"

I was reading and wanted to share some a question and answer from a Wall Street pro that summed up my feeling on stocks and why I am cautious. Here is a snippet that was posted by the Wall Street Journal:

WSJ Link

Q: Where do you worry you might be wrong?

A: Well, our biggest concern is not so much about being wrong over the next five to 10 years, it's being wrong next year. We believe very strongly in value. We think that value wins in the long run. The problem is it can lose for an inconvenient amount of time along the way. And I would say our biggest concern about why the U.S. might win this year is because of what's going on with government policies around the world.

We believe that the U.S. stock market is overvalued because profits are unsustainably high. But the biggest reason why profits are unsustainably high is because we're running giant budget deficits, which has allowed corporations to cut their labor costs without forcing the workers to cut their consumption.

1st Quarter 2012: 4 PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS

Please contact me directly (email_urbanomics@yahoo.com) to subscribe to this quarter’s premium stock alerts. Find out what I have my eye on and more importantly when I will be adding these stocks to my portfolio.

1st Quarter 2012 Premium Stock Alerts
I’ve been out digging in and hoping to find a few diamonds. One thing that was consistent about these picks this quarter is they are beaten down bunch. Some are showing a change is coming, others have dashed the hopes of many investors, and then a few look like they are just chugging along. Technology, Gold, and Healthcare appear to be the themes for this quarter.

Stock #1: **********
Details:
Sector: Technology
Industry: Networking & Communication Devices
Tip You may want to plant this technology company.

Stock #2: **********
Details:
Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Gold
Tip 2 for 1 when it comes to this gold stock.


Stock #3: **********
Details:
Sector: Healthcare
Industry: Biotechnology
Tip This biotech company got taken out to the gun range.

Stock #4: **********
Details
Sector: Technology
Industry: Communication Equipment
Tip Is this technology company real? Ask R.R. and W.E.C

Interesting Things the Stock Market Told Me...

Some may call it beginners luck, but I like to say the stock market can teach you a number of pretty interesting things.  I hate to admit, that it makes me a 'Jack of All Trades' and I seem to know a little bit about some of the strangest subjects under the sun.  I can hold a conversation on the buzz around hydraulic fracturing (known as fracking) in the oil and gas industry or debate why the housing market may have bottomed in Phoenix or never really declined in the metro Washington DC area.  Here are some of the non-stock things I've learned from the Mr. Market:

Who to Watch / Company Watch - UPDATE

Who to Watch
My how times have changed!  In the past, young investors like myself would have wanted to follow in the footsteps of corporate raiders, mutual fund managers, and high profile investors.  One well known corporate raider is Carl Icahn, he and other corporate raiders were legendary for taking over companies or agitating boards for significant change. There was also those legendary mutual fund managers that made people in my parent's generation a lot of money by investing through their fund. Some well know names here are Peter Lynch (Fidelity), Bill Miller (Legg Mason), Bruce Berkowitz (Fairholme), and many others.  The last group of high profile investors are guys like Warren Buffet and George Soros.  Today some of the most well known money makers are in the hedge fund industry.    A small difference from the previous investors in the past, are hedge funds try to make money when markets are up or down by betting on and against the performance of stocks.  Here is a run-down of some of my favorite hedge fund managers:

• Steve Cohen, David Einhorn, John Paulson, Seth Klarman, 
• Bill Ackman, David Nierenberg, Monish Pabrai, Ray Dalio

Is Your Portfolio Up...

Dow Above 13,000 / NASDAQ 3,000
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an index that is made of 30 stocks which are a general representation of US economy.  The index consists of companies like McDonalds, Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Bank of America, and Procter & Gamble.  The Dow being above 13K is significant because some consumers like you and me are feeling a little bit better as we watch our collective investment wallets head in the right direction.  If you are invested in the markets through a personal account, 401K, IRA or some other investment vehicle chances are they are all doing better.  To put this in perspective the last time the Dow was at this level was in May 2008.  Or this may help, when things were really bad a few years ago the Dow was at 6,547 on March 9, 2009.  That was four years ago the stock market was where it is today, so we've come along way.  I almost forgot the NASDAQ, which is an index tracking primarily technology stocks.  The NASDAQ briefly hit 3,000 a level it hadn't seen in about 12 years!!

URB Investment Tips: My take away is that this is proof as why you usually want to stay invested in the markets and to not be scared away by the big swings.  I also want to mention that this is a good time to cash in a few of your BIG winners.  In short, I've been impressed by the momentum of jobs and have enjoyed this ride up in the stock market. I will be watching closely because I think we've come along way and worked hard to get here and I think the market may take a deep breathe and pull back (i.e., decline in price) a few months from now.

Here are a few themes from my latest quarterly stock picks:

~ Beaten down stocks
~ Pharmaceutical stocks
~ Gold Miners stocks

Stay tuned, they'll be released shortly.

JOBS, Company Watch - JOE, BKS, LULU, NFLX

January 9, 2012

JOBS BY THE NUMBERS

If you weren’t paying attention, some important data was released this week.  The US Labor Department released the number of jobs that were gained/lost in the previous month.  Drum roll…companies hired 200,000 employees in December and the famous unemployment rate dropped to 8.5%.  If you aren’t familiar with the numbers this is POSITIVE in my book.  The reasons are: (1) More people have been getting jobs and this has been consistently happening since last summer, (2) The jobs are being added across small, medium, and large companies, and (3) Jobless claims (i.e., people filing unemployment claims) are falling.  In case you were following along at home, the number usually has to be over 125,000 to signify that jobs are being added. 

We want more jobs, I want more jobs, and we should expect that are federal, state, schools, and citizens will do and try everything to continue to get this number to a level that allows our country to grow and people to work consistently.  So please when we watch debates or listen to the evening news keep that in perspective that without jobs a lot of other things seem pretty trivial.

COMPANY WATCH – St. Joes Company (NYSE: JOE) / Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS)

St. Joes Company – This stock is a great example of trusting your instinct.  I like the prospects of taking a contrarian, or against the grain, stand on some investments.  JOE was one of those companies that I thought is a better investment than owning home builders.  My thesis is you get to own land and that has an intrinsic value that should hold its worth in economic downturns like the ones we’ve suffered.  Well to make a long story short, I believe I had the right thesis however I never expected there was going to be such a dispute as to what the true value of the land is.  David Einhorn made a compelling case as to why the value of the land St. Joes held wasn’t worth what St. Joes was claiming and the stock has fallen sharply.  WELL, finally there appears to be some upside to the stock.  I’ve noticed that some analysts have upgraded their outlook based on future growth prospects.  The development of land in the Panama City area, the recent development of an international airport, and recent cost cutting measures are signs that they might be moving in the right direction. 

Price: $14.67

                                          

Barnes and Noble – I am a sucker for stocks on the decline and Barnes and Noble is showing up on my radar. The other day is dropped roughly 20% on news that they were changing their future outlook lower.  That is never good and investors let them have it.  BKS even mentioned making changes such as spinning of their NOOK business. 

Price: $11.65 

COMPANY WATCH  - Lululemon athletica (NASDAQ: LULU)  / Netfilx (NASDAQ: NFLX)  

Lululemon – I’ve had my eye on LULU for quite some time now.  This stock has been a high flier and it you don’t know they make money by selling $100 dollar yoga pants.  Yoga, it’s all the craze for people with money and to show of that dough they buy expensive pants to get their work out on.  Well LULU had come under some pressure and the stock dropped a bit.  I am a stock hater here! And because I like things on the cheap I want LULU to fall further before I begin buying.  I may not be able to get that opportunity because LULU seems to go one direction and that’s up.

 Price: $53.44

Netflix – Quick note, I trashed it on the way down and I love a good rebound.  NFLX, at the lows of $70 is attractive to me.  It’s rebounded strongly and they recently talked about expanding further internationally.

Price: $98.18