Urbanomics Outlook on the Economy
Here is my outlook on the economy. The economy is like a leaky faucet, slowly dripping. If you review the last few months, the data supporting jobs and economic growth have been bad kind of like when your faucet is clogged up. But every now and then you get a surprise and a few gushes come out and occasionally the economic numbers have had a few surprises. But if you put it all together the economy continues to be a very slow drip for a population of Americans that are thirsty for jobs and an economic rebound to our investments, 401K portfolios, real estate, and lifestyles.
Do You Yahoo?
I know I do. I use Yahoo all the time. Yahoo is my home page, my email service and also my source for fantasy football. But even with all these reasons they are having trouble keeping up with the big boys of technology (Google, Amazon, Ebay). They are even used as a verb, no one ever asks whether you ‘Yahooed’ something! Well it may be time to circle the wagon on this old reliable tech company. We have a little help in stirring the pot. Dan Loeb, founder of the hedge fund Third Point sent a scathing letter to Yahoo’s Board and then kindly reminded them that he now owns a roughly 5% stake in the company. Here at Urbanomics we are fans of investors that stir the pot and when it happens at unloved companies like Yahoo we get excited.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Monday, August 08, 2011
The Market's Continuous Drop...
I've been listening to some smart investors talk about how to invest in an environment like this. These theories vary and this helps me shape my frame of reference. It allows me to hear how bankers, investors, and politicians think and then I can ground some of that in reality because I can probably tell what's going on with the everyday person better than they might experience.
Right now we are in rapidly changing times in the US, some parts of the world and of course in the stock market. The stock market has been violently gyrating and for the last few weeks it has been decidedly lower. The smart money will tell you not to panic and while I subscribe to this theory it can be very difficult. The economy is weak and some are reporting the increasing risk of a double dip recession. For me, I go with my gut feeling and I have stayed consistent that too many Americans are hurting for anyone to be blindly buying stocks. I agree that certain actions along the way have helped to stimulate the economy but not enough has been done to help alleviate the areas that the average citizen is being hampered by. I believe the economy will continue to be fragile until: 1) Jobs return in a consistent fashion 2) Debt levels for the average American must get rightsized, and 3) Housing burdens for the average person become less of a constant drag on people and their local economies. I'm not happy with the fact that are politicians can't stay focused on some of these core issues that are plaguing us today and make this their top priority. So I will remind you to not get fooled by their gimmicks of last minute deal-making and understand that this slow painful decline will continue until they address the real problems at hand.
I do wish I had sounded a louder alarm because I've noticed that many big investors had recently been hedging their bets and protecting themselves if things got bad. And as you can see they got bad in a hurry. I think my approach will not change from the points I've been highlighting from the beginning of the year, and that is this is the YEAR OF DEFENSE. See the following articles to learn what we've been doing to stay defensive in these uncertain markets:
Right now we are in rapidly changing times in the US, some parts of the world and of course in the stock market. The stock market has been violently gyrating and for the last few weeks it has been decidedly lower. The smart money will tell you not to panic and while I subscribe to this theory it can be very difficult. The economy is weak and some are reporting the increasing risk of a double dip recession. For me, I go with my gut feeling and I have stayed consistent that too many Americans are hurting for anyone to be blindly buying stocks. I agree that certain actions along the way have helped to stimulate the economy but not enough has been done to help alleviate the areas that the average citizen is being hampered by. I believe the economy will continue to be fragile until: 1) Jobs return in a consistent fashion 2) Debt levels for the average American must get rightsized, and 3) Housing burdens for the average person become less of a constant drag on people and their local economies. I'm not happy with the fact that are politicians can't stay focused on some of these core issues that are plaguing us today and make this their top priority. So I will remind you to not get fooled by their gimmicks of last minute deal-making and understand that this slow painful decline will continue until they address the real problems at hand.
I do wish I had sounded a louder alarm because I've noticed that many big investors had recently been hedging their bets and protecting themselves if things got bad. And as you can see they got bad in a hurry. I think my approach will not change from the points I've been highlighting from the beginning of the year, and that is this is the YEAR OF DEFENSE. See the following articles to learn what we've been doing to stay defensive in these uncertain markets:
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
IPOs, A Little Defense, & China's All Star Team...
Initial Public Offerings (IPO)
Guess what's back in vogue, the wild rush of buying an IPO. This is usually reserved to investors who are highly coveted, so usually not you and me. However, a little unknown tip is that you can call your brokerage firm and ask if there is a process for you to sign-up or participate in IPOs. You might be surprised that some of your favorite companies and their products have recently gone public. Check out these IPOs:
Guess what's back in vogue, the wild rush of buying an IPO. This is usually reserved to investors who are highly coveted, so usually not you and me. However, a little unknown tip is that you can call your brokerage firm and ask if there is a process for you to sign-up or participate in IPOs. You might be surprised that some of your favorite companies and their products have recently gone public. Check out these IPOs:
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
New Tech Titans, Double Dips, & Don't Label Me...
New Tech Titans
The technology field is definitely active as social networking, gaming, movies, and music continue to seamlessly weave themselves into our daily lives. It's time to refresh your memory on the new tech titans on the block. First off, Facebook leads the charge with their recent announcement of new features: (1) group chat, (2) new designs, & (3) video chat. Many people can't wait for the day this stock IPO's or goes public. Next is Google, who is offering Google+ a competing social network site and chomping at the bit for more targeted advertising. And then there is the simplicity of Netflix. Netflix is now streaming throughout many homes on a regular basis and they are betting that you will stick around even as they raise prices. Sorry to break the news but Netflix prices are going up for everyone...will you pay up?
Other hot technology firms are Linked In, Pandora, Zynga, Square, and others which are changing the way we interact, watch movies, and listen to music. Then we have Groupon which could be potentially be valued ar roughly $20 Billion dollars when they IPO, or become a public company. The question often asked is “Do You Remember The Technology Bubble?” and is it happening all over again. I do believe that some of these firms are legit, but I think a few won't be as popular as they are today. Stay tuned for further posts as I tackle which technology stocks will survive the digital renaissance.
Double Dip??
The economy may be suffering from a really bad hangover that was worse than we originally thought. Financial stocks, housing stocks, and high levels of consumer debt make you wonder if we've learned anything at all from the 2008 crisis. I just don't have the feeling that we are out of the woods yet and I've been cautious for quite awhile. I don't think I am alone anymore as there have been rumbling about more stimulus...is there Quantitative Easing on the horizon, well the Fed might think so. Can you say QE3
The technology field is definitely active as social networking, gaming, movies, and music continue to seamlessly weave themselves into our daily lives. It's time to refresh your memory on the new tech titans on the block. First off, Facebook leads the charge with their recent announcement of new features: (1) group chat, (2) new designs, & (3) video chat. Many people can't wait for the day this stock IPO's or goes public. Next is Google, who is offering Google+ a competing social network site and chomping at the bit for more targeted advertising. And then there is the simplicity of Netflix. Netflix is now streaming throughout many homes on a regular basis and they are betting that you will stick around even as they raise prices. Sorry to break the news but Netflix prices are going up for everyone...will you pay up?
Other hot technology firms are Linked In, Pandora, Zynga, Square, and others which are changing the way we interact, watch movies, and listen to music. Then we have Groupon which could be potentially be valued ar roughly $20 Billion dollars when they IPO, or become a public company. The question often asked is “Do You Remember The Technology Bubble?” and is it happening all over again. I do believe that some of these firms are legit, but I think a few won't be as popular as they are today. Stay tuned for further posts as I tackle which technology stocks will survive the digital renaissance.
Double Dip??
The economy may be suffering from a really bad hangover that was worse than we originally thought. Financial stocks, housing stocks, and high levels of consumer debt make you wonder if we've learned anything at all from the 2008 crisis. I just don't have the feeling that we are out of the woods yet and I've been cautious for quite awhile. I don't think I am alone anymore as there have been rumbling about more stimulus...is there Quantitative Easing on the horizon, well the Fed might think so. Can you say QE3
Sunday, June 26, 2011
Meet Me @ The Gas Pump...It's Going Down
Literally, it may be time to meet at the gas station because the prices are finally going down. When I thought about gas prices I obviously had the rap song "It's Going Down", by Yung Joc in my head. It's been going down to the tune of 21 STRAIGHT DAYS with an average price around the country now at $3.60. Yes I said to the tune...I can get that song outta my head.
Why is this happening??
Economy
Well, start by taking a look at my last post written almost a month ago that outlined how high gas prices and not enough job creation hurts an economy. If prices stay high for too long it begins to change the way people do things. Remember Yung Joc said, "Meet me in the Mall, Meet me in the Club...it's going down"...well when gas prices stay high people start cutting back on buying gas and going to those spots. As more and more people cut back, carpool, take public transportation or just travel less, the demand for gas will continue to fall and so will the prices.
Over-Speculation
The other reason is there have been some high profile prosecutions recently of traders who were manipulating oil markets which has an impact on gas. These traders can at times make the supply or demand greater or less than what the real market demand is for oil and when the fools are removed from the equation it helps to bring gas prices down.
Oil Reserves
Lastly, the US government just released barrels of oil from a strategic reserve that is maintained for emergency situations. This was a coordinated effort of 28 countries around the world to release oil from emergency stashes in an effort to begin reducing the price and impact high gas is having on the global economy. The group of 28, also known as International Energy Agency (IEA), has taken these steps only three other times in history.
How to Invest - Stay defensive at this point - Dividends, Healthcare, and Energy
Why is this happening??
Economy
Well, start by taking a look at my last post written almost a month ago that outlined how high gas prices and not enough job creation hurts an economy. If prices stay high for too long it begins to change the way people do things. Remember Yung Joc said, "Meet me in the Mall, Meet me in the Club...it's going down"...well when gas prices stay high people start cutting back on buying gas and going to those spots. As more and more people cut back, carpool, take public transportation or just travel less, the demand for gas will continue to fall and so will the prices.
Over-Speculation
The other reason is there have been some high profile prosecutions recently of traders who were manipulating oil markets which has an impact on gas. These traders can at times make the supply or demand greater or less than what the real market demand is for oil and when the fools are removed from the equation it helps to bring gas prices down.
Oil Reserves
Lastly, the US government just released barrels of oil from a strategic reserve that is maintained for emergency situations. This was a coordinated effort of 28 countries around the world to release oil from emergency stashes in an effort to begin reducing the price and impact high gas is having on the global economy. The group of 28, also known as International Energy Agency (IEA), has taken these steps only three other times in history.
How to Invest - Stay defensive at this point - Dividends, Healthcare, and Energy
Friday, June 03, 2011
What's Up With The Economy, The Deficit...
That is a really good question, "What's Up With the Economy?"! The best analogy is the economy is sorta like a really nice business train that is slowly chugging along and starting to lose passengers at each stop. I think this is an accurate picture because the data is definitely mixed, showing corporate businesses are doing quite well and chugging along, like the train. The passengers being lost at each stop are comparable to middle-class Americans that are being negatively impacted by: 1) high gas & food prices, 2) declining housing prices, 3) still high unemployment numbers. And the biggest problem is JOBS, JOBS, JOBS, or the lack thereof. Jobs are so critical because they give Americans confidence that the economy is getting better when they see their neighbors getting up and going to work, coming home with bags of groceries, and investing in their homes. So who is focusing on getting more Americans jobs? That's the question that needs to be asked of everyone from the president and his administration, to your senators, then your local congressmen, and also of the companies that are doing well. Every moment should be spent on turning the dismal job scenario around and we've seen our politicians come up with some solutions but not nearly enough. The formula is not that difficult as it usually comes down to stimulating Americans and stimulating the companies who are tasked with hiring more Americans. Its a shame the debate in Washington is whittled down to spending versus tax cuts, but that has been the case. Last time I checked both scenarios cost taxpayers money but are needed to bring this economy back to life.
Wednesday, June 01, 2011
2nd Quarter 2011: 3 PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS
The second quarter of 2011 has produced three stocks that Urbanomics subcribers will have access to review. These stocks are consistent with sectors that I believe should outperform in the current economic environment.
1st Premium Pick
STOCK: ******
BASIC MATERIALS
OIL & NATURAL GAS
TIP: This oil & gas play has planned big changes coming by the end of the year. Look for it to double, literally!
Click here for the other two premium alerts.
1st Premium Pick
STOCK: ******
BASIC MATERIALS
OIL & NATURAL GAS
TIP: This oil & gas play has planned big changes coming by the end of the year. Look for it to double, literally!
Click here for the other two premium alerts.
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