All I need is a little bit...

Yeah this line was coined by my boy 50 Cent for awhile. And word on da street...wall street that is...was that Fiddy was on Cavuto, a financial show probably showing off his investment muscle. Now I haven't seen the clip of his on the show but can he have time to be making the returns that we are over here at Urbanomics. Maybe after his stake in Vitamin Water got bought out, but we bring the platinum picks and he brings the platinum hits.

Today I wanted to write about Emcore (NASDAQ:EMKR), if you have been patient with us...and btw you haven't had to wait long, we hit our target already. Yes boys and girls, EMKR was up around 8% on no news that I am aware of. This volatile stock, was a short term pick of mine and for anyone following I am selling EMKR here. This is a quick 10% gain and I will look to revisit my friend EMKR when it declines back to a price around $10. I would Superman this stock back at the $9.15 level and be a strong accumulator around 9.79.

Lastly I spoke to soon on Adaptec (NASDAQ:ADPT) by about a day or two. I was getting some weird stock chart readings on ADPT and it didn't jump like I had expected. But here is the good news, ADPT reported earnings and beat estimates by .05c. That led the stock higher and if you read into the earning release by the CEO, you will also notice what I call is a subtle hint at good things to come for us. Attached is the comments, provided by Market Wire:

"While our top line results were above the company's expectations, we continue to face difficult market conditions," explained S. "Sundi" Sundaresh, president and CEO of Adaptec. "Despite these challenges, the company has made significant progress during the quarter in several key areas: our restructuring plan announced last quarter is on track to fully realize the expected savings by the end of the fiscal year; our Data Protection and Storage Solutions groups have each released new products and the early indicators of customer reaction are positive; and we reached an agreement with Steel Partners, and together, I expect, we will pursue a course designed to maximize value for all of our stockholders."

Urbanomic readers, I know one thing and when companies align with Private Equity firms to MAXIMIZE VALUE...that usually means great things for stockholders because they lead to buyouts, stock buyback programs, splitting up the company, or anything that makes them money. Hope you jumped all aboard ADPT, b/c again you could have had ADPT at 3.40 today which is the price that I have REPEATEDLY said is a great level to continue to add shares.

Enjoy the quick hit gain with EMKR and lets watch ADPT open higher tomorrow.

Disclosures: I sold EMKR today

Welcome to the Good Life

I go for mine, I got to shine...Now throw you hands up in the sky! This is the third track off of Kanye West's "Graduation" album featuring T. Pain. Now this is the jam, but I am not sure what life Kanye was referring too. It's interesting I find myself not writing as much whenever there is a lot of turmoil in the market. This usually also reflects turmoil in the world, which then reflects itself through the market. Let's see, we have major financial companies, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, and Wachovia Bank all getting hammered by the weakness in the credit markets and the mainly through the bad investments that were made. Add to that the mortgage crisis in the US which has led to homeowners everywhere defaulting on their homes. All the companies in these areas, which were once living the "Good Life" are singing the blues and laying people off. Then there is that pesky thing called energy...it currently sits at levels that are unthinkable. Oil is reaching levels of roughly 90 dollars a barrel and predicted to continue to rise. Now maybe I am too young to really know what I'm talking about but there has been the "R" word thrown out by some analysts and that would be RECESSION and from what I am seeing in the markets I don't think that some of the whispers are too far off.

I am no mathematician but poor financial markets + bad consumer debt + rising foreclosures + declining property values + layoffs = something is wrong (possibly RECESSION). I am not comfortable with the volatility in the market because as companies are beating earnings or being upgraded they go up and then immediately the market brings them right back down due to all the negative news. Now Warren Buffet wouldn't care because he's in it for the long haul (and he's rich), so for the rest of us that were out there speculating its time to take gains were it makes sense and build on our recession proof stocks...like dividend stocks. I like buying stocks that make products that we continue to buy even when times get tough and I still like technology. You'll appreciate the following updates:

Advent Software (ADVS) - reported positive earnings today; (technology)
Radisys (RSYS) - upgraded by Cantor Fitzgerald, price target raised from 11 to 18 (technology)
Emcore - coverage initated with BUY by Roth Capital (technology)
Burlington Northern (BNI) - reported positive earning (transportation)

They have a few things in common being technology plays and one defensive plays. I think this will be the direction to go for awhile.

URB Update - NAVTEQ, Advent Software, Emcore

Here is a quick weekend update, as I do a periodic review of some our stocks in the news. I like to follow our picks through major newspapers, websites, and analyst reviews. The following stocks were commented on in the last two weeks or have major updates that require our attention. The stocks I will highlight are Emcore (up 10% in two days), Navteq (takeover target), and Advent Software (up roughly 20% in less than two months)

I will start with the newest recommendation, Emcore (EMKR):
This is a love/hate relationship with this momentum stock. As you recall we got this stock at our price point just a week ago. And luckily, we keep an hawkish eye on our new picks, because HIGH risk momentum stocks are labeled that way for a reason. This stock has experience great gains in roughly two day, but on Friday we got some shocking news, at the worst time. Late Friday, it was released that EMKR received an noncompliance notice from the NASDAQ...this is bad news...very bad. So now we must watch this stock closely on Monday...first off, follow my lead and remove and cancel any price points that were initially set, yes including our Superman price. Next, if you don't have the time to follow this stock on Monday, place a Stop Loss to sell this stock at 9.75. Why this price, because it appears that this stock is being impacted by the bad news. We were up to the 10.70 range on Friday, but when the news was released after the market closed...the stock appears to have declined in aftermarket hours. The lowest aftermarket price disclosed on Yahoo Finance was 9.85. If the back news is picked up by the rest of the investors out there like us, we will see further declines. If we set a Stop Loss of 9.75 it will automatically sell the investment at that price. And yes, we will walk away from the investment and wait for the dust to settle. I would like to revisit this stock but we need to wait until EMKR is compliant without a doubt with the NASDAQ. I am unsure how this will impact their scheduled earnings announcement.

Here is an article from Marketwatch: EMKR said late Friday that it received a letter from Nasdaq on Oct. 2 stating that the company is not in compliance with the exchange's listing requirements, and that its stock is subject to delisting. The provider of compound semiconductor-based products said the notice was expected and was due to its inability to hold an annual shareholders' meeting by Sept. 30. Emcore plans to submit a letter to request an extension to regain compliance with Nasdaq's requirements.

Navteq (NVT):
This analysis was provided by an analyst at Zacks.com -
NAVTEQ Corporation (NVT) has done a great job navigating for profits. Surging demand for maps in portable devices and some easier-than-expected expenses are contributing to outsized earnings gains. The company just reported a 72% profit gain and raised full-year guidance. Over the past 60 days, this year's estimates have jumped 19 cents to $1.52 per share. The past two quarters have averaged a 57% positive surprise. Analysts are projecting 20.4% growth over the long term.
(Note: On 9/27, NVT was listed as their aggressive growth pick of the day in their daily "Profit from the Pros" e-newsletter)

Advent Software:
This analysis was provided by an analyst at Zacks.com -
Advent Software, Inc. (ADVS) is enjoying phenomenal growth and its chart reflects it. The stock has been on a rocket ride since late July, after posting a 350% positive earnings surprise. Over the past 90 days, this year's earnings estimates have soared 12 cents to 33 cents per share. Analysts are projecting 27.8% earnings growth in 2008 and 21.7% growth over the long term.
(Note: On 9/27, ADVS was listed as their momentum pick of the day in their daily "Profit from the Pros" e-newsletter)

Lessons Learned, this means we should have SOLD EMKR when you get up 10% in one day, we were dead on with NVT, and we will be holding onto ADVS because were were exactly right with this momentum pick. As Jim Cramer often reminds us Bears make money (ppl who make money when the market goes down), Bulls make money (ppl who make money when the market goes up), and Pigs get slaughtered. We were pigish on EMKR and we've learned.

URB Platinum Picks ~ October '07

I am back with another update for October. We have had a great year so far and the plan is to continue the run into the end of the year. Urbanomics has enhanced the site to allow for you to track my picks as they are made (thanks to socialpicks). Every now and then I will detail ways for you to identify stocks that work for you...follow the Urbanomic Rules. I will place limit orders in for all of these stocks at the specified prices below. I will also disclose at the end of the post what stocks I was able to buy.

URBANOMICS RULE 1: Find and Stick with a strategy
I have run my most recent screen and I've included my latest picks below with background detail. Screens can vary depending on the investor's risk tolerance and expected return and can focus on Price to Earnings Ratio, Analysts Upgrades, Chart Analysis, Earnings Per Share (EPS) Revisions, and Institutional Ownership. Pick a strategy that works for you, backtest it to see how effective it would be, and stay consistent.

URB October Platinum Picks (In honor of Kanye West and 50 Cent)
I have multiple price points which I will explain in later Urbanomics RULES, but you will see a normal price point, and a SUPERMAN price point. Search the site for a better understanding of the Superman concept.

EMKR BUY @ 10.04
- Emcore is a semiconductor company that has run into a little bit of trouble. Accounting for pesky stock option grants has long been despised in the technology world. Well apparently EMKR didn't get the memo that is was a regulatory mandate to comply with. The great news is EMKR looks to be compliant with the SEC and the NASDAQ in October '07. Shares of Emcore have been on a tear in the last two weeks. It was up 15.8 percent for the week of Sept 21. During that week, EMKR was upgraded by an analyst to "Market Perform". Finally, EMKR is set to report earnings which could be a major catalyst for upward momentum. I will reiterate there is a 'Flight To Technology' within the market and their products support industries that are in high demand (solar panels, wireless, fiber optics). Look to exit is momentum slows down after the earnings release.
Superman Price: EMKR BUY @ 9.59

EMAG BUY @ 8.00
Emageon Inc has recently had an analyst initiate coverage with a "market outperform" rating. The target price is set to $11. EMAG is gaining market share and new product launches should provide more revenue down the road. A recent acquisition is increasing the number of clients and they have seen support levels above the stock's 52 week low. This stock hit a low of 8.09 today, so we're getting close.
Superman Price: EMAG BUY @ 7.42 (52wk low)

TRMS BUY @ 6.95
Trimeris Inc is a company with a good revenue stream, but has been hit hard by poor management. The stock has been falling recently due to both TRMS and Roche pulling the plug on a joint product. With Wall Street believing this company is poorly run, look for what I love to call is a catalyst such as management being pushed out or an outright sale. With a dramatic drop in stock price and market cap...Roche could be a likely buyer. With bad news out there, wait for more declines until we get to our price level. You can take a small bite at 7.11 or lower.

LAMR Buy @ 48.38
Lamar Advertising has been on my watch for awhile and has been mentioned in other posts. I was slow to react to this stock and I've paid the price. The price appreciation has been moving rapidly and I definitely have missed the intial momentum opportunity. LAMR which provides outdoor advertising space, is moving up as an analyst said is raising his forecast due to the deployment of 350 digital billboards next year. That's all we need is more distractions on the road. But guess what...Federal Highway Administration is approving the installation of digital billboards along roadways. This stock is getting away from me so, their can be small blocks bought around 49 and 50.
Superman Price: LAMR BUY @ 47.36 (Good luck I but limit buys in but I don't have my hopes up)
47.36

Disclosure: I bought EMKR today @ 10.04 on 10/4/07. This post was started on 10/02 but completed on 10/04.