URB Update - NAVTEQ, Advent Software, Emcore

Here is a quick weekend update, as I do a periodic review of some our stocks in the news. I like to follow our picks through major newspapers, websites, and analyst reviews. The following stocks were commented on in the last two weeks or have major updates that require our attention. The stocks I will highlight are Emcore (up 10% in two days), Navteq (takeover target), and Advent Software (up roughly 20% in less than two months)

I will start with the newest recommendation, Emcore (EMKR):
This is a love/hate relationship with this momentum stock. As you recall we got this stock at our price point just a week ago. And luckily, we keep an hawkish eye on our new picks, because HIGH risk momentum stocks are labeled that way for a reason. This stock has experience great gains in roughly two day, but on Friday we got some shocking news, at the worst time. Late Friday, it was released that EMKR received an noncompliance notice from the NASDAQ...this is bad news...very bad. So now we must watch this stock closely on Monday...first off, follow my lead and remove and cancel any price points that were initially set, yes including our Superman price. Next, if you don't have the time to follow this stock on Monday, place a Stop Loss to sell this stock at 9.75. Why this price, because it appears that this stock is being impacted by the bad news. We were up to the 10.70 range on Friday, but when the news was released after the market closed...the stock appears to have declined in aftermarket hours. The lowest aftermarket price disclosed on Yahoo Finance was 9.85. If the back news is picked up by the rest of the investors out there like us, we will see further declines. If we set a Stop Loss of 9.75 it will automatically sell the investment at that price. And yes, we will walk away from the investment and wait for the dust to settle. I would like to revisit this stock but we need to wait until EMKR is compliant without a doubt with the NASDAQ. I am unsure how this will impact their scheduled earnings announcement.

Here is an article from Marketwatch: EMKR said late Friday that it received a letter from Nasdaq on Oct. 2 stating that the company is not in compliance with the exchange's listing requirements, and that its stock is subject to delisting. The provider of compound semiconductor-based products said the notice was expected and was due to its inability to hold an annual shareholders' meeting by Sept. 30. Emcore plans to submit a letter to request an extension to regain compliance with Nasdaq's requirements.

Navteq (NVT):
This analysis was provided by an analyst at Zacks.com -
NAVTEQ Corporation (NVT) has done a great job navigating for profits. Surging demand for maps in portable devices and some easier-than-expected expenses are contributing to outsized earnings gains. The company just reported a 72% profit gain and raised full-year guidance. Over the past 60 days, this year's estimates have jumped 19 cents to $1.52 per share. The past two quarters have averaged a 57% positive surprise. Analysts are projecting 20.4% growth over the long term.
(Note: On 9/27, NVT was listed as their aggressive growth pick of the day in their daily "Profit from the Pros" e-newsletter)

Advent Software:
This analysis was provided by an analyst at Zacks.com -
Advent Software, Inc. (ADVS) is enjoying phenomenal growth and its chart reflects it. The stock has been on a rocket ride since late July, after posting a 350% positive earnings surprise. Over the past 90 days, this year's earnings estimates have soared 12 cents to 33 cents per share. Analysts are projecting 27.8% earnings growth in 2008 and 21.7% growth over the long term.
(Note: On 9/27, ADVS was listed as their momentum pick of the day in their daily "Profit from the Pros" e-newsletter)

Lessons Learned, this means we should have SOLD EMKR when you get up 10% in one day, we were dead on with NVT, and we will be holding onto ADVS because were were exactly right with this momentum pick. As Jim Cramer often reminds us Bears make money (ppl who make money when the market goes down), Bulls make money (ppl who make money when the market goes up), and Pigs get slaughtered. We were pigish on EMKR and we've learned.

Class Is In Session...

and when I blog you listen, readers please don't doubt the need for you to pay attention. Now that wasn't a complete freestyle, because I took a few words from one of my favorite artists. But I do want you to take a few words from the Urbanomics "Throwback Movie of The Day". It is the one and only movie "Wall Street" starring Charlie Sheen and Michael Douglas. The line is from a high powered, ruthless, and greedy investment broker Mr. Gordon Gekko. And it goes a little something like this:

"I don't throw darts at a board. I bet on sure things. Read Sun-tzu, The Art of War. Every battle is won before it is ever fought."

And even though Gordon Gekko is a cunning individual, he has one thing correct, I don't throw darts either...although there is no such thing as sure bets, we must put in work to win the battle before its fought. And that's what I am doing here for you folks. The battle is won with hard work and doing things you love. Now some people keep count of your victories, others will say lucky guess, and others may call you crazy but you gotta believe. So if you read the post I created just yesterday you may say a few of these things in disbelief. Now I am not ruthless like Gordon Gekko in "Wall Street" because he cheated to get ahead. He used information that wasn't accessible to the public and benefitted from trading the stock. Yes ladies and gentlemen, ala Martha Stewart he was participating in 'Insider Trading'.

The difference is I gave you the reasoning behind why I believed in GPS stocks yesterday. I gave you the basic principles that I learned from Peter Lynch so that you can follow along with me. Invest in what you know...right in front of you're eyes.

What unfolded right before our eyes was kinda crazy, not only were we on the money but Nokia must have been listing to what we were saying...because they have arranged to acquire Navteq in an 8.1 billion dollar deal today. See my post from yesterday. The following release was taken from Navteq website:

Nokia to acquire NAVTEQ

The combined entity would create a leading global player in the fast growing location based services marketNAVTEQ to support existing customers as before .
October 1, 2007 -- Nokia and NAVTEQ today announced a definitive agreement for Nokia to acquire NAVTEQ. Under the terms of the agreement, Nokia will pay $78 in cash for each share of NAVTEQ including outstanding options for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $8.1 billion (€5.7 billion), or approximately $7.7 billion (€5.4 billion) net of NAVTEQ existing cash balance. The acquisition has been approved by the board of directors of each company and is subject to customary closing conditions including regulatory approvals and NAVTEQ shareholders’ approval.
The navigation area is a fast growing business, and with location-based services expanding rapidly into mobile communications devices, the industry is poised for even further growth. NAVTEQ brings a number of key assets to Nokia: a great team with best-in-world maps and navigation industry expertise, a strong customer base and an industry-leading map data and technology platform with the broadest geographical coverage.

I will leave you with another memorable quote from "Wall Street":

The richest one percent of this country owns half our country's wealth, five trillion dollars. One third of that comes from hard work, two thirds comes from inheritance, interest on interest accumulating to widows and idiot sons and what I do, stock and real estate speculation. It's bullshit. You got ninety percent of the American public out there with little or no net worth. I create nothing. I own. We make the rules, pal. The news, war, peace, famine, upheaval, the price per paper clip. We pick that rabbit out of the hat while everybody sits out there wondering how the hell we did it. Now you're not naive enough to think we're living in a democracy, are you buddy? It's the free market. And you're a part of it. You've got that killer instinct. Stick around pal, I've still got a lot to teach you.

Let's all own and make the rules, the right way ~URBANOMICS

Do you know how to get there...

Is a common question you get nowadays when travelling somewhere. The answer has now been simplified to a VERB that references a webpage. It usually goes something like this: Well I'll MAPQUEST it, or don't forget to GOOGLE it, or hey I'll look it up on Yahoo Maps. And for the sophisticated crowd they will be happy to let you know that they are looking up directions on their Global Positioning System (GPS) device. You have seen the increase in commercials telling us to use "Tom Tom" or a "Garmin" GPS device to get you to where you need without much thought on your part. And when you go to Google, Mapquest and Yahoo have you ever noticed the little company in the corner of the map with the trademark. It usually says NAVTEQ, which is the provider of digital mapping technology.

So I am bringing up the obvious because when I read a book awhile ago by legendary investor named, Peter Lynch, one of the themes I took away was INVEST IN WHAT YOU KNOW. And what I know is there is definitely a buzz around GPS devices and digital maps. So I remind all Urbanomics readers...when something is in front on your face, don't overlook the obvious. A friend of mine just bought a portable Garmin device that can be used inside and outside of the car. And the other night as we headed to a new club, my brother used the computer to get directions to the location. Lastly, I am in the search for a new car and for the first time ever I included in my search the cars with navigation technology.

So what companies are leading the way say in digital maps and GPS technology. Check these companies out:

GARMIN (GRMN) - maker of GPS devices
NAVTEQ (NVT) - digital mapping
TRIMBLE (TRMB) - maker of GPS devices
SIRF TECH (SIRF) - maker of semiconductor chips that are used in GPS devices

So if I am an average person and I realize the growth of this industry its pretty easy to guess that so have the guys on Wall Street. Need proof, just look at the stock prices of these companies. I think GRMN alone is up over 60% this year alone. So why am I telling you to talk a look at this group, because just like other technologies that were in the stages of taking off, like the IPOD, mapping technology will become a household function used everyday in cars, on the computer, and through portable devices. These stocks are richly valued so wait for an opportunity to buy them, especially going into the holiday season. One thing that I also have learned is that its difficult to price a fast growing stock like the ones listed above...they could keep going up and up.