AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (AMC) - Detail on a 200% Move in 24 Hours

#MansaMusaMentality

#BreakfastClubforStocks - get your Sherlock Holmes on with news, reports, and data for stock investments ideas

This post is a part of my #MansaMusaMentality series and how I invest. Almost like case studies (known as "Details"), I'll highlight how I invest in assets such as real estate, stocks, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, etc. And I want to foster a community culture, so I'll show you how I learn from them and maybe in the future we can crowdsource or here we call it #tribesource investment ideas for the future.

"Detail" - A Breakdown of my AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (AMC) Investment

Year(s): 2019 + 2021

Throwback Link(s): 

March 2019: 2019 Investment In AMC

Jan 2020: https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2020/01/2020-kick-off-reflect-but-expect.html

July 2020: https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2020/07/is-stock-market-weak-or-should-you-be.html

September 2020: https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2020/09/how-being-risk-focused-allows-me-to.html

This "Detail" is about how I found this investment. Quite simply, I kept my ears to da streets. My life is not dedicated to stocks because it's not my main hustle but I do my research, use my network of connections, and make smart informed decisions. Because I've amassed a nice investment empire, not the size of Mansa Musa, I'll be damned if I leave it to someone to manage and eat all my profits. I (AND YOU) can manage your money yourself. Just like how I listen to the Breakfast Club for the culture, I listen, read, and aggregate data for that stock culture. Again, if I have time for the Breakfast Club morning show with Charlamagne tha God... I can also make time for my stock version of the Breakfast Club.  What's your excuse??

I won't be putting this stock in my #MansaHallofFame because at the end of the year I strategically sold off most of my shares to offset the fact I had such a 2020. This tax season would have been painful if I didn't use the losses I had in AMC to make it seem like I didn't have a big year (this is called Tax-Loss Harvesting, yes its legal, should out to my accountants). Ironically, if I hadn't done the prudent thing and sold off that position this would have made my #MansaHallofFame list of investments.

So how did I find this stock? I got my Sherlock Holmes on and did my own research. I keep a log of my research and ideas so don't test me. 

How do I get my Sherlock Holmes on? Depending on your age you might prefer: X-Files, Murder She Wrote, Columbo :)   Here's what I found:

Stock Investment Idea: AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (AMC)

Investment Takeaways: Notice in 2019, before the pandemic, I found a nice investment giving out a great dividend (a dividend is like getting a stimulus check every 3 months just for owning the stock) I was getting 4 checks a year from AMC just for owning the stock. With blockbuster Marvel movies coming out every week, this is something I traded based on what I saw around me. I knew there was a growing risk as streaming was getting bigger but I wasn't a heavy Netflix user at the time and Roku was still not a household name, IMO. A quick note, this was my own personal research, #BreakfastClubforStocks. You have all the links of what I was thinking back in 2019 and since then. Yes, you are smart enough to invest in things you use everyday...chances are others use those products and they may make great investments.

Outcome: 

I'm not going to get to technical but you read above that I sold off my AMC position at the end of 2020 which actually helps me reduce my taxes (advanced class moment). So the IRS in their tax code requires that I wait 30 days before I can start buying the stock again (Tax Loss Harvesting). Rules are rules and we follow them. 

But I was getting antsy and looking forward to rebuilding my AMC position. Why - because of 2 things:

1) Can't Nobody Tell Me Nothing Syndrome - I had a friend that told me even while my state was in "lockdown", their spouse was itching to get out and watch a movie in the theatre . I can't recall if they went (I think they did) but this reminded me not everyone views the pandemic the way I do. Many want to get out watch movies, eat at restaurants, and fly on planes -- even with the threat of the virus around. So what will happen once we can finally get vaccines in arms --- people are going to go crazy and forget they have homes for a few days.

2) CEO Goes on National TV - The biggest indicator it was time to establish a position in AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (AMC) was when Adam Aron the CEO of AMC went on national TV. He said the company just received enough $$$ that takes the risk of bankruptcy off the table. This is a game changer combined with the fact that in Point #1, people will want to eventually get out of the damn house and just do something. Unfortunately, I was 5 days away from being able to purchase this stock in my primary portfolio. So my only other option was to use my retirement account. I added AMC after that pivotal interview and the rest is...how do you say, history. 

For the Culture:

AMC Stock Chart on 1/28/21:

I'm a fan of getting your investment out and taking some profits. Then letting the rest ride...its the best of both worlds. Just don't get greedy. 

Is the Stock Market "Weak"? or should you be "Right Here" (SWV Mix)

I get so weak in the knees I can hardly speak.

I lose all control and something takes over me.

In a daze and it's so amazing, it's not a phase.

I want you to stay with me, by my side.

I swallow my pride, your love is so sweet.

It knocks me right off of my feet.

I can't explain why your loving makes me weak.

    ~ Artist: SWV     Song: "Weak " 

I was jamming to some classics and decided I needed the help of SWV to describe how I and many others feel about the economy, stocks, and life right now. Yes, only the classic hits of SWV and that soulful rhythm and blues (R+B) sound of the 90s can really assist in what this market is doing and how it's making people feel. I won't spend much time on the backdrop but if you need a reminder I tried to signal what was to come back in March. Remember it didn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the impacts of COVID-19 were going to be devastating. These simple facts were in front of us at the time:

- China and the Asia Pacific region had been shut down since early January and even Chinese New Year was canceled (something reported on each day from Beijing by Eunice Yoon and others)

- The market prior to COVID-19 was already near record levels. We hit those levels in my opinion around 2017 when I changed my investment style to ensure I wasn't holding stocks too long (which is contrary to what I believe in). While the market IMO wasn't overvalued, we were in the longest bull market ever recorded (if history serves me correct). Since then, the market continued to melt-up and made us weak in the knees that we could hardly speak. Truss 2019 was a great year, remember: Tesla, Okta, Sprint, Symantec Norton Lifelock, Audentes, Celgene. How good, I got rid of Tesla and Okta way to early. At the time, I was riding great gains, however; they continued to skyrocket further. I feel weak. To put things further into perspective Tesla and Okta aside...the remaining companies I named above ALL got bought out easily making 2019 one of my best years on record investment wise (and the worst personally as I lost my father).

- Finally, I was concerned about the US response to COVID-19. If you flip back to my March posts, I highlighted scenarios that are now playing out when there isn't much of a plan and poor tone at the top leadership --- I said you will get to a situation where US states would start to draw lines in the sand and say citizens from other states cannot cross state lines without strict conditions. Recently, the state of New York told people from 31 states you must quarantine for 14 days (IMO a statement basically saying don't bother coming). I was concerned about the US Lil Nas X culture of "Can't Nobody Tell Me Nothing" to an airborne respiratory disease... who knew that would seriously lead to daily fights about whether masks should be mandated.

So if the market is so SWV "Weak", why is the Nasdaq hitting highs everyday and my portfolio and your retirement plan feeling so good. Well that's where SWV "Right Here" comes in. The Federal Reserve and even Congress has been right here with STIMULUS. I don't have a running total but over $7 Trillion with a T has been pumped into the economy after it began tanking in March.  

Lately, there seems to be

Some insecurities

About the way I feel

Where I wanna be

Boy, you know it's with you

No one can do

The things you do to me

                                                                    ~ Artist: SWV     Song: "Right Here" 

haha The Federal Reserve came out swinging boy. Go back and look at the March lows and damn there were some insecurity about the way we felt. The things you do to us...well here is a list:

- Unemployment + $600

- Federal Moratorium on Foreclosures

- Stimulus Check

- Loans to Small Businesses (PPP)

- Economic Disaster Loans

- Purchasing Company Bonds

- $25 Billion Dollar Bailout to the Airlines

Was this response unexpected. Hell No, just look back to the Federal Reserve did back in the 2008 Financial Crisis. I wrote about it here and it even got its own name: the Tepper rally, for my dawg Billionaire David Tepper who laid out the investment thesis --- You DO NOT fight the Federal Reserve when they come in the big guns...they can print money longer than you can stay liquid (if you were betting the market would fall). And that's exactly what happened...they came in with helicopter money, making it rain.  Don't knock my hustle, read here how a strategy from a decade ago prepared us for what to expect:  Tepper - Don't Fight The Fed Reminder

I hope this wasn't complicated but I think you now get how to position yourself going into the end of year and 2021. As my friend said it best after reading my posts, the Federal Reserve and others won't let the machine fail (and this is capitalism👌).  Fast forward to today, the extra $600 unemployment boost IS NOT being renewed. A second stimulus check is coming but smaller and I believe going out to less people. The Federal Moratorium on foreclosures has been extended but what are you going to do if you are a renter...sign up for paying 1 year of back rent once you finally get a job?? This new stimulus package comes in at roughly $1Trillion which will put the government easily over $8 Trillion in newly printed debt...AND after this round I don't feel there is any appetite for more. With 2 new states recently surpassing New York in COVID cases (California, Florida) and states like Texas and Georgia never really shutting down and cases rising...I'm positioning myself for when the Federal Reserve stops pumping the economy full of steroids (whips I mean stimulus).  Delta and American have announced 25K + layoffs after their stimulus ends October 1st and I'm afraid many announcements like this will be coming if we cannot get the cases under control (basically a vaccine). I'll continue to ride the wave and not fight the Federal Reserve but I'll be sleeping with one eye open. Most of my retirement funds are in cash and I'm riding the wave from my personal investment account where I willing to take the risk. Don't get greedy.

My Free Trade Reveal: The stocks that haven't performed well in my portfolio. Notice the theme RETAIL:

COTY - Purchased @ $10  

AMC - Purchased @ $11

Foot Locker - Purchased @ $59

Kohls - Purchased @ 57

Tapestry (formerly Coach) - Purchased @ $30

Red Robin - Purchased @ $20

I was up at one time in all these positions except I believe Foot Locker and Kohls and decided to be aggressive. Lesson(s): manage risk, don't get greedy, and don't believe the hype. Restaurants and Retail are not doing well, bankruptcies are rising and I am working to get out of these positions.  Peace Out

2020 Kick-Off - Reflect But Expect Disruptions

If Regular People Did That Sh!t

Carlos Ghosn – The previous CEO of Nissan must have been watching the movie “Catch Me If You Can”. For those of you not paying attention, he had been jailed on charges related to misusing company funds – a charge alleged by Nissan.  Mr. Ghosn orchestrated an escape out of Japan that truly only rich people can get away with. So regular people if you ever get jammed up, follow what rich people do, not what they say:

First he was not required to wear any electronic monitoring device (smh).  Then Carlos evaded detection and took a high speed train to Japan's Osaka airport to board a private jet.  How do you board a plane when you been accused of damaging Japan's iconic Nissan company - well by jumping into a large speaker box used for concert equipment (remember to poke holes in it like he did or it might not turn out good). From there, the plane went to Turkey and his team got him onto a plane to Lebanon.  Why Lebanon – because Carlos’s game is tight he is a citizen of Brazil, France, and Lebanon. And Lebanon DOES NOT have an extradition treaty with Japan so for now he’s untouchable. To plot and possibly test run this escape, it took months and supposedly hundreds of thousands dollars.  So next time you think you’ve made it, ask yourself is your get outta jail card as good as Carlos Ghosn??

No Photoshop – A Real Look Back

I continually assess my performance to ensure I am reaching my goals and targets. Here is a look back at 2019 and when personally reflecting you have to be real about what worked and did not work. But I always caution patience, look at my list from the previous year end and surprisingly the areas where I decided to push forward paid off.  Here is a quick summary of Items that Did Not Work (in Red) and Nice Surprises (in Green):

·          Colony (CLNY) – Due to poor performance at this company, some investors have called for CEO Tom Barrack to step down. Investor(s) rationale: being a close personal buddy to Donald Trump has caused reputation risk to the company and has been and operational distraction for Tom. Who is the agitator: Blackwells Capital. Outcome: Unclear if it’s a coincidence, Mr. Barrack has named, Marc Ganzi, as his successor and the CEO transition will take place in 2021. 

·          AMC Entertainment (AMC) – AMC is a good example of poor risk management on my part. I had successfully traded this position multiple times for small gains. Using options, I was in a position that allowed me to finally own the stock even though I profess to hardly going to the movies because of the costs and now due to the ease of streaming. All was temporarily well after the most recent earnings call – revenue was up however earnings missed the mark. At first glance I was good, the stock rose and I had a profitable position. Bur the EPS miss may have been signaling a more significant problem - AMC is spending significant mounds of money to fuel the monthly subscription service called Stubs-A-List which is supposed to draw people back into the theatres.  Long story short, I should have done a proper risk assessment. It would have led me to a 5 second conclusion: I think movies are slowly declining business as streaming is the new trend. I think once AMC stops burning cash this stock will do well…but they’ve burned bridges with me. I’ll reevaluate after the next few earnings but this won’t be a long-term position.

·          Retail – This sector will continue to be difficult to trade as retail companies are reeling from too many headwinds: 1) Amazon, 2) China Trade Issues, 3) Changing trends (like working from home and athleisure wear), and 4) decline of malls. So yes my investments into Foot Locker, Kohls, and Stitch Fix were misguided because I thought I could dip my toe into the deep end of a pool for a quick buck and hop out.  However, every time Amazon flexed its muscles or supply chain disruptions were identified in China (from the Trump admin – China trade war in 2019) it was more like jumping in the deep end and remembering you’re not a great swimmer.  The positive is jumping in with Foot Locker, Kohls, and Stitch Fix is like jumping in with 2 experienced swimmers and one newbie who poised for breakout, respectively. At current prices, these stock have likely bottomed and but the rebound will take time.  Business and Life Lesson: Always set limits for short term positions and goals and don't be afraid to adjust or admit failure. If NOT, be prepared for the long-haul.  

·          Moore’s Law – If you’re not familiar with this law you should be. This law theorizes that computer processing doubling every year and I believe that semi-conductor chip makers are sitting in the middle of a revolution – Computer’s are more powerful fueling the Cloud, 5G phones, autonomous cars, gaming, streaming, televisions and the COSTS are coming down across most of these product segments. You’ve seen me dabble in chipmakers: Qualcomm and Qorvo but there are many more like AMD I need to evaluate.  I believe it’s fueling the investment trends of the future listed above and impacts all corners of life. See these examples below:

o    Sports - I joke other areas of our lives are impacted by Moore's law and are racing to reach a most optimal efficient state. Take sports – the games have gotten faster, the players bigger and smarter, the hits – harder, and the focus is now all about DATA analytics. When I used to play Sony Playstation's Madden NFL football game years ago, I always picked a team with a mobile quarterback. Fantasy football – same trend I foresaw years ago the path to racking up passing and rushing yards is through mobile quarterback. The rationale – Football is simple à keep the ball moving forward, limit the sacks and incomplete plays and good things will happen. Well we’ve come along way from Randall Cunningham, Michael Vick, Donvan McNabb and others being an outlier. Look who’s in the playoffs this year: Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, Ryan Tannehill. They took a theme I knew back in the early 2000s when I would pick Donovan McNabb or Michael Vick in Madden…which was "OPTIONALITY".  Just like in life on every play I wanted options - in football it was the option to Run/Pass/QB run to always gain positive yards.  Funny it took the league over 15 years to catch up to the obvious or wait maybe there was something more holding back the inevitable?  Live your life like water - find the most efficient path and then always give yourself OPTIONS.

o    AfroBeats – I don’t love the name for this music genre but hey I guess if Lil Nas X is not country music who am I to judge. The mix of musical influences is nothing new to life, however; I belive the only thing that holds the flow of music is labels and the radio stations. Moore’s Law to me is like water, life will find its most efficient path and that is happening in music. Everything is FLOWING to streaming, the cloud and to blending sounds. The only people that didn’t get the memo are Country Music execs in their denial of Old Town Road, but strangely I hear there are country rappers now. 👂 But back to the message: Amazing artists have blazed a path just like artists did in in Electronic/EDM when they infused the electronic sound with pop artists (unless you were tripped out...who wanted to listen to music with no words). But now African artists are getting their shine. Not sure what took so long because the music has been so good and so rich for so long (clearly when I would attend African parties or watch music videos during my trips to London). So now I’m happy to see really good artists blowing up mainstream:

§   Davido - Fall

§   Burna Boy – Ye

§   Koffee – Toast

§   AfroBeats – Drogba (Joanna)

§   Wizkid – Come Closer

§   Rotimi – Love Riddim

Props to Akon (Senegal), P Square (Nigeria), Rihanna (Barbados), Nicki Minaj (Trinidad and Tobago), and French Montana (Morocco) for continuing to blaze the trail. Even more than ever, we have African and Carribean infused music being played all across the world. Thanks to the streaming outlets for giving the people what they want. So prepare to be disrupted in your life - it's inevitable. Take Moore’s law and the music industry - disrupted Radio music execs and stations who always want to rinse and repeat music about cash, drugs, and sex now have to compete with the endless amounts of music on YouTube, Streaming outlets and Satellite Radio. This is a good disruption because allowing music to easily get out into public brings variety (and a many bad viral one-hit wonders) but I wouldn't have it any other way.  Our society and culture… are so much more that power being in the hands of few trying to curate our lives one song at a time.

Stay tuned - I'll post soon about the fear of World War III and the impact to your portfolio in case you haven't been watching Oil + Gold prices and stocks skyrocketing

The Plan - Can the Economy Grow Forever?

I often talk about the Pillars that act as a beacon guiding my life, business, and financial decisions so I like to revisit those from time to time.

                 Urbanomics Pillars: “Spiritual”, “Financial”, “Physical”, and “Mental”

We often preach about balance and diversification in the financial world but how often do people consider this in their day to day loves.

Financial –

I’ve been moving comma’s so don’t start no trouble with me…

I hear you Drake, keep moving those commas. My mission is to do the same while helping people in the process. But before I get started I’d like to remind people of the incident at Starbucks this past week. Can you imagine getting kicked out of a coffee shop just because of the color of your skin…and my response is YES.  Those young gentlemen were having a business meeting, trying to move comma’s but trouble, haters…and risk interrupted their lives.  This is not an isolated incident for many of us so I ask for them to stay strong and rely on their other Pillars for balance and keep pushing forward.  Here are my views on all things financial:

Stock Market - Again, you won’t find me writing much about the stock market these days because things are steady. I said a few years ago, when Mohammed El-Erian described this economic period that we are in as the “New Normal”, that I thought we would continue to bump along higher and higher coming out of the near depression period of 2008. So the goal has been to find amazing stocks at discounted values and when they rise, part way above your target level...part ways with them.  Why because we are in the 9^th YEAR of an economic rally (soon to be the longest in history). I’ve learned over time from Mohamed, Warren Buffett, and others to try to keep it simple. So find stocks you like, determine what is the ideal price you would buy it at…sometimes take another 5% of that number and wait to see what happens J

Remember Lululemon recommended in the 40s, Apple in the 90s, Alibaba in the 80s, Caterpillar in the 80s, Manchester United @ 14 if not use the search tool and track these old friends of mine down. I still holding Apple, Alibaba, and Manchester United as core holdings and am learning how to protect these holdings as they've appreciated nicely. So to the many people that say growth has dominated the market in recent years I agree but I remind them…for me it’s the long game and how much you bought something for and amazing even a few growth stocks like Apple and Alibaba will fall into your lap.

And for the people that trust in the process, support others, call out injustice when they see, and pay it forward here’s what I’ve been trading.  It’s my way of giving back…my free and very simple knowledge. A chart is included below and simply represents prices where I’ve had success trading these stocks over the last three to six months. The Column on the left are shares I've owned and traded options in. The column on the right I’ve just traded options only. The asterisk means I still own the stock:

Note: Please find the correct spelling for Qorvo 

More to come on how I'm planning for the future (real estate, biz development, taxes) as the soon to be longest economic rally history WON"T last forever. And yes...I was channeling Drake’s hit song God’s Plan when I was developing this post and was equally inspired by Kendrick Lamar and Jay-Z’s recent projects and social consciousness. Many blessing to them and to you all.  And if you haven’t seen the video, of course I recommend that you check it out here: