My Dougie

Said she likes My Dougie, I'm Fresh!

If I just lost you then you need to check out this track by artist Lil Wil...in honor of the legendary Dougie Fresh (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqeGZpHCURo). Down in Dallas, they have given this legend a new life with the younger generation as "My Dougie" is used to describe someone's style...Fresh. I hope the readers here at Urbanomics appreciate our blogging and hopefully you like our Dougie. And the reason why we think our style is fresh is because we hope to bring a difficult subject, INVESTING, and try to explain it to you in a very simple way.

To invest I've learned that you must have a certain style or swagger. The reason I say this is because with so much going on with the markets and in the news, you must remain calm and make informed and logical decisions. As we have written here before, to assist in that process I recommend that you take notes of things that you read and hear. Then perform additional research to assist you in deciding what to do. If you were following the news you would have heard about some of the following stories:

Lehman Brothers - One of the largest investment banks is struggling to raise capital as losses from investments continue to pile up.
Apple/Steve Jobs - Apple is unveiling a new iPOD touch, but all that is on the mind of investors is Steve Jobs and whether he is healthy.
Oil - Oil has dropped to levels of roughly 100$, and will OPEC allow it to drop any lower.
Fannie/Freddie - I love Alan Greenspan's (former Federal Reserve chief) comment that these entities were structurally flawed because they socialize losses and privatize gains! This is so true, when they are struggling the government bails them out, but when they were profitting the only people gaining were the private investors owning the stock.

Lastly, I have often talked about price points and how important they are when investing and getting your stock selections at a great price. My Dougie has helped me patiently wait and here are some of the stocks that I liked but I had to wait for great price points.

Electro Scientific (ESIO) - I have been patiently waiting for levels of 13.80s

Big Lots (BIG) - Big Lots has benefitted from the hard times as more people turn to discount retailers. This stock is not a result of my screening, just a informed decision that makes sense. They hit a 52 week high at 34.88 and I think they will decline from those lofty levels. With stimulus checks running out and higher costs hitting most retailers they appear to be a great short opportunity. I believe Walmart, Target and most recently 99 Cents (http://www.cnbc.com/id/26622876) are being affected by this. Big Lots is a great short above levels of 33.50$.

CSX Corp (CSX) & Fedex (FDX) - I have been saying for awhile I like the transportation sectors as oil prices continue to decline. Now I haven't identified a solid price point but this may need to be done as FDX is already raising their guidance which is causing the stock to rise. I am hoping to see the effect of declining oil prices to benefit these sectors.

I'm out, Get your URB on!

Which Direction Is Your Money Moving...

Okay here is the deal at least in my view, NOTHING HAS CHANGED. I am still pretty bearish on the overall market. I believe that it will at best move sideways for awhile. So this calls for a tactic that most people are scared of and that's staying on the sidelines. Yep, just sit back and wait for this collapse of the market to play out. I am still screening stocks but at this point there is so much scrutiny involved that I might as well be sitting on the sidelines myself. I have already told you a few months ago to prepare for battle by repositioning your retirement accounts (401K and IRAs) and brokerage portfolios for the long winter. Some of you may have listened and others just simply ignored my instructions. I have two 401k plans and in my older plan I sold my gains and moved into a defensive position: a money market account. My IRA account offered a better hedged and I moved my gains into Treasury Inflation Protected Securities or TIPS. They offer the current Federal Treasury rates, which are not big returns, but add the rate of inflation to your returns. And its no secret at this point that INFLATION has been picking up for a long time now. Just ask yourself, how much has the price of goods you buy gone up and I bet across the board...you say enough to feel it when you shop. At this point its about wealth preservation until things get better.

Those accounts had gains in them so I moved to safer ground as the markets decline plays out. However, the other scenario is my current 401K plan is dropping like Britney Spears career, but I have adjusted my holdings. And this is why I am not panicking...b/c I am still young. If you didn't have gains or are in the red...keep buying in as prices go lower because you are able to buy more shares than you were before. Lastly, in your stock portfolio you better have some dividend stocks to ride out this drought b/c they will create a floor if your stock begins to decline. The only stocks I am adding to my portfolio at this time are ones that are hitting my superman price! Remember that concept from earlier posts! I always create attractive levels that are difficult to reach and when they get near those targets I look to add positions.


I am following another set of stocks this month:

Electro Scientific Industries (ESIO) - This is a technology play that reached, "Superman" status...as Soldier Boy would say. I was patiently waiting for 13.80s after evaluating charts and buying patterns and the market has pushed this stock down to these levels. I bought small amounts at this point and will watch it closely.

Convergys (CVG) - Bucked the trends recently and is moving up nicely. Again to be honest its so difficult to not chase this stock. I liked it at the levels of mid 14s but it is moving. I will wait and again throw out the really great price of 12.90s as a Superman price.

CSX Corp (CSX) - If you couldn't tell I love the railroads and CSX has been on my eye as private equity firms continue to pressure managment to improving returns. Although shrewd, I love to hear that type of action because they often lead to the catalyst that we are looking for to move a stock. Not to mention, I already own BNI and I still love this industry for moving all those commodities that the world needs. And they have pricing power when gas is high and BENEFIT as gas prices come down to help improve margins. Jump aboard the CSX express. I love the lows today of 55 and am watching this closely. I don't have a superman price but stay tuned.

Disclosure: I opened a position ESIO

Black Friday Shopping

Isn't it funny that someone somewhere marketed the day after Thanksgiving as Black Friday. It has become the day where no one gets any sleep and we all get up and spend money selfishly. Kinda the opposite thinking for the day day before...THANKSGIVING! How many people are out there buying things to give them away to the less fortunate. Not many is what I'm guessing, but hey what do I know. But come to think of it a new GPS navigation system has been on my list for awhile and its funny that I am bullish of this industry as I think this will continue to be the trend.

I guess I am feeling like a little bit of a scrooge today because with a little bit of a rebound today in the market (its up roughly 1%) that my portfolio isn't moving in line with the market today. I even have Best Buy in my portfolio so what gives. So on a day like this when I should be shopping, I will give you my random thoughts of stock recommendations and things I've heard as I've kept my ears to the street:

E-trade (ETFC) - The rumors are this stock may be up for SALE, what the #$%$#. How is this possible, those pesky mortgages are likely the reason. Its up roughly 20% today on news that it could sell itself to TD AMERITRADE (AMTD) OR CHARLES SCHWAB (SCHW)

The retailers are making a move today, Target (T), Walmart (WMT), Kohls (KSS), Best Buy (BBY), Circuit City (C), and others are moving higher.

Urbanomics Recommendation of the Day:

I have had this one on my BUY list but I can't remember if I have ever formally recommended it here. The stock is Electro Scientific Industries (ESIO) Buy Price @ $19.47