Tell Me What's Happening: Interest Rates Rising / Homebuyers Are Hurrying

There are a few themes going on around me right now.  Is it just me or does everything seem a little 'CHOPPY'!  This seems to apply to the weather, the stock market, jobs, interest rates...and definitely GAS prices.  So I wanted to start a dialogue to help us understand why.  There is no point in me writing (or talking) much I want to post a few videos that may help explain why.

First up is Interest Rates. These rates help determine what our mortgage rates will be.  The Federal Reserve can manipulate interest rates to help speed or slow down our economy when it needs to...think like a treadmill.  They have hinted they may be doing less tinkering with the economy and that is making rates move higher.  Oddly enough, this may be great for homeowners as buyers may race to get in on this historically low rates BEFORE its too late.

Check this video out:

My Predictions On the Upcoming War... (Free Picks Included)

Well I had a very interesting discussion last week on wars...and that was in a bar, so I figured I'd keep going I guess.  I could talk about North Korea but I'd rather talk about a different possible war.  I started off believing that only athletes and musicians "make it rain" and usually in dimly lit places :)

At Urbanomics, we don't leave you out in the cold, here is a quick definition from URBANDICTIONARY.COM:

Make It Rain: When you're in the club with a stack, and you throw the money up in the air... The effect is that it seems to be raining money. 

Then, I learned about Central Bankers around the world and their endless access to cash and they put guys like Lil Wayne, Adam 'Pacman' Jones, and P. Diddy to shame.  Central Bankers (around the world) are the equivalent to the US version of Ben Bernanke, the head of the Federal Reserve.  Earlier this year, I wrote about Ben and how some very smart investors (see David Tepper, Ray Dalio) were telling us that when the Fed 'makes it rain' it's our job to pick up the money and buy stocks.  We did just that and we've rode the stock market ALL THE WAY up to all time highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the SP500.

Here is where the war begins...other countries don't usually like when one country prints money because their goods become cheaper and the people across the world begin buying those cheaper goods and so far this has helped the US economy. So guess what they in turn do...THAT'S RIGHT, they sometimes do the exact same thing.  So who is ready for battle, see JAPAN.  They have an official that has promised to 'make it rain' at levels that only we've seen in here in America.  Here's why I find this interesting...and how we make money:

Chicago Housing Market Is On Fire...

They often say "Real Estate" is local. The Chicago market appears to be showing POSITIVE trends that are similar across the country. I often view the Case-Shiller Report on housing in the 20 largest metro areas...and the one thing that I've been very bullish on is housing.  Numbers don't lie and homebuilders, home repair, carpet companies, and other housing related stocks have all been up.  As a matter of fact, I am so bullish on the sector that one of my premium alert picks has a connection to housing.  If you are a (1) New Homebuyer, (2) Existing Homeowner, or (3) On the sidelines, you want to review this video which show the Chicago market is moving well...and more importantly explains why.

See the video attached here:

1st Quarter 2013: PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS

1st Quarter 2013: 3 PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS

Please contact me directly (email_urbanomics@yahoo.com) to subscribe to this quarter’s premium stock alerts.  Find out what I have my eye on and more importantly when I will be adding these stocks to my portfolio.

1st Quarter 2013 Premium Stock Alerts

My 1st quarter picks are FINALLY OUT. I’ve been researching these stocks over the course of the last 3 months and found 3 stocks with margin of safety and the right catalysts.  Please see the following stocks that were sent to subscribers receiving premium alerts.

Stock #1: **********

Details

Sector: Financial Industry: ????? Tip I've got Montrose...and I'll even count Benton

Stock #2: **********

Details

Sector: Consumer Goods Industry: ????? Tip You need 1 for March Madness...

Stock #3: **********

Details

Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Oil and Gas Tip In Texas "Its The Law"

Its March and my newest picks are finally out. The Fed is 'Making It Rain' money and stocks will continue to do well. But I only really like stocks that have been beaten down...like they stole something. So its really getting difficult to find a lot of discounts. More stock reveals coming soon.

Urban Download...

Am I a degenerate investor...YES!  Most people will attest to the fact that I have a Wall Street Journal with me everywhere I go.  I like reading and taking in data because these bits of data each day may eventually lead to bigger things.  I may wanna know about the latest technology that is disrupting 'Business As Usual', random opinions about why gas prices are high, and I even keep up with companies that are Buzzworthy.  Some of these are great for talks around the water cooler, others good to know, and just maybe one day I may connect some dots and find something that makes a compelling argument for an investment one day.

Technology Disruptor

VIBER (http://www.viber.com/)

This app for your phone seems like a really cool idea.  They've been labeled the Skype for your phone and claim to allow you to call and text any other user for FREE.  No user ID is needed because it recognizes your phone number once downloaded and even automatically adds any friends that have VIBER without needing to search and add for those users.

Anyone using this app...please post your feedback

Things that Make You Go Hmmm....

I was listening to people that follow the market and the Gas industry and found the following details interesting:

1) Gas prices have been up every day since Jan 17th
2) Whenever gas has hit $3.80 as a national average...the economy has turned sour
3) From here going into the summer driving season, gas prices usually rise another 26%

Buzzworthy

Groupon - Everyone has an opinion on this stock. They reported earning and the market didn't like what it heard.  Down 24% 
GRPN Story

Zynga - The hitmaker of your favorite apps is making a brake for the 'Online Gaming' industry. Stay tuned. 
Zynga Bets On Gaming

Herbalife - The debate continues on whether this company is legit or a Ponzi Scheme.

Hewlett Packard - Back from the brink of death??? They will be selling a $169 tablet.

Yahoo - The CEO (Marissa Mayer) just told their employees that telecommuting is no longer an option. Ouch...get back to work.

Personal Finance - Budget 101 / Free Credit History

I often get a number of questions related to everyday finances and how a reader can improve their financial health.  First thing first, is to take care of the basic key elements.  The second thing is to is to do it as cheaply as possibly.  And yes, don't let anyone fool you...you can Do It Yourself (DIY)!  There are a number of personal finance lessons that I have written about in the past and I will attempt to go back and re-tag all those posts to include the labels "PERSONAL FINANCE".  I will create a link for easy access to these tips but remember you can search the site to find notes and tips to assist you get financially healthier.

1) Going On a Healthy Diet - Budget, Budget, Budget

I am personally a spreadsheet man myself.  I create a very basic Excel spreadsheet that I use to track all my budget needs. So search the Internet and you can find many tools to assist you with Budgeting 101.  The key elements don't change often, so follow these tips:

• Categorize every expense by type and don't use MISCELLANEOUS (Examples: Utilities, Food, Entertainment, Auto)
• Don't you cash unless remember to 'categorize' every penny...exactly "Don't Use Cash"
• At the end of a Month, your goal should be to have more "Income" than "Expenses"
• Don't be afraid to make hard cuts (sacrifice now for a better future, every penny counts)
• Pay down debts quickly, and FOCUS on high interest rates first (Credit Cards, School Loans, Personal Loans)
• Once you pay off debts, try to pay off any new debts 'Each Month'. I know every month
• Yes its okay to have FUN, but budget and categorize it
• Use the extra money from your budget to "Invest In Yourself". The goal is to create a rainy day account

I use spreadsheets and some people use envelopes, but the important thing to remember is to find a system that works for you and to stick to it. Just like working out.

2) Get on The Scale - Check Your Credit For Free

Unless you can pay for everything with cash, then you need to be honest with yourself and "Weigh In" from time to time.  Financially, weighing your self on the scale is "Checking Your Credit History".  This is the one time when you want your numbers to go UP! A higher credit number is much better than a low score.  Now don't get crazy, check your credit annually...no more, no less.  Look for errors and make sure you pay your bills on time.  There are 3 scales that you will need to weigh in with, and they are the 3 major credit bureaus: Experian, TransUnion, and Equifax.

DIY Tip: Don't listen to commercials or some salesperson over the phone, check your report FOR FREE.  Yes, the government passed a rule years ago allowing you and I to have a FREE view of our credit history, once a year...and it can all be done through one website!  If anyone else claims to offer this service, ask them if you will ever be charged...and don't forget to tell them that you are recording the conversation. That should do the trick :)    Here is the link:

AnnualCreditReport

Dow at 14000 (Pt.3) - The Markets Will Go Lower!?!

If you've followed my last few posts its very clear by now that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW) is trading right around 14,000.  The Dow is a broad representation of many companies throughout the US and is often used as a indicator by many investors. These levels are significant because they are very near all-time highs and more importantly a representation of how far we've come. If we go back four years ago, the DOW was at roughly 8900 and thanks to the American people, companies, government we've bounced back almost 50%.

  In PART 1 of this series (Dow @ 14000), I tried to show you how information available to the public can be used to develop your direction on where the markets are headed.  In short you should always be invested in the stock market but when the market is cheap you should invest more and when its expensive you should pull back some.  So clicking on the link above helps to show that through a little research the average investor can pick up on some signals that assist us in knowing when to buy stocks.  And who better to get some tips from then billionaire investor, David Tepper.  

So we participated in this nice run up in the markets, however; the REAL question is... will stocks continue to go up??  I guess the first thing to point out is there will be a correction! A correction in this case will be a pull back or a move down in the stock market. Simply put, a correction will likely happen because the markets have moved up in a straight line.  And think about the markets like you think about dieting...it never goes in a straight line (no one loses all of the weight all at once).  There will be really good weeks and a few bad ones and while the markets are getting healthy and losing the weight but they haven't had any setbacks.  You can almost hang your hat on the fact that there may be a pullback because so many investors are talking about the need for one to justify that this market is for real (one with fluctuations) and not just some type of fad (like with diets).

So now its time to listen to some really smart people who believe the market(s) may go lower.  First up is Jeffery Gundlach who predicts that another crisis is coming to world markets who will try to stall by pumping money (see 'Making It Rain')...however; this story likely leads to inflation and possible default for some countries. I've read the following link and found his points very interesting:

Gundlach's Negative View On Markets

Now that you've read the article along with me, I find it interesting that Gundlach wants to buy the following hard assets: 

• Gemstones,
• Art, and 
• Commercial Real Estate

When it comes to stocks he'll be investing in the following types of equities:

• Chinese stocks
• Nat Gas producers
• Gold Mining stocks

The next investor that believes that the picture is also a little murky is Marc Faber.  Please click on the link below to hear why Marc thinks the markets are due for a pullback:

What do you believe?!? If you feel that it's intuitive that markets can't just go directly up then you may be in the camp for a pullback because that is natural and healthy.  So you could benefit by selling some of your winners and/or by waiting for a pullback to buy more stocks.