Tip Cup - Thanks Roger

Now if you were rolling with Lil Jon, Bishop Magic Don Juan and Snoop Dogg...you might confuse their cup with my glass. While I wouldn't mind having a diamond encrusted Pimp Cup, I decided to stick with my personal Tip Cup. Now I know I get made fun of every now and then b/c if someone needing money catches me coming out of a bar/club, its about as good as gold that they are getting some money. But this time I would like to send a special shot out to another individual who donated to the Tip Cup. It wasn't my personal jar but a jar that always needs to be kept full. This gracious donor was the legendary Roger Staubach who sponsored his charity flag football event selected Big Brothers Big Sisters as his designated charity for this event. It was a professional event with a number of corporate sponsors who paid to meet, greet and eat with the Hall of Famer. An awesome event where a number of great objects, like signed photos of current NFL players, footballs, box seats all were silently auctioned off for a great cause. A special thanks to Roger and all of the people that made this night possible. Ohhh by the way I caught a touchdown pass from at Soldier Field that night. Yeah I still got it!!!

Why fly to tech...

Because, I'm like a bird I wanna fly away. That was my best version of Nelly Furtado and it was darn good. I can't go pop so time to get back to the basics. You wonder why previously I said their has been flight. You usually here the statement: "There has been a flight to quality". And all of a sudden the industry that we all have been running away from since 2001 is now the one that we are flying back too now that the financial bubble begins to rear its ugly head.

As usual I try to do the one thing most stock pickers don't do. All the websites and TV shows recommend picks but they don't do one thing that would have been helpful for me when I first got started and that was to recommend great entry prices. There have been a few simple concepts that have made a huge difference in how my returns affect my portfolio. Over the years, I have come to realize that entry price, transaction fees, dollar cost averaging, dividends, and earnings releases/market news have been important in understanding the stocks I pick and how much I buy and how long I hold. I would like to say that I am on the cutting edge by actually recommending an entry price but there is probably someone else out there making a bold leap and doing the same. But even some of my favorites, Jim Cramer, Fast Money crew, and Jim Jubak recommend picks but not exactly the entry price. Jubak probably comes the closest by disclosing he will purchase the stock three days (I think its still three) after he has noted that he will be buying the stock. So here goes my take on good ole' technology:

Adaptec (ADPT) $3.40 – Every portfolio needs a little risk and here is mine. This beaten down warrior blasted through its 52wk low. I see momentum action here that will create a floor and push this stock higher. If this stock every dips back to my recommendation price Superman that stock. I got in at $3.54 and since then this stock has gone up $3.82. It has come back a little and due to the markets negative outlook. I would accumulate at $3.50s if it dips and ride the short term wave to a nice quick gain. Save a little in the tank as this will be a great long term play.
Risk – Medium - High
Time Horizon – Short Term

Advent Software (ADVS) $39.25 – Another area not hit by the credit woes is technology. This company reported earnings in August and sales of their software geared towards investment companies and non-profit organizations grew at a decent clip. With the adding of new customers and management’s willingness repurchase the firms shares when they are trading at a discount, this company will continue to be rewarded for growth and look for an exit point of $45 to $47. My quick update is this stock is volatile and a little patience will be rewarded if this stock gets down back to my recommendation price.
Risk – Moderate
Time Horizon – Moderate Term


Zhone Technologies (ZHNE) $1.10 – Many well known investors note they would probably be small cap traders if they could start all over again in today’s world. And I don’t disagree with them. Small cap gives you the opportunity to accumulate a large number of shares just as a private equity firm would accumulate a large number shares for their investment portfolio of today’s medium and large cap stocks. The practice is to load up on a good thing (most funds hold a majority shares in the top 10 companies) and ride the great returns. But the problem with small cap stocks is risk… or should I say the perceived risk that in one quick swoop your $1 stock can become worthless. The way I recommend playing small cap stocks is find your entry point and give yourself some margin of safety to buy the stock. For example, I have indicated a target price for ZHNE of $1.10, but this is the margin of safety price after I noticed momentum at the $1.15-1.17 range over a month ago. On Aug 16, the death day of the market I got my margin of safety price of $1.10 and rode ZHNE for a few days and sold at $1.20. Well more momentum action is occurring at $1.20. I would say this consistent action should reduce our margin of safety and I would re-recommend ZHNE here at a range of around $1.15 to 1.17.
Risk – High
Time Horizon – Short Term

Ohh and I almost forgot my favorite tech stock of the moment, Radisys.
RSYS - This stock has tested the limits of the faint of heart. Many people watched this stock dip below the 52 wk low and thats when a technique that we discussed above came in handy. Dollar cost averaging allowed us to continue to buy this stock as it fell. The price here would be around the mid 10.80s. The "Superman that stock" price would be where I got lucky and repurchased the stock at 10.50s. If this stock drops to 10.50 I repeat...bring out the 18 Wheeler and jump all aboard. Notice the recent news of RSYS acquiring technology platforms from Intel has fueled a nice rally today. It could have been picked up today at around $11 but the nice upside move is just what the doctor ordered. It was reported the new acquisition will be completed in a little over a month and add around $50 million to the bottom line. Music to the ears of us buyers here at this point in the stock. Look for the completion of the acquisition and if as earnings begin to be revised upwards by analysts covering the stock...get ready for takeoff.

I'm Out....PEACE

Reader Response ~ Coming Soon

I wanted to send a quick shot out to all of my peoples out there who are tuning in to the new revolution. We are taking our future into our own hands one stock at a time. I have had a number of people with recent interest in Urbanomics analyzing their stocks, possibly managing portfolios, or simply wanting to learn more about the market. I appreciate the love and I will keep pushing forward.

The following were taken from a few emails lately:

"Check out the uranium sector...its going bananas. There has been some major pull back lately look for a rebound. One stock I own is SXR - Uranium One , check it out and let me know what you think......"

"Dude, I love your site! Is it time to buy more BNI yet? You still see it shooting up more? Is Best Buy still hot to pick up?...."

I will be answering these questions very soon, so keep em coming!

Flight To Technology

As I commented before, with the turbulent markets reeling from the financial industries woes there has been a flight to technology. This is understandable as many investors still search for growth and safety. I will apologize ahead of time because I have bought a few names but here are the stocks I will bring to your attention. Some are technology plays while others show positive momentum action in this crazy market.

Adaptec (ADPT)
Zhone Technologies (ZHNE)
Advent Software (ADVS)
Lamar Advertising (LAMR)
Gatehouse Media (GHS)
Wachovia Corp (WB)

I should have more on these companies later.

Disclosure: I recently purchased Adaptec, and Advent Software. I recently bought and sold Zhone Tech for a profit.

Reader Response - Berkshire Hathaway

Fred's comment:

I would have to agree that Buffett is the MJ of investments. No doubt BNI is pleased with the attention. Your love and knowledge of BNI is clear, so would you say that Buffett is trying to position Berk Hathaway for a takeover? (This article from NewsVisual makes a case for it: http://www.newsvisual.com/newsvisual/2007/08/as-berkshire-up.html ).

Urb Reader Response:

Fred, I wanted to say thanks for reading the article and throwing a very good question into the hat. After reading the article, it does make an interesting viewpoint on the many connections that BRK has with BNSI. However, I will use that same article and take a slightly different stance. I don't think that Buffett will buy BNSI because of the following:

- He has made multiple purchases in the sector and a quick SEC search will review his ownership in Union Pacific (10.5M shares) and Norfolk Southern (6.4M shares). I view these purchases as Buffett being bullish on the sector as a whole. Another long shot viewpoint could be he may try to use his influence to stir up further synergies amongst the companies. I would even say a possible merger, but I am unsure of the regulatory scrutiny over that type of transaction in this very mature industry.

However, I recently learned that Buffett had added an additional 845K shares to up his stake to 15% today. This again is another bullish sign for long term buyers.

Aug 28 - Urb Play of the Day

Have you witnessed greatness? How about Jordan... his "Airness" has had numerous moments where he has dazzled us. Taking off from the free throw line and flying through the air... his ability to defy gravity has often left me speechless.

Then you have the Michael Jordan of the investment world, Warren Buffet. His investment company Berkshire Hathaway continues to amaze us with timely investments that dazzle us with their ability to find companies with hidden value right underneath our noses.

Finally, some say I have come along and given hope where there was once despair. I have brought two worlds together, that some say couldn't exist. I know its difficult mantaining my natural swagger and love for hiphop and still dominating in the investment world. It's kinda like P-Diddy being your stockbroker you wonder could it ever be possible.

Now whenever I have a big investment, I have always told you to "Back That Thang Up"...ala Juvenile and buy tons of this stock. Well, I am releasing my Soulja Boy pick and telling you to "Crank That" and "Superman this Stock". I know... some faithful readers have been lost in translation but here we go. Crank That is my new reference loading up on a stock that I absolutely love. I am gonna superman this stock and give it a rating worthy of super hero status.

URB PLAY OF THE DAY:

"CRANK THAT" PICK -----> BURLINGTON NORTHERN SANTA FE (BNI)

I recommended this stock almost two weeks ago on strong momentum at the time. This was a time when most folks thought the sky was falling because of the subprime jitters in the market. The Dow went from an all time high at 14000 (See Dow Take a Bow) to skidding belowing 13000 in a matter of weeks (See The Dow and Beyonce's Fall). I still believe that the financial sector is in trouble but I won't rest until I find the best stocks out there. And boy have we found one. Go back to my post two weeks ago and you will see why I love BNI (See Balling on Wall Street Shopping List) . I disclosed then that I recently bought the stock at $79 and in the face of a deteriorating market watched it shrink down to $76, where I loaded up again. It was hard decision to make at the time but I played Soulja Boy's "Crank That" and it got me through the rough times. I was looking at my screens again tonight and all I can say is I love BNI, like a FAT KID LOVES CAKE. I promise you this stock opens higher tomorrow morning on more momentum.

And you keep asking who the heck is Soulja Boy and what does he have to do with my picks, well check him out here: Soulja Boy "Crank That"

Ballin' on Wall Street - Shopping List

Yeah, we’ve been through a rough period here in the market but you know what we’ve made it through. Reminds me of the song you’re guaranteed to hear when you fly down to Jamaica, goes a little somethin’ like this: “I can see clearly now the rain is gone, I can see all obstacles in my way…” The only problem is the obstacle is still somewhat in our way. The experts on Wall Street for the longest time were telling us that subprime issues were an isolated problem. How about this song, “Don’t Worry Be Happy”, should have played everything one of those idiots tells us that the subprime credit woes won’t spillover into the economy. So what has happened, it did spillover into the economy and “You Don’t have To Be Smarter Than a 5th Grader” to realize it would spillover rather easily. Hmmm let’s see if I can think of a few sectors that would be affected and why:

Mortgage – The source of the problem
Homebuilders – The receipient of the problem
Financial Services (Banks) – They financed the problem
Financial Services (Other), Retail, Consumer Services, Restaurants – They are the spillover groups that are hurt by people with poor credit, less disposable income, and fear that the money in their pocket today won’t stretch as far.

What’s left:
NOT MUCH
Energy, Commercial Real Estate, Utilities, Defense, Consumer Staples, & Technology

So with my shopping bag in hand, I am gonna hook you up with a Wish List like its going out of style. This is a mix of plays that is gonna get you on track for the long road ahead. And I’ve included entry points…the one thing most analysts out there never tell you. They tell you the good stocks but never at what point to buy them:

My Personal Shopping List:
Best Buy (BBY)- $44.00; Near a 52 wk low you are getting a steal of a deal. This best in class stock is expanding into China, pummeling the competition (Circuit City, Radio Shack,etc), and expanding into other consumer goods like appliances.

Risk – Moderate, you have a RETAIL stock, ride out the bumps to Long Term gains
Time Horizon – Long Term (over 1 year)

Burlington Northern BNI - $79; All aboard this stock. Folks one thing I’ve learned is when the best and the brightest on the street are onto something, like Brandy’s old hit “I Wanna Be Down”…I do want to be down with what they are buying into. And the railroads are being accumulated by some of the biggest names it the biz. I am going with the biggest name WARREN BUFFET. Yes, my main man is pumping serious cash into this stock which will create a nice floor for the stock.

Risk – Moderate, Transportation was the hot thing at the beginning of the year, but with stock prices cooling it has given us a nice entry point.
Time Horizon – Very Long Term – Buffet buys for the long haul so accumulate and store this one in the freezer. Call me in a few years when Buffet makes you rich

Equity One (EQY) $25 or below, Capital Trust (CT) $30 or below, Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) 101 or below, General Growth Properties (GGP) 49 or below – Remember the sector that I said may not be affected by the housing downturn, try Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) with exposure with COMMERCIAL property. GGP was my favorite in earlier posts until I saw the momemtum in EQY. I wanted this one at the lows of $23.75 but not happening ppl jumped all over it. And CT has the backing of Sam Zell purchasing mad shares, buy with smart ppl. JLL is on the move, check Zacks.com

Risk – Low; beaten down only because they have Real Estate in their names
Time Horizon – Short Term gains will exist, but these are Long Term Gems

Stay tuned for my next entry on Flight to Technology. Who would have ever thought when the market turns sour that we would turn to technology to lead the way. Well its happening.

Disclosures: I own Best Buy (BBY) and Burlington Northern at the prices disclosed. I will update you as I add REITs to the portfolio.