My job here is to keep it real and keep hitting you with the truth. Kinda like real hip hop in my day when Public Enemy came out with the track “911 is a Joke”. So get up a get get get down 911 is a joke in your town! Well I wanted to finish posting my thoughts about the economy as I had promised in my last post. A few things have changed that will start to temper my views, however. But in honor of Public Enemy I will “keep it real” and hit you with my true assessment of how the economy and the market look at this point. When I sat down and took notes about what I was going to write it was just about the economy…and I believe it will be important to also write about the market. Because although similar the two do not necessarily go hand in hand. The economy represents the REAL, the everyday real time stuff that going on today. Houses being foreclosed on is REAL, prices of copper (and people beginning to steal copper from construction sites) is REAL, the price of gas is very REAL. And the market is based many times on Interpretation…you often have to ask yourself what do I think is going to happen to the market or this stock and how did I just interpret data or information provided by the market, or Ben Bernanke (Federal Reserve Chairman) or the chief executive of the corporation that I own. So stayed tuned for that because I just remember that my views on the economy haven’t changed… but with an emergency rate cut of .75%, and now another rate cut of .50% begins to change my views on certain segments of the stock market.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
URBANOMICS UPDATE: SELL CHINA DIGITAL HOLDINGS (NYSE: STV)
For the 3rd time in less than 2 weeks I have bought and sold STV for more than 5%! I told you that I have just begun the art of reading charts and the charts don’t lie. I used to laugh at those commercials that promise to make you a chart reading pro, and even though I still think that they are a bunch of bulls$#@!, I am beginning to understand the rewards of chart reading. URB REAL LIFE EXAMPLE: My most recent example is based on my recommendation, I told you that my price point for STV was $21.50. STV fell to my targets and I received an alert yesterday to determine if I wanted to buy the stock again for the 3rd TIME! So I watched in and decided to get in YESTERDAY (1/30/08) @ $21.25. STV is up almost 10% today and I will place a limit order to sell the stock somewhere above $23.25. I will reflect this sell in my stock tracker also. And again if STV hits my target I will buy it for the 4th time and attempt to pick it up in my stock tracker also…so that you can see that multiple roundtrip buy and sell orders can be made on this stock.
Enjoy!!!
~J. Gotti
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Trying to Catch My Breathe...
Or better yet, "Let Me Clear My Throat". I am trying to catch up to a few things so far. For example, I wanted to follow-up on a previous post and I'd like to respond to a reader's comment left recently and of course I want to drop my personal thoughts on something that I nailed right on the head.
Follow-up to My Previous Post
First thing, is I wanted to briefly follow-up on my previous post that I was just now able to get around to. I really like Radisys (RSYS) at these levels and even in this volatile market...I stray away from posting a new Superman Price, but if I were it would go a little something like this. I am sticking to my original price point of $12.25, but I would Superman RSYS @ $11.85. Hopefully you'll remember some of my writings on price points because as I become better reading charts I really like using these points to determine my buys and most importantly my REPEAT BUYS. My real life example is today my limit order for RSYS filled at 11.85 and that is my repeat buy.
Next matter on hand, China Digital Holdings (STV). Warning, this is a very volatile stock so those with queasy stomachs beware. I will need to continue to monitor this one close but I stick to my earlier price points from my previous post. I bought at $21.50 and noticed quick profit taking at resistance levels of 22.70, maybe 23. Since then I have purchased and sold at the prices described here. And to show that I stand by my points I had a limit order fill today at roughly $21.50, and I will sell again at 23. Note: Although volatile, I believe this will continue to trade in this range for awhile. As noted I have already bought and sold this stock in the range and I will keep doing so for small but effective 5% gains. The first time it took two days to reach my 5% target and today when my 2nd limit order filled, I was please to see that our target hit again on the same day! I will be selling STV, very likely by tomorrow and looking to buy again and continue picking away at the 5% target.
Reader Response
Click here for my Reader Response to: Subzero Mortgage Freeze
Follow-up to My Previous Post
First thing, is I wanted to briefly follow-up on my previous post that I was just now able to get around to. I really like Radisys (RSYS) at these levels and even in this volatile market...I stray away from posting a new Superman Price, but if I were it would go a little something like this. I am sticking to my original price point of $12.25, but I would Superman RSYS @ $11.85. Hopefully you'll remember some of my writings on price points because as I become better reading charts I really like using these points to determine my buys and most importantly my REPEAT BUYS. My real life example is today my limit order for RSYS filled at 11.85 and that is my repeat buy.
Next matter on hand, China Digital Holdings (STV). Warning, this is a very volatile stock so those with queasy stomachs beware. I will need to continue to monitor this one close but I stick to my earlier price points from my previous post. I bought at $21.50 and noticed quick profit taking at resistance levels of 22.70, maybe 23. Since then I have purchased and sold at the prices described here. And to show that I stand by my points I had a limit order fill today at roughly $21.50, and I will sell again at 23. Note: Although volatile, I believe this will continue to trade in this range for awhile. As noted I have already bought and sold this stock in the range and I will keep doing so for small but effective 5% gains. The first time it took two days to reach my 5% target and today when my 2nd limit order filled, I was please to see that our target hit again on the same day! I will be selling STV, very likely by tomorrow and looking to buy again and continue picking away at the 5% target.
Reader Response
Click here for my Reader Response to: Subzero Mortgage Freeze
That nasty word...RECESSION:
and stay tuned for why I called the recession awhile back!
Disclosure: I own shares of RSYS & STV
Out of Sync...
This posting should be easy. Technically it was written on January 17, but it saved away on another laptop so this is the first opportunity that I have had to post my thoughts. It goes a little something like this:
Yep this year my goal is to sync up my recommendations with the handy little portfolio tracker that you see to your right of my site. This will help you understand how our recommendations are doing. The hard part is that it will never completely be accurate because the market is all about timing. When I recommend price points to you, I go out there and put a limit order to buy that stock, which helps me not have to follow its every move or make spontaneous buy or sell trades.
Limit Trade Definition: Instruction to execute an order for a stock only at a specified price or better. The broker continues the order until a specified date or until the customer terminates it. Assume an investor places a limit order to buy at $10 or less a stock now selling at $11. If the stock goes up to $20, the broker will not execute a buy order; if it falls to $10, the broker will execute a buy order immediately. (Courtesy of allbusiness.com)
Great examples:
Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD) – I recommended selling this stock here on my post but it remained on the tracking tool to see if my recommendation to sell if for a small loss was correct. And that appears to be a good decision, we sold RAD for a loss because we didn’t believe the fundamentals were there and the stock ended up plummeting even further. So that is an example of how the tracker can be used to display my thoughts, even though the losses appear much worse. Don't believe I recommended selling, use the search tool and look for all postings about Rite Aid or RAD.
Radisys (NASDAQ: RSYS) – This stock is an example of what I hope to be able to do from here on out when I recommend a stock. I post it here @ URBANOMICS and then buy/track it on my stock tracking tool. NOTICE, my price point for RSYS is $12.25 and I will place a limit order for this price until it fills (See limit order definition above). However, because the stock tracking tool does not accept limit orders I have to buy it at whatever price is available at the time (which I believe was $12.38).
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
New Recommendation – China Digital Holdings (NYSE: STV) is a BUY
China Digital Holdings (NYSE: STV) This is a great play, where I can’t take credit for finding this stock. Disclosure: This stock was not produced by my stock picking strategy, therefore I don’t have a lot of info which came as a recommendation from a friend who has been following the stock more closely. It’s Initial Public Offering (IPO), or the first sale of a corporation's stock to the public, was last year and it took off. But when the market cooled this stock cooled even faster. So my friend brought the stock to my attention and as my strategy often calls I began reading the chart of STV to identify a floor or resistance level for the stock. An easy floor if you believe the stock will rise and continue to do well is the 52 week low. I researched STV and found that the 52 week briefly brushed $20.64 yesterday and after looking at previous closing prices and intraday lows I developed my price point of $21.50.
Collectors Universe (NYSE: CLCT) – This a stock I have recommended in the past and they offer a huge dividend payout at the tune of 8%. I am re-recommending CLCT at 11.01 to take advantage of dollar cost averaging down, the dividend and potential growth.
Yep this year my goal is to sync up my recommendations with the handy little portfolio tracker that you see to your right of my site. This will help you understand how our recommendations are doing. The hard part is that it will never completely be accurate because the market is all about timing. When I recommend price points to you, I go out there and put a limit order to buy that stock, which helps me not have to follow its every move or make spontaneous buy or sell trades.
Limit Trade Definition: Instruction to execute an order for a stock only at a specified price or better. The broker continues the order until a specified date or until the customer terminates it. Assume an investor places a limit order to buy at $10 or less a stock now selling at $11. If the stock goes up to $20, the broker will not execute a buy order; if it falls to $10, the broker will execute a buy order immediately. (Courtesy of allbusiness.com)
Great examples:
Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD) – I recommended selling this stock here on my post but it remained on the tracking tool to see if my recommendation to sell if for a small loss was correct. And that appears to be a good decision, we sold RAD for a loss because we didn’t believe the fundamentals were there and the stock ended up plummeting even further. So that is an example of how the tracker can be used to display my thoughts, even though the losses appear much worse. Don't believe I recommended selling, use the search tool and look for all postings about Rite Aid or RAD.
Radisys (NASDAQ: RSYS) – This stock is an example of what I hope to be able to do from here on out when I recommend a stock. I post it here @ URBANOMICS and then buy/track it on my stock tracking tool. NOTICE, my price point for RSYS is $12.25 and I will place a limit order for this price until it fills (See limit order definition above). However, because the stock tracking tool does not accept limit orders I have to buy it at whatever price is available at the time (which I believe was $12.38).
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
New Recommendation – China Digital Holdings (NYSE: STV) is a BUY
China Digital Holdings (NYSE: STV) This is a great play, where I can’t take credit for finding this stock. Disclosure: This stock was not produced by my stock picking strategy, therefore I don’t have a lot of info which came as a recommendation from a friend who has been following the stock more closely. It’s Initial Public Offering (IPO), or the first sale of a corporation's stock to the public, was last year and it took off. But when the market cooled this stock cooled even faster. So my friend brought the stock to my attention and as my strategy often calls I began reading the chart of STV to identify a floor or resistance level for the stock. An easy floor if you believe the stock will rise and continue to do well is the 52 week low. I researched STV and found that the 52 week briefly brushed $20.64 yesterday and after looking at previous closing prices and intraday lows I developed my price point of $21.50.
Collectors Universe (NYSE: CLCT) – This a stock I have recommended in the past and they offer a huge dividend payout at the tune of 8%. I am re-recommending CLCT at 11.01 to take advantage of dollar cost averaging down, the dividend and potential growth.
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Playoffs...
"Playoffs...Don't talk to me about playoffs" is the infamous line in the Coor's commercial by coach Jim Mora. And even though its early in the year you have to treat your portfolio like its the playoffs. Its game time this weekend for the National Football League (NFL) and only the best of the best are around to fight for the title. And this is the approach that must be taken with your portfolio...only the best of the best will be accepted. The current market conditions: the value of the dollar, the credit crunch, the housing bubble, higher unemployment, deteriorating earnings, high gas, and the threat of inflation are just a few of the strengths working against you...kinda like the opponents defense in a playoff game. So the past week has seen me actively paying attention to the market. I gave you Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) just a few days ago as a momentum play as James Cayne stepped away from the company. That was a tough day for stocks you could have gotten in BSC anywhere from $71-$77 dollars. At all of these levels you would still be showing a profit at this point. I am not a huge fan of owning any financial companies at these levels.
My formal recommendation is to SELL Bear Stearns. However, informally if you got into Bear Stears near the 52 week low, I would licking my lips and thinking about keeping holding at those levels.
The next thing I recommend at this point is to closely watch analyst revisions and warnings of certain industries and companies. For instance, if you don't understand that the credit crunch is the real deal at this point and that ALL retailers are being affects EXCEPT for your discount and low cost retailers than you are napping on the market and deserve to be invested in index and mutual funds.
My next move this past week was to part with any RETAILERS that I own with a gain. The only retailer that I owned was BEST BUY (NYSE: BBY). BBY was sold for a small profit but this is an retail darling that I would keep a close eye on. As this stock continues to reach low levels and nears its 52 week low I would take our old price point and build in a 5-10% margin of safety. Our old price was 43.95 (need to verify that) and then I would think about buying in. I personally will lean towards a 5% margin because I think people with still shop at BBY for CDs, electronics, video games, and all discount priced electronics.
My formal recommendation, SELL BEST BUY (NYSE: BBY); look for points of reentry later
Lastly SELL gains with limited upside or in industries that will continue to lag the market. The following stocks are formal SELL recommendations:
Maximus (NYSE: MMS) - limited upside here after large institutional investors sold their stakes in the company...I walk when the big money walks!!!
Online Resources (NASDAQ: ORCC) - Sold after it soared to $12 and showed resistance at those levels (this was a nice gain in two months of over 20%)
Supertel (NYSE: SPPR) - I have owned this for at least a couple of years now. It was originally Humprhey Hospitality. Limited upside at this point (nice gain of over 60% in over 2 years)
Remember only go into the playoffs with the best players for your team. Now some of the best players can be guys that have performed in the clutch for you in the past. I say this because I am a believer of this philosopy. Need proof, check out Buffett's additional purchases of Burlington Northern Santa Fe's stocks at levels where he originally purchased the stock. My only wish is that I would have sold this stock (which we bought around $77) when it hit $86 and now we would be in position to buy again. So sell non-performers and hold cash for the Michael Jordan's, Magic Johnson's, and Larry Bird versions of stocks. My FORMAL BUY RECOMMENDATIONS will be a good number of stocks because the market is getting crushed here and I think plenty of stocks will surface with attractive values:
Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) - Buffett's back and so am I love at our old levels of $77
Best Buy (BBY) - This sector (retailers) is getting crushed so wait for proof that the bad times are over and catch this stock, further build in a margin of safety so you can sleep easy at night; consider buy with a safety @ 40, give a hard look @ 42
Maximus (MMS) - This is an attractive stock with mostly buy and strong buy ratings by analysts. The biggest long shot of my buy group; buy at my old post rec price of $29 & 30 dollars.
Online Resources (ORCC) - We loved this stock when the CEO promised he would put up his own money to buy shares of this stock. And we bought around $8.9 dollars a share. Anything under screams BUY
Radisys (RSYS) - Guess who's back! This stock was a 50% gainer for us last year, when we dollar cost averaged our purchase prices on this stock at levels between $10.60-13. We sold when it hit @17 and smiled all the way to the bank. Well it hit my STOCK SCREEN AGAIN, and I will be adding Radisys back to my portfolio. The recent 10 - 15 low is $12.25 and that is where I will set my buy target. This stock closed at 12.19, and with this stock back to my old buy recommendation levels, I am RE-Recommending this stock. I truly don't believe it will test its 52 week low of $10.50 and we have the help of an earnings release in early February that could propel this stock forward.
Zhone Technologies (ZHNE) - I am going to recommend Zhone Technologies and believe that dollar cost buying down at these levels will have positive upside. This has buy a roller coaster ride and hopefully after the short sellers have to recover there will be huge swings to the upside for this stock.
My formal recommendation is to SELL Bear Stearns. However, informally if you got into Bear Stears near the 52 week low, I would licking my lips and thinking about keeping holding at those levels.
The next thing I recommend at this point is to closely watch analyst revisions and warnings of certain industries and companies. For instance, if you don't understand that the credit crunch is the real deal at this point and that ALL retailers are being affects EXCEPT for your discount and low cost retailers than you are napping on the market and deserve to be invested in index and mutual funds.
My next move this past week was to part with any RETAILERS that I own with a gain. The only retailer that I owned was BEST BUY (NYSE: BBY). BBY was sold for a small profit but this is an retail darling that I would keep a close eye on. As this stock continues to reach low levels and nears its 52 week low I would take our old price point and build in a 5-10% margin of safety. Our old price was 43.95 (need to verify that) and then I would think about buying in. I personally will lean towards a 5% margin because I think people with still shop at BBY for CDs, electronics, video games, and all discount priced electronics.
My formal recommendation, SELL BEST BUY (NYSE: BBY); look for points of reentry later
Lastly SELL gains with limited upside or in industries that will continue to lag the market. The following stocks are formal SELL recommendations:
Maximus (NYSE: MMS) - limited upside here after large institutional investors sold their stakes in the company...I walk when the big money walks!!!
Online Resources (NASDAQ: ORCC) - Sold after it soared to $12 and showed resistance at those levels (this was a nice gain in two months of over 20%)
Supertel (NYSE: SPPR) - I have owned this for at least a couple of years now. It was originally Humprhey Hospitality. Limited upside at this point (nice gain of over 60% in over 2 years)
Remember only go into the playoffs with the best players for your team. Now some of the best players can be guys that have performed in the clutch for you in the past. I say this because I am a believer of this philosopy. Need proof, check out Buffett's additional purchases of Burlington Northern Santa Fe's stocks at levels where he originally purchased the stock. My only wish is that I would have sold this stock (which we bought around $77) when it hit $86 and now we would be in position to buy again. So sell non-performers and hold cash for the Michael Jordan's, Magic Johnson's, and Larry Bird versions of stocks. My FORMAL BUY RECOMMENDATIONS will be a good number of stocks because the market is getting crushed here and I think plenty of stocks will surface with attractive values:
Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) - Buffett's back and so am I love at our old levels of $77
Best Buy (BBY) - This sector (retailers) is getting crushed so wait for proof that the bad times are over and catch this stock, further build in a margin of safety so you can sleep easy at night; consider buy with a safety @ 40, give a hard look @ 42
Maximus (MMS) - This is an attractive stock with mostly buy and strong buy ratings by analysts. The biggest long shot of my buy group; buy at my old post rec price of $29 & 30 dollars.
Online Resources (ORCC) - We loved this stock when the CEO promised he would put up his own money to buy shares of this stock. And we bought around $8.9 dollars a share. Anything under screams BUY
Radisys (RSYS) - Guess who's back! This stock was a 50% gainer for us last year, when we dollar cost averaged our purchase prices on this stock at levels between $10.60-13. We sold when it hit @17 and smiled all the way to the bank. Well it hit my STOCK SCREEN AGAIN, and I will be adding Radisys back to my portfolio. The recent 10 - 15 low is $12.25 and that is where I will set my buy target. This stock closed at 12.19, and with this stock back to my old buy recommendation levels, I am RE-Recommending this stock. I truly don't believe it will test its 52 week low of $10.50 and we have the help of an earnings release in early February that could propel this stock forward.
Zhone Technologies (ZHNE) - I am going to recommend Zhone Technologies and believe that dollar cost buying down at these levels will have positive upside. This has buy a roller coaster ride and hopefully after the short sellers have to recover there will be huge swings to the upside for this stock.
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
Smile, You Just Made My Day
That was the response I hoped to get today. I think I did my good deed today and on a rainy and foggy morning it made me smile. For a number of reasons, I have been smiling a lot recently and decided to share it a little. So my story goes a little something like this…I am headed to work and taking some side streets through the alley. And there is this kid that is blocking my way, I honk a few times and he doesn’t hear me, but then eventually moves to the side. Now its raining and he has no umbrella, no hat, but does have a jacket. It appears that he’s headed to the school close by and he seems like a good kid, however he had the look like he’s taking each day…one at a time. Even though, its tough it appears that he just takes it in stride. So even though I rarely carry cash, I honked once again reached into my pocket and gave him some money. Now my only words were that he shouldn’t spend it all in one place. He gave me that smile and just said thank you.
Jimmy Cayne of Bear Stearns probably feels like this kid I ran into this morning. The clouds over his company keep raining and it looks a little dark and dreary outside. He has just decided to move out of the way…and Wall Street will reward not him but the shareholders today and I believe the stock will rise. The street today is saying thank you and Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) is your trade of the day. I wouldn’t hold it too long because its still one of those nasty financials companies and the times haven’t turned around just yet.
Jimmy Cayne of Bear Stearns probably feels like this kid I ran into this morning. The clouds over his company keep raining and it looks a little dark and dreary outside. He has just decided to move out of the way…and Wall Street will reward not him but the shareholders today and I believe the stock will rise. The street today is saying thank you and Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) is your trade of the day. I wouldn’t hold it too long because its still one of those nasty financials companies and the times haven’t turned around just yet.
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
First Trading Day of 2008
My thoughts so far are BLAH! Exactly the markets were down and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 220 points for about a 1.6% decline. Happy New Years Wall Street! I am gonna continue the trend of trying to post as often as possible even if they are short thoughts of the day. So today, the market is down because the ECONOMY sucks! Let's see OIL hit 100 dollars a barrel for the FIRST TIME EVER. That means the price at the pump will continue to hurt because of some suspect reasons in my book, see a few here (1. Violence in Nigeria, 2. OPEC talks about not being able to meet demand in 2024, & 3. Bad weather affecting Mexico oil ports).
Besides oil hitting record levels the people over at the Federal Reserve are very worried about the credit crunch. The credit crunch is taking a squeeze on the economy's growth and this is evident in the Fed's recent interest rate cut during their last meeting.
Finally, keep an eye out for a drop in the semiconductor sector. I borrowed this analysis from the Fast Money show on CNBC the other night. And like clockwork, many of the semi-stocks tanked today. Najarian on fast money is recommending shorting KLA Tencor (NASDAQ:KLAC) and I see this a nice short term play.
That's all folks...
Besides oil hitting record levels the people over at the Federal Reserve are very worried about the credit crunch. The credit crunch is taking a squeeze on the economy's growth and this is evident in the Fed's recent interest rate cut during their last meeting.
Finally, keep an eye out for a drop in the semiconductor sector. I borrowed this analysis from the Fast Money show on CNBC the other night. And like clockwork, many of the semi-stocks tanked today. Najarian on fast money is recommending shorting KLA Tencor (NASDAQ:KLAC) and I see this a nice short term play.
That's all folks...
Tuesday, January 01, 2008
2007 Year In Review
I have been so busy with stock updates lately that this year went by without many pics of what's been going on with me. Here is a quick review of my 2007:
Feb '07 - The guys @ NBA All Star Weekend in Las Vegas: 
That's our Bed n Breakfast in England, a family shot in Africa, me with twists in my hair.
Summer/Fall Pictures: 
+026.jpg)
+009.jpg)
+004.jpg)
+026.jpg)
+009.jpg)
+004.jpg)
My brother graduates and moves to Chi-town. Hanging out during a great summer. The hit and run accident that totaled my SUV.
A trip to the "Big House" to watch the Purdue vs Michigan football game:
New Years Eve:
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)