Right now we are experiencing a Bailout Nation! I wanted to quickly point out that I believe that Larry Kudlow of CNBC is a joke. He screams unrelentlessly about Free Market Capitalism and then abruptly reverses course when the Federal Reserve steps in and takes action to Regulate the erratic markets at this point. I do understand that some of these companies are tooooo big to fail but isn't one of the underlying principles of free market capitalism - moral hazard. Moral hazard is knowing that you will fail if you participate in very risky activities, because no one will feel sorry for you taking those miscalculated bets.
Please pay close attention as we are entering a time when many claim they believe that the government should be hands off, however they are stretching their power to reaches never seen. The Federal Reserve and Treasury Department are taking unprecendented "predatory" acquisitions of private firms for the 'good of the people'. Well let's examine this for a second:
1. The government is not the business of taking over companies (its not even in their charters)
2. The average person is footing the bill
3. As more of this risky businesses are bought out you begin to lose sight over what requirements are used to save a company
4. Popular myth - the short sellers are not the only one's driving down the stocks of financial companies. Guess what, every time the goverment takes over a company and essentially wipes out shareholder interests (insteading of loaning them the money) this feeds the frenzy of short sellers. There is no downside risk as a shortseller
5. As you continue to the bailouts, the government's reserve of funds will continue to be depleted and that sparks more fears than even storied Wall Street franchises going under.
I want to point out that I am not anti Free Markets nor anti -government. I actually am very pro Free Markets but one the variables that has over history been a thorn in the side of Free Market Capitalism is GREED and right now you are seeing that in every facet of the investment community. Greedy consumers were taken advantage of by greedy mortgage bankers, who were fed money from greedy investment bankers and firms, who were all crushed by greedy "speculators" who are shorting the hell out of all these stocks. And I will end that the government continues to fuel this greed and transfer wealth through predatory acquisitions and non-transparent transactions such as the Bear Stearns deal.
Now I love Free Markets but we may have to all agree that some checks and balances and increased scrutiny is actually good for every...to keep the greed in line!
Showing posts with label Bear Stearns. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bear Stearns. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Playoffs...
"Playoffs...Don't talk to me about playoffs" is the infamous line in the Coor's commercial by coach Jim Mora. And even though its early in the year you have to treat your portfolio like its the playoffs. Its game time this weekend for the National Football League (NFL) and only the best of the best are around to fight for the title. And this is the approach that must be taken with your portfolio...only the best of the best will be accepted. The current market conditions: the value of the dollar, the credit crunch, the housing bubble, higher unemployment, deteriorating earnings, high gas, and the threat of inflation are just a few of the strengths working against you...kinda like the opponents defense in a playoff game. So the past week has seen me actively paying attention to the market. I gave you Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) just a few days ago as a momentum play as James Cayne stepped away from the company. That was a tough day for stocks you could have gotten in BSC anywhere from $71-$77 dollars. At all of these levels you would still be showing a profit at this point. I am not a huge fan of owning any financial companies at these levels.
My formal recommendation is to SELL Bear Stearns. However, informally if you got into Bear Stears near the 52 week low, I would licking my lips and thinking about keeping holding at those levels.
The next thing I recommend at this point is to closely watch analyst revisions and warnings of certain industries and companies. For instance, if you don't understand that the credit crunch is the real deal at this point and that ALL retailers are being affects EXCEPT for your discount and low cost retailers than you are napping on the market and deserve to be invested in index and mutual funds.
My next move this past week was to part with any RETAILERS that I own with a gain. The only retailer that I owned was BEST BUY (NYSE: BBY). BBY was sold for a small profit but this is an retail darling that I would keep a close eye on. As this stock continues to reach low levels and nears its 52 week low I would take our old price point and build in a 5-10% margin of safety. Our old price was 43.95 (need to verify that) and then I would think about buying in. I personally will lean towards a 5% margin because I think people with still shop at BBY for CDs, electronics, video games, and all discount priced electronics.
My formal recommendation, SELL BEST BUY (NYSE: BBY); look for points of reentry later
Lastly SELL gains with limited upside or in industries that will continue to lag the market. The following stocks are formal SELL recommendations:
Maximus (NYSE: MMS) - limited upside here after large institutional investors sold their stakes in the company...I walk when the big money walks!!!
Online Resources (NASDAQ: ORCC) - Sold after it soared to $12 and showed resistance at those levels (this was a nice gain in two months of over 20%)
Supertel (NYSE: SPPR) - I have owned this for at least a couple of years now. It was originally Humprhey Hospitality. Limited upside at this point (nice gain of over 60% in over 2 years)
Remember only go into the playoffs with the best players for your team. Now some of the best players can be guys that have performed in the clutch for you in the past. I say this because I am a believer of this philosopy. Need proof, check out Buffett's additional purchases of Burlington Northern Santa Fe's stocks at levels where he originally purchased the stock. My only wish is that I would have sold this stock (which we bought around $77) when it hit $86 and now we would be in position to buy again. So sell non-performers and hold cash for the Michael Jordan's, Magic Johnson's, and Larry Bird versions of stocks. My FORMAL BUY RECOMMENDATIONS will be a good number of stocks because the market is getting crushed here and I think plenty of stocks will surface with attractive values:
Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) - Buffett's back and so am I love at our old levels of $77
Best Buy (BBY) - This sector (retailers) is getting crushed so wait for proof that the bad times are over and catch this stock, further build in a margin of safety so you can sleep easy at night; consider buy with a safety @ 40, give a hard look @ 42
Maximus (MMS) - This is an attractive stock with mostly buy and strong buy ratings by analysts. The biggest long shot of my buy group; buy at my old post rec price of $29 & 30 dollars.
Online Resources (ORCC) - We loved this stock when the CEO promised he would put up his own money to buy shares of this stock. And we bought around $8.9 dollars a share. Anything under screams BUY
Radisys (RSYS) - Guess who's back! This stock was a 50% gainer for us last year, when we dollar cost averaged our purchase prices on this stock at levels between $10.60-13. We sold when it hit @17 and smiled all the way to the bank. Well it hit my STOCK SCREEN AGAIN, and I will be adding Radisys back to my portfolio. The recent 10 - 15 low is $12.25 and that is where I will set my buy target. This stock closed at 12.19, and with this stock back to my old buy recommendation levels, I am RE-Recommending this stock. I truly don't believe it will test its 52 week low of $10.50 and we have the help of an earnings release in early February that could propel this stock forward.
Zhone Technologies (ZHNE) - I am going to recommend Zhone Technologies and believe that dollar cost buying down at these levels will have positive upside. This has buy a roller coaster ride and hopefully after the short sellers have to recover there will be huge swings to the upside for this stock.
My formal recommendation is to SELL Bear Stearns. However, informally if you got into Bear Stears near the 52 week low, I would licking my lips and thinking about keeping holding at those levels.
The next thing I recommend at this point is to closely watch analyst revisions and warnings of certain industries and companies. For instance, if you don't understand that the credit crunch is the real deal at this point and that ALL retailers are being affects EXCEPT for your discount and low cost retailers than you are napping on the market and deserve to be invested in index and mutual funds.
My next move this past week was to part with any RETAILERS that I own with a gain. The only retailer that I owned was BEST BUY (NYSE: BBY). BBY was sold for a small profit but this is an retail darling that I would keep a close eye on. As this stock continues to reach low levels and nears its 52 week low I would take our old price point and build in a 5-10% margin of safety. Our old price was 43.95 (need to verify that) and then I would think about buying in. I personally will lean towards a 5% margin because I think people with still shop at BBY for CDs, electronics, video games, and all discount priced electronics.
My formal recommendation, SELL BEST BUY (NYSE: BBY); look for points of reentry later
Lastly SELL gains with limited upside or in industries that will continue to lag the market. The following stocks are formal SELL recommendations:
Maximus (NYSE: MMS) - limited upside here after large institutional investors sold their stakes in the company...I walk when the big money walks!!!
Online Resources (NASDAQ: ORCC) - Sold after it soared to $12 and showed resistance at those levels (this was a nice gain in two months of over 20%)
Supertel (NYSE: SPPR) - I have owned this for at least a couple of years now. It was originally Humprhey Hospitality. Limited upside at this point (nice gain of over 60% in over 2 years)
Remember only go into the playoffs with the best players for your team. Now some of the best players can be guys that have performed in the clutch for you in the past. I say this because I am a believer of this philosopy. Need proof, check out Buffett's additional purchases of Burlington Northern Santa Fe's stocks at levels where he originally purchased the stock. My only wish is that I would have sold this stock (which we bought around $77) when it hit $86 and now we would be in position to buy again. So sell non-performers and hold cash for the Michael Jordan's, Magic Johnson's, and Larry Bird versions of stocks. My FORMAL BUY RECOMMENDATIONS will be a good number of stocks because the market is getting crushed here and I think plenty of stocks will surface with attractive values:
Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) - Buffett's back and so am I love at our old levels of $77
Best Buy (BBY) - This sector (retailers) is getting crushed so wait for proof that the bad times are over and catch this stock, further build in a margin of safety so you can sleep easy at night; consider buy with a safety @ 40, give a hard look @ 42
Maximus (MMS) - This is an attractive stock with mostly buy and strong buy ratings by analysts. The biggest long shot of my buy group; buy at my old post rec price of $29 & 30 dollars.
Online Resources (ORCC) - We loved this stock when the CEO promised he would put up his own money to buy shares of this stock. And we bought around $8.9 dollars a share. Anything under screams BUY
Radisys (RSYS) - Guess who's back! This stock was a 50% gainer for us last year, when we dollar cost averaged our purchase prices on this stock at levels between $10.60-13. We sold when it hit @17 and smiled all the way to the bank. Well it hit my STOCK SCREEN AGAIN, and I will be adding Radisys back to my portfolio. The recent 10 - 15 low is $12.25 and that is where I will set my buy target. This stock closed at 12.19, and with this stock back to my old buy recommendation levels, I am RE-Recommending this stock. I truly don't believe it will test its 52 week low of $10.50 and we have the help of an earnings release in early February that could propel this stock forward.
Zhone Technologies (ZHNE) - I am going to recommend Zhone Technologies and believe that dollar cost buying down at these levels will have positive upside. This has buy a roller coaster ride and hopefully after the short sellers have to recover there will be huge swings to the upside for this stock.
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