Peloton (PTON) - Is it Going Down in the DM?

 

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments) HOW TO SEARCH MY BLOG:	Get Updates to Your Email When I Create A New Post:

Also Coming Soon - a series on #HowtoInvest. People have been reaching especially after the spikes in Gamestop, AMC, and other stock to learn the basics. I self-taught myself how to invest beginning at the age of roughly 18 and have never stopped. To be a good investor and ensure you are not gambling (speculating), I'll cover (hardest parts of investing in RED):

Budgeting 101 - How to Fund Ur Investments?

Why Stocks as an Investment?

What is Ur Investment Profile + Personality?

How to Pick Stocks?

When to Buy Stocks?

How to Enter My Trade?

How Many Stocks Should I Own?

When to Sell Stocks?

Am I Speculating (Gambling)?

Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)

I get many readers ask me the question: "What do you mean when you say Value Stocks"? Then I refer them back to my favorite analogy. I have stuck in my head, from my youth, that candy bars should be $50c. When I travel the country and have to stop at a gas station, I WILL NOT buy candy unless it's $50c. I'm stubborn like that. I'll get the king size bar only if it's $1 dollar. A value stock is when you've done your homework and know what you think it should sell for like my Reese's cups. A value investor like myself tries (key word) to only buy when I see my Reese's cups (or a stock) AT or BELOW this level. Yes, go ahead and make fun of me but I'm principled in that way. I apply the same standard to stocks. I prefer to buy when I see it on sale and have a price in mind. 

Don't believe me just watch moment: Go back and search for one of my best investments ever, Sprint. Sprint got "beat down" like they stole something, and I swooped in. When T-Mobile came calling, they offered a higher price to merge (as we say here "date" or "hook up" with) Sprint. It was truly a beautiful trade and we made lots of money. 

I think Peloton is starting to shape up the same way my Sprint trade did. This stock was once as high as $150 just a year ago. To me, Peloton is just a bike but the stock skyrocketed once it came public. It has fallen from grace to a low of $22 dollars. Like the winter olympics, you don't want a stock chart that is sloping downhill...not good.

Rumor has it companies may be sliding into their DM trying to hookup. I bought some Peloton today because it reminds me of whenever I find Reese's cups for $50c. Usually, it's a time to load up because I just don't see if often. With Peloton, I still struggle with the need for an overpriced exercise bike. I will probably need to interview some actual users to fully understand all the benefits, but I said the same thing about the Apple iPhone and many people are happy with paying for an overpriced phone. I think there is definitely a market for the "connected" use of the bike but clearly, I didn't agree with the price of the stock. I finally feel somewhat vindicated, now that the stock has cratered but it took a while to get here. Long story short, is I can see clearly now the rain is gone. And I think Pelton is worth some risk if Amazon, Apple or other suitors wanna hookup.

Brace for Volatility

  

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments) HOW TO SEARCH MY BLOG:	Get Updates to Your Email When I Create A New Post:

Also Coming Soon - a series on #HowtoInvest. People have been reaching especially after the spikes in Gamestop, AMC, and other stock to learn the basics. I self-taught myself how to invest beginning at the age of roughly 18 and have never stopped. To be a good investor and ensure you are not gambling (speculating), I'll cover (hardest parts of investing in RED):

Budgeting 101 - How to Fund Ur Investments?

Why Stocks as an Investment?

What is Ur Investment Profile + Personality?

How to Pick Stocks?

When to Buy Stocks?

How to Enter My Trade?

How Many Stocks Should I Own?

When to Sell Stocks?

Am I Speculating (Gambling)?

Brace Yourself for Volatility

Volatility is coming! Volatility is coming! It's no secret that I like to talk about stocks, the economy, business, etc. I was watching one of the Sunday morning political shows and was surprised when they polled a number of Americans about their views of the economy. I could barely contain myself as there was consensus that the country is not headed in the right direction. I thought I was caught in the twilight zone as the panel which skewed older and maybe even a bit conservative could only complain about bacon?? I was having an Allen Iverson moment (are we talking about practice). Are we talking about bacon, seriously.

For a frame of reference, let's revisit where we have been. I've constantly written here that our economy consists of up and downs or "inflation" and "deflation" periods, if you will. I've been quoted by sharing that this cycle occurs about every 8-10 years. Preceding years of a booming economy, here are the historical crash moments of our economy:

1987 - dubbed: Black Monday (date: October 19, 1987). What had happened was: The dropped nearly 22% in a one day after years of excess

1998 some say 2000 - dubbed: Dot Com Bubble or Crash What had happened was: This was the bust after the amazing internet boom where EVERYTHING you bought seem to go up. Most industries were slapped with a .com, like Pets.com, and given "inflated" prices. Many companies went out of business during this time.

2008: - dubbed: The Financial Crisis What had happened was: Everybody and their mom was given loans to buy homes. Many with no proof of income. That ended with a resounding thud, and we were forced to bailout Wall Street because it seems like most banks were caught with their hand in cookie jar and owned some of these shitty loans.

    

Don't believe me just watch moment: If you don't believe me, you should take a moment and listen to my Billionaire Buddy, Ray Dalio. I've learned so much from Ray and he is a core mainstay of my Mansa Musa Network. I believe in facts, data, history, and strangely enough that life tends to repeat itself. Listen to Ray Dalio as he school's you on how the economy works: 

Now back to our regular scheduled program. The response to these economic recessions if we as a country, people, and world try to reinflate things. We call it stimulus or printing of money so people are less afraid and get back to what makes our economy run...spending money. This happened after 2008, remember TARP, Cash for Clunkers, and I was even the receipient of the Homebuyers Tax Credit. History shows we had a nice period under then President Obama. From 2008 to 2016, the economy steadily rebounded and unemployment roared back. I wrote in 2017/18 the economy was frothy and due for a recession. Then we changed presidents and President Trump introduced business tax cuts that added lighter fluid to an already hot economy. My side hustle was rocking and under those tax cuts my business taxes were very low. I felt a recession coming in my bones and wrote about it repeatedly. It unfortunately came in the form of COVID-19. During this period, I know landlords that had 5 or 6 tenants out of work. The restaurant, tourism, and travel businesses cratered. If I recall, the airlines basically asked for a bailout. We REFLATED the economy and gave out PPP loans for businesses. Businesses came roaring back and my side hustle began taking off again. I even hired 3 Full Time employees. Most of us got child tax and stimulus checks and we all bought stuff: Cars, Homes, Yachts, Trips all hit record levels. I bought my second home in 2018 because interest rates were at record lows at the time.

So, when I listened to that panel indicate the economy was not improving, I had to call bluff like I was playing poker. EVERYONE I know is flush with cash. Many have changed jobs, got pay increases and work remotely more now than ever. If you're complaining about the price of bacon being higher, you're forgetting THAT IS THE PURPOSE of reflating the economy after COVID. You're forgetting people are back to work. I've hired 3 people in 9 months because I must believe business will continue to be strong or else how will I pay their salaries? My preference as I wrote was for the government to simply cut checks to people during COVID instead of businesses getting PPP loans. 

I believe volatility is coming. The Federal Reserve has to raise interest rates because last year any stock you bought went up. Stop complaining over bacon, it will come back down. But I hope you saved for a rainy day and continue to work on your pillars...because after all this STIMULUS...I think we are due for a hangover. We can't keep printing money because no one will so be able to afford anything. Let me put things into perspective, my company car which was an executive lease was purchased by the company I own. I purchased my lease because my used car actually INCREASED IN VALUE. That is unheard of. So I'm here to tell you the economy is drunk and the volatility is like having a hangover. It's gonna be a bit rough from here on.

Kohl's (KSS) - Up 36% After Hookup

 Did you read my last post? I highlighted Kohls and how Wall Street is looking for value stocks. Here is a great example of an underperforming company that is looking to be taken over.

I joked my wife said I have a few stocks that are doing very well.  A very common phrase I hear from newer investors. I told her we but be patient, disciplined, and it's good to hold the value companies for the long haul. 

Well, I think she is happy she is holding Kohls. Yesterday it was up a whopping 36% and I think could go higher. They won't sell for cheap...so let's watch the investors fight over who will date or win Kohls over.

Here is a snapshot of Kohls massive rise after two companies slid into their DM:

Kohl's (KSS) - I Got the Hookup Alert (Jan 2022)

 Many say that 2022 will be the return of the Stockpicker's Only club. What this means in Wall Street speak is that the easy money days are probably over. I would love to see the stats but I'm sure even the Reddit Forums volumes are lower that they've been over the last year. Last year, any stock you touched or bought was red hot! But the difference between the newbies and the veterans is the wisdom of having seen situations like this before...and for other veteran investors: having discipline. If you replay the last year or two on my blog, you'll notice that I primarily moved to options in an attempt to manage my risk. Yes, I owned Gamestop and AMC and ironically got out of these positions after 100 or 200% returns. Many went on to hold for much more higher gains. Unfortunately, too many newbies are still holding and watching those magical gains erode. As I've mentioned here before and had to learn the hard way...it never hurts to take some of your winnings off the table in a disciplined manner. Even I fell victim to this as my investment in Roku skyrocketed beyond belief. It has cratered back down and while I have a measly 4 figure gain it used to represent a large 5 figure gain. I could've done some things a little bit better but AT LEAST, I was trading against ROKU on a regular basis. 

What did I do Right?

1) Hedge - I used options to hedge against my growing holding. This is a way that many of us investors collect INCOME (or as I like to call it a stimulus check). When Roku hit $200, I would write an option betting it wouldn't reach $250, $300, $400, and even $500. As long as those levels weren't reached, I received a small check for my time. I'd have to go back and calculate my win % but it was high, and the gains were steady.

What did I do Wrong?

1) Pay Attention - I was busy building my cyber business and didn't keep hammering my income generating strategy into the end of the year. Not a biggie. If you check every day, investing will consume you. Buy stocks you can purchase and forget for a while. If you have to own stocks you must check daily...that could be bad for your wealth and health. But fair enough I could've taken a peek in the last 5 months of the year.

2) Stop Loss Trade - While many people use this for capping their losses, I could have used this type of trade to simply exit a VERY profitable trade. I didn't put an exit trade on because I was busy (see point #1) but primarily because of taxes. This was a biggie and I saw a huge gain dwindle but happy to still be up thousands of dollars. Why didn't I get out...because I was FORCED to lock in gains from Collectors Universe. When you have a 10x bagger on your hands the gains are astronomical, and I was very concerned about the tax implications of both Collectors Universe and ROKU in the same year. I would have had capitals in the range of what I made in one year in Corporate America on top of the fact that I already have a steady job this would have easily put me into a brand-new tax bracket. Again, this is simply RPP - Rich People's Problems or a First World issue... but I wanted to be transparent on why I personally didn't sell.

What Likely Works in 2022 - VALUE + Mansa Musa Network

Value is often described as a beaten down, unloved stock. You've read before that I like to look for those unloved gems, wait for people to see the shine or polish and then watch them rise. Collectors was like that and that turned out amazing. I'm staying locked into to a few of these trades in 2022. One trade being Kohls, the other being Tegna.

Kohl's - I Got the Hook Up

It goes down in the DM and once again my Mansa Musa Network trade is Kohls appears to be heating up. A beaten down stock is being being courted by hedge funds and private equity funds on Wall Street...don't believe me just watch:

Acacia Research appears to have just slid into Kohl's DM and they wanna hook up at a value of $64 dollars. Considering Kohl's is trading in the mid 40s when I wrote this they may be heading for the Love Boat.

Talk about your DM blowing up. Kohl's has just had another suitor slide into their DMs. Sycamore has joined the party and they want to Netflix and chill.

So stayed tune and be very careful as the easy money days are ending. Don't say you were NOT told as the Federal Reserve has been carefully telling you they are increasing interest rates because everyone is making money...off stocks, Bitcoin, NFTs, trading cards, etc. It means it's time to cool things down a bit. Now is time for my value strategy to shine and occasionally I'll go hunting with some of my Mansa Musa Network friends. Potential hookups like I've written before will offer tremendous value. 

Release The Pressure - Stick to the Pillars

 Happy New Year's to all my readers out there. I am wishing that everyone has a blessed and prosperous 2022.  For the last few months, I've posted less because I've been focused on a growing technology consulting and training business that is thriving. I have clients across the country and globe, and I train cyber consultants to help those companies increase their security hygiene.  I don't mind when my business efforts take me away from my typically successful trading efforts because while its challenging and rewarding to trade for yourself, there is NOTHING comparable to building something from scratch that makes a difference in people's lives. I get to choose my mission and its pressure packed but it also rewarding to see people and my client's grow.

Speaking of pressure, I have discussions with many people about the obstacles they are hearing and seeing. However, one piece of advice I give is that we must remain eternal optimists, laser focused on risks to our families, business, and life.

2022 will be filled with many pressure points, so I want to help you navigate your investments, your journey, and your goals. To combat pressure and stress it often takes having a plan, practicing it, and then sticking to the plan. I liken this approach to when I played sports, you practice shooting free throws in practice when you're tired, so when the game is on the line you've practiced taking and making the winning shot. For my international readers, imagine being chosen to kick the winning goal in football (soccer in America). To succeed in the face of insurmountable pressure, you much approach it like you've been there before.

Here are some things we are up against:

What am I listening to: "Pressure" by Ari Lennox

Tegna (TGNA) - I got the Hook Up Alert

 What's up everyone. I've been super busy with my side hustle absolutely taking off. My list of cybersecurity clients keeps growing. But I'm here to talk about stocks.

I own Tegna and ironically just added a boatload of Tegna stock last Friday. Call it luck...but I noticed the stock was trending up. Here is the news I saw in my feed:

Byron Allen, a member of my Mansa Musa Network, is bidding on Tegna to grow his empire. The stock is not trading at $23 yet but inching that way. If you think it will get to $23, many will still buy the stock and that's call "Playing the Arbitrage". A fancy word (French I assume) we use on Wall Street to take a calculated bet on well-known information, like this article indicating Byron is increasing his bid for the company. He has some big hitters with him to hook up or slide in Tegna's DM. So let's hope this happens and we'll have a big payday!!

Peace and Love

How to Buy Week of 9/26 - Name that Stock Up 20% In 1 Week

  

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments) HOW TO SEARCH MY BLOG:	Get Updates to Your Email When I Create A New Post:

How To Buy - Week of 9/26

Pictured above is a stock chart of TEGNA (NYSE:TGNA). TGNA is a media company fka as Gannett. 

The old Gannett provided news media -- think newspapers, your local TV stations, etc. They split these operations up and you can still own the slower growth newpaper business (USA Today and it's still know as Gannett) and the TV news / media business is now know as Tegna.  

Still with me?  Great, well I own Tegna. Need a better description, every time you watch your local news station...and it says Channel 13 NBC News, let's just say I thank you and my bank account thanks you. I first got into Tegna after 4 separate investors were looking to hook up with TGNA back in 2020 (note: ultimately TGNA decided against getting married).  This was rough for the stock but I held because election years are great for news and media stocks and Trump, Biden, and the craziness of American politics did not fail. Trust but Verify, see this post:

September 2020 - This post was insight into WHEN and WHY I Bought Tegna:

https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2020/09/how-being-risk-focused-allows-me-to.html

Last year, Tegna rebuffed it's suiters like a millennial who declines dating someone because they didn't tick off EVERYTHING on their dating wish list. So similar to a break up, Tegna was suffering from the rebound blues. The stock was trading very low for awhile but I knew if 4 companies wanted to slide into their DM, then it meant TGNA was attractive. And by telling us what they would pay for hook up...we found PRICE DISCOVERY. Most buyout offers were around $20. Remember these #traderfacts because they help me be the best trader I can be. 

Earlier this year, I sold 1/2 my position when TGNA reached the initial hook up price and I blogged about it. I've learned to never fully get out of my positions as I often miss out of additional good news later. I may have traded this stock the way it should be done. I held a big position, exited my first position taking my initial investment out and I'm guessing a 20% gain. Then let the rest RIDE!!  See the links below as I post to give you insight into real life trading...not some of this podcast bs that you can get rich over night.

April 2021 - This post was insight into WHEN and WHY I Sold Tegna:

https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2021/04/when-to-sell-tegna-prism-gun-violence.html

Fast forward to this week: TGNA has SURGED nearly 20% this week and at first I wasn't sure why. Well it turns out therrrrrre BACK!!! My friends in my Mansa Musa Network are trying to slide into Tegna's DM once again. This time the price is higher to get married and I've seen $22 (Byron Allen + Ares Managment) and $23 (Apollo) from 2 suitors.

I recently learned that one of my consultants in my cyber business follows my blog and trades after reading and learning from my posts. I hope to make it easier for us to trade notes in a community that's just for us. I hope to move my subscriber alerts to my "Discord" channel so you can learn How and Why I buy and sell. I also hope to learn from you.

Tegna netted me roughly a 35% profit and that came in less than a year for the April 2021 trade and now we'll be at above 35-45% based on the new hookup prices I've discovered.

#getthebag      #howtobuy  #tegna