It Goes Down in the DM -- Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI)

  

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
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ACTIVISION BLIZZARD INC

Hello everyone, I hope you're enjoying a good summer. I've been laying low from the stock market as you guys have previously read. Some may say I've missed out on this year's rise in stocks and that is partially true. Many people don't know that the market has actually risen as a result of primary 7 stocks that have been very hot because of the latest buzzword AI - Artificial Intelligence. So if you've owned NVIDIA, MICROSOFT, META PLATFORMS (formerly FACEBOOK), APPLE, ALPHABET (aka GOOGLE), AMAZON, TESLA then you've done very well this year, however; all other stocks have just done BLAH. 

So I've opted for the slow and less risky approach while the government tries to still cool down what has been referred to as an overheating economy. As interest rates have gone up, I've focused more on taking advantage of those increased interest rates to collect 4 to 5% on the cash I'm sitting on in my retirement and personal bank accounts. I have stayed invested in investment account, but I've not been overly active. So what has worked for me:

I've continued to rely on my Mansa Musa network of friends. If you're not sure what this network is about, just run a search on my blog and get familiar with this approach. When there is uncertainty in the air, I believe in strength in numbers and invest with friends. Just over a year ago my 93-year-old buddy Warren Buffett started buying shares in Activision Blizzard. 

It Goes Down in the DM - Activision

I watched patiently after Microsoft slid into Activision DMs in January 2022 to the tune of $69 billion to hook up. As Buffett saw they were willing to 'put a ring on it', his company bought roughly 50 million. When we invest in companies hooking up, we hope they make it all the way to the alter. If you're a sports person, we hope the trade for the star player goes through. Two things subsequently happened that may me want to jump on board:

Back in May 2022, the stock market was falling and there was rumblings that these two were not going to make it to the alter. The trade might get cancelled. In the stock world, it's usually because US and international governments have to bless the deal to ensure it's not anticompetitive. This is like your parents blessing your marriage or the owners blessing the trade. This blessing was getting pushback in the US and UK. So there was VALUE as the stock dropped. What did I do, I decided to gamble with my Mansa Musa buddy Warren Buffet. I jumped in at the range of $69 - $75 a share.

I don't play poker but I and Warren Buffett were making a bet that the merger (aka hook up) would go through. If it did...if they made it to the alter the predetermined buyout price would be $95 a share. I like simplicity sometimes when I invest and I thought I was getting a discount on a great stock which I don't mind owning. The bonus or side bet is if this great stock gets the blessing to get married - then I get the guaranteed upside to $95 a share. In short Activision's stock should rise as long as Microsoft gets the blessing of it's parents (in the form of governments across the world). This got nasty like Real Housewives and went to court in the US, but the blessing finally happened. What happened to my simple thesis from over a year ago. 

Don't believe me, well go back look for yourself:

May 2022: First Post on Activision: https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2022/05/the-stock-market-is-falling-will-i-be.html

July 2022: Second post: https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2022/07/inflation-stagflation-recession-either.html

Where is Activision now:

Follow The Money - Why Companies Are Demanding Remote Workers Return to the Office

  

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments) HOW TO SEARCH MY BLOG:	Get Updates to Your Email When I Create A New Post:

As the owner of a small but growing technology consulting and staffing company, I have some insight and visibility into workplace trends. I often find myself using the tools and techniques that I share with you on investing in the business world. For example, I try to track certain trends related to cybersecurity job openings. One of my most prescient calls a few years ago was shared in an email blast that I posted to my job network. The call was the rise of the remote job openings. While I had made the shift to full remote work about five years ago, I noticed and commented on the increasing rise of remote work. If I get a chance I will post and share that email newsletter from a few years ago. I personally believe that trend has triggered employer productivity, employee flexibility, and a less biased playing field. I can provide myself and few other consultants that have worked with and for me as a "use case". We have contributed to an increased amount of workplace productivity as I often have a more difficult time turning work off. A sad example would be the fact that I check my workplace laptop as I pass by office during my off hours. I tend to justify my increased workload by fairly noting that working remote has increased my family flexibility. For the first time in my adult life, I found relief in being able to go to the post office, put laundry in the washer, get my kids from daycare timely, grab the groceries, and occasionally cut the grass during my lunch break. These were things that were only left for after work evenings and weekends. Finally, I also found that working remotely has increased the pool of employers that needed my skillset, exposed me to better pay wages, and I feel I didn't have to some aspects of racism in the corporate world. While, I know many interviewers will check my LinkedIn account and do a Google search, I've finally shifted the tide and feel like I can control my narrative a bit. I don't have a huge presence on the internet and it's politically incorrect to ask for me to add you to my LinkedIn profile -- so I personally believe I'm being evaluated on my resume, interview skills and experience, with less of the biases the office culture. Many people don't realize a previous trend that saw corporate offices move to suburbs in mass droves. What this silently meant was city dwellers (often younger adults) and minority communities often dealt with the burden of longer commutes. I personally lived is a large metro city and when I bought my home, I chose a majority minority enclave of the city. It was perfect! My neighbors were: multiple lawyers, multiple doctors, multiple police and law enforcement persons, and members of academia. They were all minorities and lived in my building. This was home, this was comfort, this was the dream. But my move also now meant a longer commute as my company had no presence in the city as it was located in a less populous and diverse suburb. Instead of companies understanding this burden being placed on its workforce, I was a betting prop in my department. One of my colleagues openly acknowledged, years later, they were surprised I did not move or change jobs after I made my first home purchased. What is a logical idea, is illogical in a world where most corporations are not setup in minority communities. The blessing in disguise has been an older graying workforce that is causing and FORCING employers to finally listen. The younger workers being interviewed started declining job offers at my company which finally caused them to open a city office location where we could work from. Imagine that -- overnight my commute was cut my more that half and my commute options doubled. I was even being exposed to a healthier lifestyle as I often has to walk from the bus or train stop to my office. The rise of WeWork and younger workers demanding more flexibility has been a game changer.

So let's fast forward to the trends I am seeing today. I have seen a sharp increase in the last 3-6 months of job opening demanding that workers be "Onsite from Day 1" to a term called "hybrid". This means that the worker may be in the office 3 out of 5 days a week. I went from interviewing and filling job roles a rapid clip, to know a grind of potential new hires asking me is this job really in the office and me constantly confirming with recruiters. I've often taught you all here to do one thing when you usually get to the bottom of an increasing trend and that's to Follow the Money. So, I wasn't surprised when I read a recent article citing that one of the main reasons companies are requiring workers to return to the office is due to financial reasons. The commercial real estate industry, jobs that support those commercial districts and even the tax breaks that have been negotiated with corporations all top the list of reasons why grey-haired males leading Corporate American firms are rallying around strong statements demanding workers return. While I do understand that some job roles and an increased corporate culture stand to gain from being onsite, I personally have stated I will not return to onsite work. Now I can take a stance like that because I'm established in my career, have diversified my income and follow the Pillars that I write about here, what will be interesting is if the younger generation and other on the fence can win the battle of remote work.

Don't believe me, just read. The following article from Bloomberg, shares some context on how tax breaks are pushing employers to demand workers return to the office:

Source: Bloomberg

Tax Breaks Threaten Work from Home

Dealing with The Inevitable

  

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments) HOW TO SEARCH MY BLOG:	Get Updates to Your Email When I Create A New Post:

Dealing with Loss -- Take Time to Heal

This post is a reminder to live your life, take care of others, and make memories. I heard a phrase before that we are all just passing through and that hit home this week. This week was a very difficult week as I have lost people that I've made memories with. I lost my cousin, who was literally the reflection of sunshine in her bright yellow dress at my wedding. A quiet soul, who lit up a room figuratively and literally with her smile, confidence, and style. To my cousin - may you rest in peace and look over us. I'll think of you especially on those bright sunny days and picture you in that sharp yellow dress, smiling down on us.

To my college friend. I'll forever remember the long talks we shared. Young men trying to find our way and shaping plans for our future. The ambitions of being entrepreneurs and somehow you even talked me into selling telecom phone plans and pagers. A man that had a spark that could bring people together and make them feel comfortable.  Please rest easy and thank you for the many talks and adventures. 

To all of us who've lost loved ones, they will be missed. I pray for everyone's continued strength.

Expiring December Trades - Summary of Value Trades [JOE|MANU|FNF|TDOC|THS|MU]

This year was filled with many highs. The biggest is we welcome a bouncing baby boy a few months ago!! I apologize for not posting as frequently but I've been running my cyber company and we doubled our revenue last year and we are closing out this year, 3X what we did last year. 

So, I often shared my pillars with you all -- if you don't recall them -- use the search bar for the term "pillars". I've had to prioritize time for family and the business deals that bring us the most benefit. My stock portfolio has taken a back seat but that doesn't mean I do not still trade. For your reference, many of these stock trades were placed months ago, based on theme of what I think will happen OR based on companies that I think offer value (search my 50c candy bar views). See my summary below for why I made these trades and whether they panned out. 

 I'm headed to a Board meeting shortly but here are my December trades:

Summary of Trades

THE ST. JOE COMPANY (JOE)

MANCHESTER UNITED PLC (MANU)

FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL, INC. (FNF)

Teladoc Health, Inc. (TDOC)

TREEHOUSE FOODS, INC. (THS)

MICRON TECHNOLOGY, INC. (MU)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My next post will discuss what I'm doing going into the end of the year. Stay tuned for what we call tax loss harvesting. When you've had a great year, usually with short term trades like I have it offers me a chance to get rid of some of the underperformers in my portfolio.

Margin of Safety Leads to Big Time Gains - Micron | Snap | Dave Busters | Roblox | Zoom Media

 Hello and a very happy Friday to all. It has been a busy, very busy and blessed year so far. As I mentioned in my last post, I welcome my first son and our last child to this world. So many prayers and blessings for him as he enters this amazing world. I'm watching my kids, my businesses, my friendships, and my mind grow --- and it makes me smile. My goal is to stay positive and push positivity out into the world but being that I specialize in 'risk management' I still find myself constantly trying to create moats to protect that things that are most important to me. We'll delve more into this topic into the future, but I'm curious how do you think about creating moats and protecting things you value? 

I'll take this topic of protection and spin it back to my investments. I will not lie to you 2022 -- has been a year of minimal investments on my part. The first reason is my technology business has been growing leaps and bounds so I've focused my energy here. Secondly, you'll recall that I began to get very cautious on the markets last year and into early this year. I was a bit slow but look back and read, I moved my entire retirement funds out of stocks. I'm not trying to time the market per se, but I am trying to create a moat. Game of Thrones analogy --- If you see a dragon coming, I think you should get out of the way. As some of the investors in my Mansa Musa network have mentioned and I have tried to share -- when the Federal Reserve is raising rates, you better get out of the way. Now to be transparent, my personal stock account is still active and for the most part I am completely exposed to stocks. So I've taken the SAME losses as you -- and anyone who tells you they haven't lost money is basically lying, I call CAP, as they say nowadays.

So how do I change my strategy:

1) I slow down my investing and research more (Example: If you can't pass the test of if I can $10K would I put it all in one stock -- then don't buy the stock)

2) I create a bigger moat, or cushion for loss. (Example: If I like Snap at $8 - I think $7 in this environment is better cushion

3) Don't rush to trade quickly -- Like love, there is no need to be in a hurry.

Here are my trades for October. Many of these were made months ago. The important thing to notice is I got the amount of cushion right. I'll leave you with SNAP. I bought SNAP when the stock plummeted, then is moved up nicely and now they just recently reported earning and plummeted again. The good thing was I bought in with margin of safety (i.e., moat or cushion) that allowed me to withstand all that volatility).

Finally - Don't gawk at the wins, because every trade and every month does NOT turn out like this. But the goal is to try and achieve consistency like this.

Peace and love to and more lessons to come.

#Urbanomics #getthebag #Micron #Snap #DaveandBusters #ZoomMedia #Moat #marginosaftey

What I'm Watching - Elon Musk + Twitter Acquisition

 Many that know me will attest that I'm a matter-of-fact person who is stubborn when I feel like I've done my research and feel confident about a point that I'm making. When I'm making a point, I try to come up with my thesis first and then I look for evidence supporting or denying my position. I guess this would be similar to a poker player attempting to determine what hand their opponent has prior to making a betting decision. While human nature lends me (and us all) to usually sticking to our point of view, I tend to seek out articles, videos, and also feedback from my inner circle and my Mansa Musa network to pressure test my point of view. Like traveling through a car wash, pressure testing my thoughts involves me finding viewpoints that may differ from mine and cleaning up my thesis.

Thesis on Twitter

Twitter has been one of those few "investments" you've seen me write about recently. There is nothing magical about my trade except for the fact that I believe Twitter was a valuable position once Elon declared he was interested in purchasing the company. I gained more confidence as I learned about the terms of the investment and how the requests for data were provided to Elon. 

So, let's fast forward to last week as I finally got the news I had originally expected. Last week, Elon Musk's lawyers reached out to Twitter requesting the trail be put on hold and that his investment in the company would proceed as previously communicated. In basic terms, Elon either saw or was advised that the outcome may not be leaning in his favor. I'll keep an eye on Twitter and Elon news as I look forward to Elon finalizing the acquisition. 

Full Disclosure: I own Twitter in both my personal and retirement account portfolios and picked up this position AFTER Elon discussed his interest in purchasing the company. I've traded TWTR before and those positions were small but profitable (but I'll do some research to confirm how profitable). This is a simple arbitrage play. Elon says he was going to purchase the company, so I built a small position banking on closure of this deal. 

#arbitrage #Urbanomics #Twitter #ElonMusk

The Rebirth of Slick - Baby on Board (Snowflake | Volatility)

Hello to all my Urbanomics readers out there. I have amazing news to share. My family welcomed our 4th child and I'm officially a proud father of my first baby boy!! So, it's time to celebrate life and put your priorities first. I have 4 children, 6 client engagements we currently support, 4 employees, and 3 renters that I interact with. So, I have an entire village of people that look to me for leadership and guidance -- and I take that responsibility very seriously. Every addition to my village, creates more work and stress and it's my job to remove some of that burden. I try to do that through automation (which makes certain task easier), hiring staff to take on repeatable jobs I used to manage, and sometimes flat out saying no - no more work/emails/phone calls. I had to do that the other day when a prospective business partner kept reaching out for me to provide one of my cybersecurity consultants for their project. I don't mind helping but when you call 3x in 30 minutes you are bordering on being annoying and disrespectful and I shared this feedback with that person. 

So, a key Urbanomics lesson I wanted to share is create a plan this will ensure that you move towards a common goal. I have a 60+ point task list that I have my staff check daily to ensure we are taking care of our responsibilities. We must complete timesheets, bill invoices (Accounts Receivable), pay vendors and bills (Accounts Payable), purchase office supplies, execute payroll, and the way I ensure things don't slip through the cracks is by planning. We plan ahead and measure our progress against those plans and milestones. But remember, life will throw you curve balls, and you must hang tight and adjust your plans when needed. 

When it comes to the markets, I still see an economy that's peaked and starting to slow. While I keep getting requests for more jobs, I have to be careful in extrapolating my view into thinking it matches everyone else's view. For example, just because I'm seeing growth in the cybersecurity compliance sector, the layoff stories and reports of slowdowns (did you hear the FedEx CEO on a looming recession??) may be telling a bigger story to come in a year or so. I anticipated the stock market still dropping so you'll recall I moved my retirement funds to cash towards the end of 2021. You've heard me writing about optionality -- and I love taking my ball and leaving. I don't mind throwing the middle finger up and saying I'm gone. Why? Because I like playing games that I can win --- games on my terms and right now the market is a rough game. Just like the real estate market, I'll wait you out.

See these trades I've made recently: short term small hits are what I'm trying to execute on. I executed these trades awhile back and haven't been active. Read a recent post and you'll see my investment themes:

I like beaten down TECH and Volatility as pain is ahead. And I don't just share my wins, I was playing Energy and got a little bit loose with a naked trade I was forced to close in Devon Energy.

Stay balanced, celebrate the wins, learn from your losses. Sending love to all. Peace out:

Recent Trading Wins: 

Snowflake (Theme: Beaten Down Tech)

VIXY (Theme: Volatility Trade)

Redball (Theme: Hedge against my SPAC investment, this will turn into a small gain of roughly $200)

Recent Trading Loss:

Devon Energy - I was playing loose and trading naked. I traded more shares than I owned. When Devon Energy popped the other day, I was forced to sell my position at a loss. Sorry Warren I got greedy and I own this mistake. But also I close my losses and move on.