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Showing posts with label optionality. Show all posts
Showing posts with label optionality. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 01, 2023

The Art of Negotiation - Know Your Worth | Leverage | Optionality

   

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans


How to Open My First Brokerage Account

Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments)

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THE ART OF NEGOTIATION

Hello and happy Tuesday. It's cliche but it's August and we all wonder where has the time gone. So I want to drop a little bit of knowledge in how I negotiate deals. As of this writing, my technology security company has signed a number of contractual deals with corporate entities in the past few years. We provide security solutions that help them better secure their organizations. The hardest part is getting your foot in the door and speaking to new clients but right after that the most difficult thing is negotiating terms of a deal. I find it very odd that this is not something that is taught in schools and is something I advocate for people that work and train with me. If you look back at my blogging history, I've been a HUGE advocate for college and even high school athletes to get paid. You could probably go back 10 or 15 years ago and see my posts on this subject. I was so surprised when I would communicate my thoughts on this subject how many people, mainly men, across different demographics argued that players should not be paid. 

I used this interaction as a case study in systemic systems and unfortunately this one includes race when it came to playing college athletes. Remember, I spoke to young, old, and men of different races and a majority of the time they stated college players don't deserve to get paid -- they often defaulted the school is paying for their education. The reason why I called this practice systemic is because even though most of these discussions resulted in the person across from me agreeing with my evidence, they found it easy to fall back to what is status quo.

When I consult for my clients, I follow a few simple mantras. You can't hit what you can't see (Visibility). You can't solve a problem you can't quantify (Measure). You can't solve a problem you if you don't take action (Solve).  My opps (as the young folks say today) didn't stop to find contextual data of the argument I was making. Here was my point:

Visibility: There was not a proliferation of data involved when my opps would fall back to their status quo position. They didn't often state that a majority of the players in college football and basketball are African American. 

Measure: They didn't measure or take into consideration the rate at which these players 'make it to the pros' or go on to play at a professional level to earn a living. According to the National Collegiate Athletic Association: 1 in 2,451 men's high school basketball players will be drafted by a National Basketball Assocation team. 

They didn't measure the dramatic increase in youth leagues, parents spending insane amounts of money for these leagues, or the impact this drive has on families. What's the cost of obsessed parents who lose track of time spent, neglect to their spouse and other kids, or even missed school.

Solve: I don't claim to have all the answers but if we want to teach families and kids true economics we can start with sports:  

1. Many kids play sports for the love of the game. So, consider youth sports a sunk cost: Set a budget and define up front what you'll spend and how much time kids should dedicate to sports. There is always a cost but start with the basics, what's wrong with kids in a neighborhood league playing each other every week just for the fun of it. The business of travel sports and super youth complexes is just that a BUSINESS.

2. I often quote Shark Tank "If after a few years, you're not making money from it -- it's just a hobby". Well said Mr. Wonderful! Sports should be a hobby until someone is profiting from you. When they begin profiting from you pay you need a piece of that pie. Nothing is more American, Capitalistic, or dare I say fair. 

3. My go to silencer of my opps was a simple comparison to other sports. I knew for a fact that youth can turn pro and be paid as professionals in Tennis, Golf, Baseball, and other sports that were traditionally dominated by white players. I found it strange that my opps discarded this fact and suddenly were allergic to sports where African American youth dominated in participation. 

If the Fab 5 (Jalen Rose, Juwan Howard, and company) could literally turn around the University of Michigan's basketball program and profit to the tune of billions of dollars, should they NOT have benefitted in those gains? Should college football not compensate a star player that packed stands for years and then suddenly suffers a tragic injury? Should college sports profit from these amateur players knowing that the percentages are miniscule that most won't make it to the professional levels? Should a player not be able to market himself, if not is he "property" and who owns him?


Let's fast forward and it's beautiful to see athletes in college getting paid via their Name, Image, and Likeness or often called NIL deals. Last time I checked these students are not property owned by someone. I passionately watch Overtime Elite (OTE) which is a league that pays high school, yes I said high school players $100K a year to play in it's league. The chance to earn from your skill is the LEVERAGE you need to take advantage in determining your WORTH. You can't just show up you must provide skills someone values. Clearly the audiences VALUE these players and a lot of money is being made. Finally, I respectfully remind the players to have OPTIONALITY. Similar to what I learned in sports applies to like -- you must be a triple threat! Because your athletic skills will diminish and you must always remember what THEY, your opps think of you. 

I close with this caption from the disheartening treatment of Jonathan Taylor, the star running back of the Indianapolis Colts. Look closely at what the owner Jim Irsay says. Take into account, that Jonathan Taylor is the BEST player on this team. If you don't have optionality in LIFE, you will be simply looked at as property and stuck to unfavorable terms you may have to accept. I have the most euphoric feeling when I negotiate terms for myself and consultants -- "At the end of the day, I can walk away from the table and say no thanks". I also strangely find is less disruptive when I accept less than favorable terms in a deal -- "I signed that deal and if I don't like it I can terminate the deal (based on the terms I agreed upon).

I don't have any beef with what Jim Irsay is saying because it's just business. But I do know my opps and my job is to use my leverage and optionality to get the best deal -- because I do know after that contract is done, life goes on. Fortunately, nowadays my skill is my mind, and I am missed by my clients who call back but that will not always be the case. Here is that quote that sparked this post:

Per James Boyd of The Athletic, Jim Irsay said: “If I die tonight and Jonathan Taylor is out of the league, no one’s gonna miss us,” “The league goes on. We know that. The National Football (League) rolls on. It doesn’t matter who comes and who goes, and it’s a privilege to be a part of it.”

#knowyourworth #leverage #optionality

Friday, June 12, 2020

Hookup Alert - Caesars Entertainment (CZR) + El Dorado Resorts (ERI)


If at first you don't succeed (first you don't succeed),
Dust yourself off, and try again
You can dust it off and try again, try again
Artist: Aaliyah
Song: Try Again

Rest in Peace to the Great Aaliyah. Gone to soon but your music lives on in our hearts.  So I gave you a story about another one of my good friend’s Tilman Fertitta, who is the owner of the Houston Rockets, The Golden Nugget, and Landry’s Restaurant chains, etc. I saw him on TV the other day still sounding a little cautious, however; with things re-opening I’m sure his worst case fears are dissipating. See here for my risk breakdown of how Tilman danced with debt and got very lucky: https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2020/03/a-house-of-cards-pt-2-debt-gift-curse.html

Cue the music: a billi a billi --- he’s an old money billionaire, so there's a few things to learn. Thanks Lil Wayne I’ll take it from here. I wanted to highlight a trade my buddy Tilman brought to my attention a little less than two years ago. It’s no secret I like diamonds in the rough and Caesars Entertainment (yeah home to Caesars Palace in Las Vegas) was one of those gems I started looking at a few years ago. An iconic venue in Las Vegas, Caesars (CZR) is known worldwide and I’ve partied many a times there myself. But Caesars  over the years had taken on a lot of debt and hadn’t really done much.  So when Tilman and his Golden Nugget company made a play for Caesars I decided then was the time to strike.  This is a quick lesson for those just starting out in investing. Look for investments within your life that give you OPTIONALITY. Does it have a good MOAT --  that wide body of water surrounding castles like in Game of Thrones were there for a reason…to keep would be attackers at bay. Caesars brand is like that MOAT -- an iconic branded designed to keep people coming back to their properties. While I like good management, I like the right price even more. I followed CZR as it dropped into the $5-7 dollar range back in 2018 and apparently I wasn’t the only one watching. Pretty soon my boy Tilman and his Golden Nugget company were trying to slide into CZR’s DM. The stock shot up and I decided to pick some shares up as I was a little bit late to the party but believed it had more room to run up. After eight months of Golden Nugget trying to hook up, CZR ghosted on them.

My next lesson is stay clear headed. I got nervous and sold my position which ended in a loss. I should have stayed the course but I took the loss. Likely a result of listening to NOISE --- like being inundated with posts on Facebook and one of the reasons I don’t logon to the platform much. If you listen to NOISE you tend to move with the herd…and I am no sheep. I prefer going against the grain. Sheep will tell you to be patient for change when you clearly see systemic issues right in front of your eyes. I’m not having any of that.

But I am human; I panicked and sold my position for a loss. See below, the “L” I took back in 2018:
The nice thing about investing is it’s just you and a market of 10K+ stocks. If you’re right, you had the guts to make the call. If you’re wrong…it’s on you. All people want in life is a fair shot…the game not to be rigged…the knee taken off of our necks.  My "I told you so moment" was just 3 months later when rumor had it Caesars was now flirting with Eldorado Resorts (ERI).  Not happy about the “L” I took just a few months ago I felt a bit vindicated in CZR as an investment. I jumped back in as the two confirmed they were hooking up. My position was in the GREEN and I was on to the next trade. My 2019 positions for CZR:

Then COVID-19 happened and I watched the closure of casinos and gathering spaces to halt the spread of the virus. CZR cratered and fell as low as $3.52 on March 18th. I held strong this time…not following the herd…knowing CZR’s worth (in the stock market we call this intrinsic value). That’s what makes some of us different. I know my worth, which then helps me evaluate the worth of everything in life. CZR intrinsic value is iconic, trust I have the pictures to prove it.
My last lesson - do your own deals…own your own masters. It helps to be good in math but stop giving your dough to someone else if you can’t quantify that value they are bringing to the table. It’s not personal, it’s your independence and I treat it as such.

As you see above, I even opened a new stake in CZR yesterday because I have conviction the deal gets done. I’ve already been sent the follow merger terms to review and on May 12th things became clearer as Eldorado Resorts provided a timeline to close the $17.3 Billion acquisition of CZR that's not too far off. There are approvals pending from the states of Indiana, New Jersey and Nevada and then it will be sent to the Federal Trade Commission. The math is this: ERI is paying Caesars shareholders the sum of $8.40 plus an amount equal to $0.003333 (the “Ticking Fee”) for each day from March 25, 2020 until the closing date of the Merger (the “Closing Date”), multiplied by (ii) a number of shares of Caesars common stock (the “Aggregate Caesars Share Amount”) equal to (A) 682,161,838 plus (B) the number of shares of Caesars common stock issued after June 24, 2019 and prior to the Effective Time pursuant to the exercise of certain equity awards issued under Caesars stock plans or conversion of Caesars’ outstanding convertible notes (the “Aggregate Cash Amount”). Subject to the proration procedures set forth in the Merger Agreement.

The Truth is all that legal language above don’t mean much. Keep Life Simple, Treat People Fair:

At $8.40 a share in cash plus shares in the new company, I break it down like this:

-             If you bought below $8.40 à You’re getting all your cash back, some profits, and shares in a New Company ERI ( a free roll as my       gamblers call it)

-           If you bought above $8.40 below $10 Ã  I’m no gambler but any returns on your investment 80% and above is close to a playing with the house’s money. If you add in the free shares you’re receiving in the new company that = getting Optionality (most of my money back to move on to new investment plus free shares in a new company

I started this blog many years ago because I’ve witnessed system racism all my life. Early on I knew I needed an exit plan because Corporate America wasn’t thinking about diversifying its ranks. No mentors, I was one of the fastest rising African American’s to make the senior management ranks because I worked harder and longer than most. I could probably count the number of African American director’s at my company (which is the next level) on 2 hands in a company that boasts over 15K people so I knew that glass ceiling was real. I look forward to change but until these institutions are dismantled you’ll see me here diversifying myself for those moments when someone brings terms to me that aren’t equitable for me or my family…I always have the OPTIONALITY to say no. Sadly there is no strategy for racism, bad policing, and hate. I only know to do what my late African father taught me to do. Know My History, Know Where I’ve Come From, Treat Others with Respect, and to be the King I was meant to be…all while still not taking shit from anyone. I put love out into the world and expect it back. That’s all I ask for. 

Peace and Love ✌

Full Disclosure: I am long CZR option contracts. Fancy BS for I think the stock will go up

Wednesday, June 10, 2020

GRUBHUB (GRUB) + JUST EAT TAKEAWAY HOOKUP ALERT

If Not Now, Then When. This is the question I ask this great nation if we cannot come together and finally rid this world of systemic racism. No one's life should be snuffed out at the hands of another person -- especially the at the hands of the police who we are supposed to trust. Corporate boards, companies, universities, city-councils, police departments, when will you open your doors and diversify your ranks? I will continue to pound the table for justice and talk about the Pillars which are a guiding light for for balance and strength in this world. I am financially independent and educationally skilled Urban Economics professional --- that negotiates my on terms for work. I try to be spiritually balanced and physically and mentally fit so that I can take care of my growing family. But all this hard work is for nothing if at the end of the day, when I leave my house everything can be taken away from me in the blink of an eye OR worse 8 minutes and 46 seconds. #blacklivesmatter #justiceforGeorgeFloyd #nojusticenopeace


I have NOT been wanting to post anything but I owe it to you all and myself to stay the course. The system isn't designed for some of us to rise up even when you do everything right. My vision here at Urbanomics all those years ago was to be bridge for those of you that strive for independence or what I dub OPTIONALITY. Freedom to do what you want and still live an amazing life -- on your own terms. So my work continues:

I love speaking to people about OPTIONALITY and Grubhub is one of my young players on my investment roster exuding those qualities. OPTIONALITY lends itself to --- Heads I like the outcome, tails is just as nice of an outcome as well. The last time I wrote you UBER was making me an offer to take Grubhub off of my Junior Varsity team. I say JV because while Grubhub is young, risky, and shows lots of potential I don't trust them enough with a starting position on my investment roster. So they play a small but important role. Since the UBER everywhere skrt skrt offer, other teams have jumped into the fray. Yes, international teams are interested in this high flyer like LaMelo Ball hooping in Australia. 

I still like this Grubhub position and I still implore you to take risks even in an injust world. Together we can lift each other up. Here are the new details I just learned today about Grubhub from my dog, David Faber over at CNBC:

1) Grubhub and Uber are having issues. Like a young player not wanting to be traded over playing time in the future, Grubhub is nervous that US regulators won't like how big Uber will be in the food delivery business and nix the deal. So they are asking for big time dough if the deal falls apart. skrt skrt

2) Grubhub is evaluating a takeover offer from Just Eat Takeaway.com a food delivery company based out of the Netherlands.

Grubhub is looking like it's days on my roster are coming to an end. With multiple suitors, I was glad I took a small risk that paid off.

See my previous post about Uber's offer and a snapshot of my purchase price:

https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2020/05/grubhub-grub-uber-uber-hookup-alert.html

It's Time for us all to eat...and Grub is just the beginning.

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Charting a Path of Firsts

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans
How to Open My First Brokerage Account
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments)
Search My Blog

Black History
I truly believe to be great you need a strong understanding of the past. To be legendary, you must chart a path that has not been taken or is fraught with obstacles. I was reviewing a statistic that truly blew my mind -- One Hundred and Fifty years after the US named it's first African-American senator (Hiram Revels) only 9 other African-Americans have been nominated to that post since then.  Why?  This Can't Be Possible?

In the era where I hear about corporate and government initiatives to Lean-In further and to focus on Diversity and Inclusion, I wonder why asymmetric numbers like this exist -- not only in our US legislature but also in our college ranks, corporate executive ranks, and across profit and non-for profit board ranks.  People ask: "Do kids know?" and the simple answer is yes. I knew that disparities existed in life that no one wanted to talk about -- except through not so helpful methods of the real world: a) scared straight lecture in Middle School (told look left and right only 1 of us would make it); b) being harassed by police right AFTER participating in Big Brothers/Big Sisters charity event with my little mentee (a charity event I posted about here over 10 years ago); c) glass ceilings I observed at work when you can count the number executives of color with your fingers and toes.  While the cool buzzword is to blast through ceilings, the truth is these institutions so well entrenched that many people cannot simply blast through this road alone, they need help...a different path.

I argue you need to chart a path that goes around the status quo. A diversified path that gives you OPTIONALITY -- options when glass ceilings rise. Like Hiram Revels, the first US African-American senator, you can learn from his path to Washington in 1870.  His opponnents challenged his ability to serve as a Senator because Dred Scott (a case that determined African-Americans were NOT citizens) was only overturned a few years before. Prior to that roadblocks back then forbade the ordained minister from "preaching" and "teaching" people that looked like him.  Revels was recruited to run for the Senate because of his education, influence, and awareness of the real-world that surrounded him.

He is showing you a path -- Education, Build influential relations, and solidify your core pillars that I write about here to be more self-aware of the real-world that surrounds you with obstacles no matter what your race, color, or creed is.  Reduce your debt, live within your means, diversify your income streams, education gives you options.

Alibaba + JD.com
One way that I have diversified my portfolio is by increasing my exposure to Chinese stocks. To some this may sound scary as you often hear the numbers and data cannot be trusted that come out of China. I won't allow my portfolio to suffer from the same mistakes I see in policy that I noted above. My journey of wanting to own businesses in mainland China started through my research of high-flying technology companies. First I stumbled upon Baidu, dubbed the Google of China. I sought out the feedback of a former colleague who was from China and he acknowledged that it was his preferred site, along with many others.  When it came time to invest in Baidu, I was scared and didn't go through with the investment. I watched Baidu take off soon after I vowed to participate as others came along. That's how I found Alibaba (BABA), the Chinese version of Amazon. I would occasionally follow articles of the charismatic leader Jack Ma and as you can see in my previous posts, I pulled the trigger on BABA. I was able to get shares very close to IPO price, or the price when if first became a public company on the stock market ($80 dollar range). My only dismay is that I didn't load up back that as BABA trades for roughly $200 today. So I set my sites out for the next high flier, JD.com (JD). JD.com is in my opinion like the little brother to BABA because it is also in the e-commerce space and also growing fast. Oddly, the Trump Administration's trade war with China depressed my investment in JD for much of last year to the point it made my worst trades of 2018. But I recognized the importance China plays in the overall global economy and once the trade war tariffs were essentially rolled back to something much less meaningful -- JD has taken off from my initial range of $30 to now settling in around $40.  I will be looking to add to both of these positions that I own, BABA in preferably $160 range (it ain't going back to $80) and JD on any meaningful pull back I find.

Be Great   Be Thoughtful   Be Diversified    Always Have Optionality