QE2 is like a Pay Per View Fight...

Quantitative Easing part 2 (or QE2) is the Federal Reserves attempt to stimulate the economy through the printing and purchase of roughly $600 Billion dollar's in bonds. The Fed has two primary responsibilities and that is achieving maximum employment and price stability. So we've all been watching closely as I'm personally curious as to how this latest experiment will turn out. Of course, if you're the Fed you probably don't want to hear me calling it an experiment. This is why the discussion of the Fed's actions have been much like a prize fight. There are many economists that have pulled out the punching bags and are calling the Fed's actions a waste of money, devalues the dollar, and wishful thinking. Oddly, the Fed has openly punched back and noted that their actions are to jump start a stagnating economy which continues to lead to high unemployment and very low inflation.



Well the Fed's buying has begun and I have honestly been paying attention to the war of words a little too much. I got a little jittery as their has been more volatility over the last few weeks and I got to portfolio watching. But at the end of the day, I believe the Fed will get what they are looking for and that is more velocity. I think the move is actually to get the average investor that has been hedged (like me) or burned (like many) to move from their large bond positions back into stocks. As you have seen my writings here I believe that this is the gradual approach to take. I don't think you go crazy and just remove your bond positions but you begin to reallocate away from this great trade over the past few years. The other thing that may happen with more money in circulation is higher inflation. Well I doubt that will have a serious immediate action because if you're still thinking like me I am waiting for retailers to continue to drop their prices or they aren't getting my dollars. If I have this perception, many others do and the threat of inflation is real but not coming right away. Note...if it does we are slowing building a portfolio that has exposure to TIPS and commodities which will do well against inflationary pressures.

Note: This article was started in Nov and finalized on Dec 09

All that Glitters...Might be Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium

I have to admit I am big on Glitter right now. And I am not referring to Mariah Carey, who may have done an album and movie with the same title. I'm taking about the glitter of shiny metals. You know the metals that coined the phrase Bling Bling in the hiphop world. Don't believe me check out the old Cash Money Record artist BG who had a huge song that turned this phrase mainstream.

But back to my purpose for writing this article. My goal is to point out that it appears we have been fairly right about the direction of the economy and how it keeps chugging along. This is a slow and steady chug that has been scary because at times it feels like we could fall back to those dreadful days of 2008 & 2009. I struggled back then with identifying exactly how to setup and reallocate my portfolio for the future. If you recall I was in the camp that the economy was really bad and I even made the drastic decision to pull the string on all risky and mediocore stocks in your portfolio. The fact is they never should have been there but thats another story for another day. My guess back then was to increase your exposure to the following investments:

~ Gold (through ETFs)
~ Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (commonly known as TIPS)
~ Dividends

Well it was arguably a good call back then but the hard part for me was actually finding out the best ways to take advantage of this strategy. I have been very slow outside of identifying the obvious which is through ETFs. So I am going to place more of an emphasis on the identifying which stocks can help fulfill this strategy.

These asset classes are important because the Federal Reserve is acting to stimulate the economy which is suffering from limited core price appreciation (inflation) and job losses (9.6% unemployment, 17+% underemployed). Because politicians won't stimulate the economy the Fed realizes that someone must. They shouldn't be the only game in town because they don't have all of the tools...like say calling for a tax cuts or passing a huge infrasture bill. So their best solution is to flood the economy with CASH. This does a few of things:
1. Makes holding safe cash investments less desireable; stocks and riskier assets will rise
2. Supposed to make banks lend more because interest rates will be low and attractive
3. Make American made goods cheaper and easier to export as the DOLLAR loses value

Where I plan on exploring:

Hard Assets - Not just Gold but silver, platinum, palladium, real estate tend to rise in value and the dollar loses its value. These are stocks I will be exploring more of:

• Glitter ETF (GLTR) - Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium
• Barrick Gold (ABX)
• ENSCO (ESV)
• Cheasapeake (CHK)
• Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)
• Mariner Energy (ME)
• Ultra Petroleum (UP)
• Interoil (IOC)
• Platinum Groups Metals (PLG)
• Plains Exploration (PXP)
• Gold ETF (GLD)
• Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
• Petrobras (PBR)
• Suncor (SU)
• NovaGold (NG)
• Cobalt International Energy (CIE)
• PetroHawk (HK)
• Abraxas Petroleum (AXAS)
• Vale (VALE)
• Allied Nevada Gold (AMV)
• Exxon Mobil (XOM)
• Gammon Gold (GRS)
• Minefinders (MFN)
• ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG)

TIPS - no change here, this was a good call and inflation, while low now, should increase. Don't believe me check the FED minutes where they outright said they are looking for higher rates
Dividends - I like the recent stocks CLCT, IRM, RSG, EPD and other solid dividend plays.

As you can see I've got some work to do to find value for the future. Peace

Iron Mountain

Iron Mountain (NYSE: IRM) - You may not know much about this company but in the financial services world they are the guy that you call to do the dirty work. You know the uncool stuff like carrying high technology server tapes off-site and shredding of key corporate documents. Regulators often look and require these types of activities and small and medium size firms...and a number of large ones turn to Iron Mountain.

IRM - New Recommended Price Point: $20.25
It's hit a low of 20.06 so it is definitely time to accumulate. Lastly they have initiated a share buy-back which is typically great for shareholders. The stock took a hit today on this news so I have some more research to do...Its hard to argue someone believe the money could be used better.

Like its Dynamite

If you haven't heard the song Dynamite by Taio Cruz you have got to check it out. Great song and it describes how our picks have been lately. My goal is to hopefully post more but write less. In this turbulent market, I think we have the right strategy for investors: wait for huge discounts in stocks and don't be foolish... take gains where they make sense. I try to frequently summarize recent picks and give status updates on older picks:

American International Group (NYSE:AIG) - I am trying to track down the most recent post of AIG. If my tracker is finally up and running I will look to see when I bought the shares. AIG was a pick that practically hit me in the head. I had a hard time recommending this stock but to be honest I listened to Bill Gross awhile back who said buy what the US Government is buying. I will write more later, as to my opinion on why this would be the case with stocks that are basically owned by Uncle Sam.
Disclosure: I own share of AIG

Boston Scientific (NYSE:BSX) - Not a stock for weak stomach. But this company has made an acquisition and bounced high recently on publication about their defibrilator devices. This is one where I would continue to buy on dips. Dollar cost average in and be patient and this company is in a restructuring mode.
Disclosure: I own shares of BSX

Exar Corp (NASDAQ:EXAR) - Appears to have found a nice floor around the 52 week low mark. This could have good upside from here. Moving nicely already.

Audiovox (NADSAQ:VOXX) - Moving above recommend price.

Theravance (NASDAQ:THRX) - This one was a really solid call. It ripped up from recommended level after positive news based on FDA comments.

I also written recently about these stocks and continue to see solid upside going forward:

Iron Mountain (NYSE:IRM) Up very nicely from recommended price. I watched this closely and there was a chance to buy this stock at an even further discount around the $20.80 and above. Doing well so far.

Comcast - Note there are two tickers for this company. Its up over the recommended price. I will write more about the difference in a new post.

Long-Term Stocks:
I love these names and they continue do very well:
Enterprise Partners (EPD)
Radisys (RSYS)
Disclosure: I own shares of RSYS
Collectors Universe (CLCT)
Disclosure: I own shares of CLCT
Visa (V)
Disclosure: I own share of V

Semi Ain't So...

Yeah say it ain't so. My love affair with semiconductor stocks continues. In using my technical analysis screen, the next stock I am looking to recommend is Exar Corp (NASDAQ: EXAR). This is another integrate circuit semiconductor stock very similar to my Radisys selection. Stay tuned for a detailed analysis but for now:

~ Resistance: Near 52 week low levels
~ Bullish on sector: Technology
~ Catalyst: Technical support at recommended price points

I would add this to my Urbanomics Tracker, provided by socialpicks.com, however they appear to still be having technical difficulties.

Recommended Price Points: Accumulate shares in the range of $5.59-5.71. Look for pullbacks to build in a margin of safety.

3RD Quarter 2010 - Asset Allocation Reminder

A simple tip I can give any reader is to sign up for reminders that alert you to evaluate your investment portfolio each quarter. A while back I set up this option and I just received my 401K email reminder for this quarter. This was timely because it was soon followed by a question from a friend asking me to assist with their 401k portfolio evaluation.

So as I do every quarter, I will give you a quick update on the state of the markets. I haven't often been rendered with little to say but that's how I feel about this market right now. The data that the market is signaling is very mixed and one could say perplexing. If you don't believe me just follow the stock analysts on TV, the administration's economic team, or Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve. For each one of these groups, there is sharp disagreement on whether we are headed for a second dip into a recession or showing signs of growth after one of the worst recessions in history. Its gotten so heavily debated the primary topic in all these circles is whether there should be Quantitative Easing (QE) Pt.2 or a second stimulus effort. I won't go into grave detail but QE as it is nicknamed means that the Federal Reserve will take actions that "PUMP" more money into the economy. The likely predicted outcome may be interest rates dropping further which in turn is supposed to jump start demand for refinancing and loans for other activities (but many banks aren't lending). The Federal Reserve takes an action like this if they believe that the US economy is headed back into a recession or simply just growing too slowly to heal properly. This is why you see the administration attempting to pass "stimulus" type bills to help the economy, such as the most recent 'Small Business Tax Credit Bill' that was passed recently.

In short here is my opinion on the state of the markets and how you should arrange your portfolio accordingly.

State of the Markets

1) The Federal Reserve has been revising their growth outlook of the economy and signs are confirming growth, BUT SLUGGISH GROWTH

2) Right now I truly believe we are facing some disinflation or decline in prices. Think, how many people are holding off on purchasing something or getting a loan because they continually believe prices are going to fall. This is deflation and can be a drag to the economy...

3) The likelihood is that the Fed will implement QE Pt2 later this year because of the slow growth and this could lead to a further decline in rates. However, we should be aware that the the long-term outcome of pumping all this money has to be inflation down the line...which lead to the US Dollars value declining.

4) There is growth in the economy, however because it's such a bad situation not many people on main street will notice. Look, the stock market has been climbing higher and September was the best month on record since 1939, (yup since the Great Depression).


How to Arrange Your Investments & 401K Portfolios

1) If the Fed is forecasting slowing growth, we need to get "PAID" until things get better:

• Ensure you have a Dividend Yield Fund selected

2) Deflation can be a drag and inflation eats at your money. To protect against this:

• Select Treasury Inflation Protected Securities aka TIPS (if available to you)
• Select a Commodity Fund to participate in Gold, Oil, Gas, etc

3) QE Pt2 would continue to push rates down and makes bonds look like they have weak rates of returns:

• Re-Balance bond gains made and starting putting them into stock funds (buy on pullbacks)...with a priority to dividend and technology stocks

4) The economy growing so slow means that nobody is unhappy, so that leads to my last tip:

• Re-balance bond gains into international stocks and emerging markets.

Potential Allocation Breakout

60% Stocks - Dividend Fund, Large Cap/Growth Fund, International Fund (Equally)

40% Bonds - Short Term Bonds, Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (Equally)

A look back in time...

I've been following the ups and downs of the markets the last few months and what's interesting about my analysis is I don't really feel like much has changed. It has to be the most perplexing thing in the world for me now in my over 10 years of personal investing. It's perplexing because things are changing (slightly) and for the market we've seen its slow ascent higher. But I still think the market sucks. There is a lot of downside risk and I STILL like Commodities, Technology, Wireless.


I am clearing through my papers and I was looking of the habits of investing for success. The purpose of this blog was to capture the main theme of that write up and that was to keep a diary, a virtual diary in my example. The things to try and remember to do are:

~ Review your holdings (probably not daily)
~ Remember you portfolio includes all your accounts: Stocks, 401K, and IRA accounts do matter and they make up your complete portfolio
~ Pick how you want to measure your success: Success can vary from investor to investor so what defines whether you're up...a percentage, a target goal, etc
~ Start keeping track

I hope these tools go a long way into to helping you build your own portfolio. For me I do these things and really don't review my portfolio very frequently. I care about how they are trading but I don't get to concerned on their moves up or down. A great example was when we bought Burlington Northern Santa Fe. If you go back to when this stock was first recommended you will see why I thought it was important and at what prices I thought it was attractive. By taking notes, I still remember I liked this stock in the mid 70s because I believed that one of the positive things to take away from where the economy was at the time was the importance in commodities and the shift in emerging markets needing those commodities. I kept up with things but often didn't watch its swings. Its hard to wait but the odd thing was when Burlington finally got bought out at over $100 a share it was my friend that called me and alerted me of what had happened...I didn't know right away.


Here are a few examples of stocks that we've recommended over time and waited and watched them pay off as the fundamentals developed:


Supertel (SPPR) - I originally bought this in 2005 when it was known at Humphrey Hospitality. In researching my blog this was sold roughly 3 years later for around a 60% increase.

Cytyc (CYTC)- One of my all time favorite stocks, they were one of the first stocks I recommended and one of the first that I owned to get bought out. Bought at $17 and held until they got bought out in the $40s I believe.

Ambassadors International (AMIE) - This one was a stock that didn't move much for a long time I bought in 2004 for $13. I wrote an article 3 years later finally selling after I recall it hitting a peak of $32 and coming back down and settling in the mid 20s.

OIL - My call to buy oil stocks back in 2005 in my inaugural post was fitting. Who would have known the ride this commodity was going to be on going forward. Oil Post

Clayton Williams (CWEI) - Based on my call in oil, this was the a stock bought at $42 and this went all the up into the $100s. This took years to develop but what a ride.

Collectors Universe (CLCT) - Here is the final and prime reason to not let go of a good thing. CLCT is not the best stock I've owned over time, but it was the most stressful one to own. I have owned this stock since 2007. CLCT POST The story behind this stock and why I still own is because of fundamentals. This stock was paying a healthy dividend $.20c a quarter back then and helped me build up my war chest. When the decline of 2008 hit this stock plummeted to $4 when management cut the dividend. The only thing that stopped me from taking a huge loss was reading the financial report that was put out by the company. The newly appointed CEO (because the company booted the last one) outlined that the company could afford to still issue a dividend however it is prudent to hold the cash during tough times. So I waited and waited through the darkest period in the market and true to his word they brought the dividend back when the stock was around $6 a share. So I was essentially buying the stock each quarter with the dividends and lowering the cost of what I had bought the stock in. So today even with the stock standing at mid $13s a share we are seeing a 25% increase.


This is why its important to take notes.



Now it is even more important to remember your blunders and boy have I had a few in my past. The easiest one I can remember is:

Zhone Technologies - I rode this stock from $1.10 to the $1.40s. Then the fundamentals fell and I waited to long. This cost me a bunch as I never sold until this stock hit .70c! Ouch, they didn't get approval to sell in a region in Europe which they thought they had locked down. So this taught me be careful with penny stocks and they are volatile and their business can swing based on contracts.


Not Shorting Housing - This would have made me a legend if I knew about shorting back in the day. This post proves why you should write down your thoughts...my first call on housing and I didn't nothing about it: Housing


Rite Aid (RAD): Just a horrible pick and I'm glad to notice that I wrote about getting out of this position and putting my capital to better use. Ha to bad that cash went to Zhone Tech. LOL


NOT Buying Apple (AAPL) - I wrote a piece on this based on a reader question, and never followed my own advice.

BUYING ETFs - I will write here. Do not buy ETFs as an investment. I would only use these purely as hedges in your portfolio. They are difficult securities to own due to their calculations and just because oil is going up doesn't mean the ETF is going to do up also. Also, anything super levered (Banks x3) is just not smart!!! Repeat do not buy unless you are hedging your portfolio!!!