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Tuesday, November 21, 2023

Let's Go Splunking - Splunk Inc (NASDAQ: SPLK)

I finally get to write about a stock in my line of work -- CYBERSECURITY! So awhile back, I was tracking the DMs of a few friends in my Mansa Musa Network. I don't recall which ones, but it may have been my guys from the A-Billi squad: Mario Gabelli (Gamco Investors) or Jeffrey Smith (Starboard). But long story short is SPLUNK had been underperforming in the stock world. In the regular world it's like the person that has been single for too long and is finally looking for someone to "Put a Ring on It". So, like the horrible reality TV shows of today, they announced they were looking to hook up in a very public way. I saw my buddies mentioning the value in SPLUNK, but I didn't pull the trigger early on. I was tardy and finally decided to pick up some shares ONLY when they finally announced they had found a partner. This partner was the deep pocketed company, called CISCO. They are well known for their enterprise networking and routing equipment. If you don't know what I'm talking about, it's the device most people attach to their home network for internet that allows you to have wireless or WIFI service.

Definitely do not quote me because it has been a while, but I believe the buyout price was set at $157.50. So, what I did was use a well-known trading strategy on wall street. You've heard me refer to it before at the arbitrage approach. This means if I have high confidence that the deal (or hook up) is going to get done, an investor like me can benefit from the "spread" or difference between the price of when the deal is announced and what the final buyout or hook up price is. The risk becomes IF the deal does not get done (if the bride is left at the altar), this situation becomes a train wreck. Is this possible? Yes, it is --- see my posts on Tegna. This deal was thought to be all but certain and then the FTC stepped in and said the deal was harmful for customers across the country. So, you saw a stock go from $17 to nearly $22+ and come all the way back down because the deal was under investigation and ultimately canceled.

Now back to SPLUNK. I wanted to show you all what corporate governance looks like and what ownership looks like from an investor's standpoint. I got an email telling me it's time to vote on whether I think the merger should occur. I've pasted that screenshot here. I hope and believe this means we are one step closer to closing the deal. This is a great example of how hookups can help your portfolio.








Sunday, November 19, 2023

Hunting in Packs - Sam Biglari -- El Pollo Loco (LOCO)

I have had quite a busy year. I've not invested heavily this year because I was concerned about the increase in inflation and the impact to stocks. I think my thesis has generally been correct, but November is trying to upend this trend. What's important about November? Well, this past month aligns with the Federal Reserve signaling they will halt increases in interest rates. This usually bodes well for stocks. So, it may be time to slowly start reinvesting the funds I moved to boring old cash. But some smart money folks in my Mansa Musa Network still are calling for a recession in 2024 or 2025. So, I'll come back to this subject soon but for now I'm TRYING to be a bit cautious with my trades by being less active. The strange thing about investing is that it takes patience. Because I've been busy, I recently learned that a trade that I researched back in August 2023 just filled. How is this possible? Well, I use a strategy that will only execute a stock trade IF my terms are met. I hope this sounds familiar as I often write about navigating through life and trying to ensure that you do things the right way and on your own terms.

Now there is no need to babble any further about what the trade is the trade I found out was recently executed and I only realized it because it was sitting in my inbox "unread".

Hunting in Packs - Sam Biglari -- El Pollo Loco (LOCO)

I got a great hit in my feed about an investor, named Sam Biglari, who is in my Mansa Musa network. I've never hunted for stocks with him, but I've read about the brother as I learned he had a significant impact over Steak 'n Shake. Now Steak 'n Shake is never at the top of my radar and that could have been a reason why Sam made investments into the company years back which was in a dire situation. I heard they turned a profit back in 2021 and much is likely attributed to shrewd moves that led to roughly 90 locations closing. As I wrote this I wondered if Steak 'n Shake was a franchise operator and just learned he is moving to that model as well as turning them into more of a fast-food restaurant to reduce the labor costs of dining in (which is what they were known for).

Sam's name was on my radar back in August when I read he was picking up a large stake in another restaurant chain El Pollo Loco. They say it goes down in the DM, and in stock trading Sam is definitely interested in LOCO. I believe he picked up enough shares in the company that would put his ownership stake at just north of owning 9% of the entire restaurant chain (see what I did their with "stake"). Based on his track record and the fact that he's putting a $33 million dollar investment in, I'd like to nibble here at the stock and trade along. Do I just jump in --- hell no. Like Flo Rida and T-Pain once rapped you gotta go Low Low Low Low, I like to build a margin in by betting on the lower side of where a stock has been trading. I did my research (usually by analyzing the stock's movement in the last year) and set a price I'd like to get in.

Call me crazy, or should I say LOCO, but let's see how our trade does. I like LOCO around the $8 level and for I'll enjoy hunting with Sam.

#HuntinPacks - designates investments I made alongside someone in my network
#MansaMusaMentality

Saturday, November 18, 2023

Investing in You - Your Retirement Savings Bag

I was having a chat with one of my employees and the term 60/40 came up as I have the business news stations on as a requirement for my staff to learn about how business intersects with their everyday life. So, the topic of 60 / 40 came up and he said quite, simply --- "What is 60 / 40?". I immediately responded with the answer that it is a commonly used term for the ratio of your investment of retirement portfolio that should be allocated across stocks (60%) and bonds (40%). He then whipped back who in the world would know that and I kept insisting that it's common knowledge. I then realized once again the purpose of this blog and why I've been writing for the last 20 years. There are so many things that I take as common knowledge but when shared with the world in a simplified way --- it can change minds and lives. 

Saving for Retirement 101

There are no special tricks when it comes to planning for your retirement. It takes balance, discipline, courage, and humility. 

Balance - You must be able to balance your personal finances and position yourself in a way that allows you to save extra money after ALL of your business and personal life expenses are covered. EASIER SAID THAN DONE. This is why I'm not a fan of all of these modern-day financial podcasts. You're telling me to retire but no one is there to guide you along the way. You want my clicks and eye balls but you don't have the true playbook. I'm not going to get into details today but you need to monitor your expenses daily and save from when you first start working or retirement may be difficult or a burden to your loved ones.

Discipline and Courage - If dieting is hard, imagine how hard it is to save money each paycheck for something 10/20/30/40/50 years from now. That takes a type of discipline most people aren't ready for. Find a system that works for you. If your company takes money out of your paycheck then great do that. If you put it in a savings account that you don't touch, perfect. If you need a financial coach or advisor -- they get financially fit. It take courage to do something not everyone is doing.

Humility - I always like to add in the concept of legacy. There is a certain amount of humility that is needed to save not only for yourself but to be humble enough to know that eventually you won't be around and your family or extended family may benefit from a boost. I've heard the phrase the rich get richer, but I truly believe it's the rich pass on wealth from generation to generation which only makes it harder for them to be broke. We speak of a simple term call compounding interest and at some point your funds or the legacy funds you leve behind with accumulate to a level where it truly generates enough income for someone to survive upon. To understand that you may not benefit from this but your future generations may --- take some mind-blowing humility in how life works. There are some truly self-made millionaires and billionaires but if you ever did some research on some of the famous or rich people that you follow --- chances are they inherited that wealth of skillset. 

I would fail if I was asked the question, what book are you reading. I tend to read and save webpages of articles. My phone has over 30 open pages of articles I want to get back to. One of those was about 401(k) accounts. This has become the default type of account for many people who work corporate jobs and usually do not have a pension. Sadly, this isn't available to every person in the world or even every American. The concept behind the account is what we write about here all the time ---  saving money after each paycheck for a rainy day or retirement.

So here is a quick rundown of how to save for retirement:

Save Cash - Save cash after every paycheck and put it in an envelope or savings account. The problem with cash is if you can easily get to it you may easily spend it or like bitcoin --- if the amount gets large and you begin to get unwanted attention it becomes ripe for stealing.

Individual Retirement accounts (IRAs) - Often called traditional IRA, this type of retirement account is tax deductible from your income and if you set it up seamlessly the money comes out and you now have rules imposed on you that penalize you from pulling funds out. There are US government limits on how much money you can make to contribute so do a quick search to see if you qualify. I'm getting old but awhile back the limit was roughly if you're single and make over $75K a year the full contribution begins to scale down. There are limits for other filing types such as married jointly, etc.

Pensions - This is a dinosaur method of saving money for retirement. It was a gem when you had a company of government entity pay for your retirement. You work and they foot the bill for a defined amount of cash you would receive for all those years of service. If you ever get an opportunity to earn a pension with an organization, consider this a huge huge incentive to work for them. As this is a great way to get money during your golden years.

401(k) - The vehicle that took the reins from pension accounts many years ago. The simple way to think about this is you are responsible for your retirement as the money comes directly from your paycheck. To incentive people, the money is tax deductible, so this was effective way to create and increase the wealth gap. If you don't work for a company that offers this type of retirement account or you don't have a good handle of your personal budget --- then you'll be left behind as pensions are a thing of the past. You miss out on reducing your taxes and free money as many companies provide a small match (think donation that tax deductible for companies 👀) into your retirement account.

Roth 401(k) - similar to its sibling, this retirement account is funded with after-tax money. The cool thing is the word "after-tax", so it grows tax-free. It's cousin is the Roth IRA, but you get to stash away way more than the paltry amount allowed for a Roth IRA, and don't forget that match of donation added by companies is still allowed.

I'm planning to continue to learn more about the mega backdoor roth path that were pushed to the headlines by the likes of Peter Thiel and others just a few years ago. It is a way to move after tax contributions into a retirement vehicle that can no longer be taxed. Ironically Peter then used his "retirement account" to invest in companies that went on to earn him over $6 Billion dollars in returns if I recall correctly. We are now in High Earning Not Yet Rich (HENRY) status for those of us that want to explore if their company offers this in their retirement plan. Further, not many of us can use our account to invest in startups the way Peter did. But hey we can all dream so that's what I'll be researching in the future.


Sunday, November 12, 2023

What Am I Investing (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust GBTC) | Reading (Story of Henrietta Lacks)

  

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans


How to Open My First Brokerage Account

Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments)

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Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) (GBTC)

In the past, I've written about Bitcoin and the fact that it has no intrinsic value. Bitcoin itself does not produce anything of value for you and me in our daily lives and if you need another real-life example --- try gold. These types of assets have a value assigned by a marketplace which consists of buyers and sellers but there is not tangible way to tell which direction the asset's value will increase outside of the marketplace of investors increasing or decreasing their interest in Bitcoin. I guess I could get a brick or bullion of gold and use it as a paper weight, but what do I do with a digital currency? Well --- there is one use case that I continue to argue for, and it comes from my previous experience in banking, fund transfers, and the international payments landscape, however, I will save that use case for the blockchain and NOT Bitcoin for another day.

So if I'm hating on Bitcoin, why was I suddenly interested in a Bitcoin Trust a few months ago? This is peculiar because outside of my brief gambling investments in Coinbase, an exchange or place where you can store and trade your coins, I've never tried to invest or own the digital currency. Here is a breakdown of my thoughts and the trade I made over a month ago:

My Research:
I wonder if I call it research if I was listening to business news in my office, which I do on a daily basis. For the past few years, I've heard two warring factions go back and forth about the legitimacy of Bitcoin: 1) The US Federal Government and 2) The Bitcoin Industry (and in particular the CEO of Coinbase, Brian Armstrong). I thought both had compelling arguments so in the end I stuck my original thesis and that's that I can't make or produce anything with Bitcoin. This underlying point always lets me know that I'm speculating or gambling. I simply HOPE any money on a Bitcoin related assets goes up based on luck, timing, news, etc. 

My investment:
I know these warring sides were at odds on whether the public should be able to invest in Bitcoin in a fund, called an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). An ETF is a simple vehicle that gives everyday investors the ability to invest in Bitcoin in their personal and 401K accounts without having to go out and use crypto exchanges. I hope I haven't lost you hear but the risk of crypto exchanges is you have to really be aware of how to store your passwords to your crypto wallet or you will be at risk of losing your funds to simply forgetting, easy hacking, or in some high-profile cases people have become targets of robberies to obtain their passwords. The fight over an ETF means I can log into my investment account and select the ETF and the ETF takes care of the "security" of coins on behalf of all the investors. So what do 2 sides do when they can't agree -- they sue each other. I have been following the lawsuit and the federal government (SEC) lost it's case against Grayscale Investments. This is an important training moment for everyone --- I can gamble if I know that I'm gambling and willing to lose my investment. I learned awhile back that the GBTC was trading for less that the value of the Bitcoin assets it holds. So, my simple thesis is that the ruling in the court case means the value will hopefully appreciate back to par (or what it's worth) because Grayscale won its case and there will be more "gen pop" interest in Bitcoin if ETFs are allowed.

A little over a month ago, I bought GBTC at $20. I watched it drop in the weeks after and got nervous that I was a fool. But I got busy with work and just decided to hold on as I thought my thesis made sense...at least to me it did. And since then it has caught fire. I'm not a believer in Bitcoin but I do believe that I guessed correctly and early. Since the news broke, other companies have declared they want to offer Bitcoin ETFs and I think this gives the digital currency staying power as it will be easier to own. We'll see how long I hold but for now, I'll take the "W".



Disclosure
- I own GBTC and purchased just over a month ago around $20
- I currently trade Coinbase shares via options; my strategy is I like it low when it dips in the $30s and $40s range and in the past have traded out around $140.

 

Know Your Worth - Henrietta Lacks

Back in August of this year, I read the amazing story of a family that sued a large pharmaceutical company. They claimed the company used their mother's biological cells for research and drug development purposes for profit AND never compensated them properly. This story goes back to the early 60s and seems like a clear slam dunk it today's society where we easily take about brand and profiting from it. So how can something like this happen in America? Well, it could depend on who's cells they were. As a professional in the cybersecurity and privacy space, I found this story sad but also a rallying cry for consent and privacy rights. I would narrate the story here, but I'll post some links for your casual reading. It's a reminder of why I tell everyone to know their worth and what you are consenting to. Remember the name of an African American women, Henrietta Lacks and how her biological cells went on to fuel research, development breakthroughs, and profits for an entire industry. Then think about how so many were enriched by these developments the alpha --- the person who set all this in motion was left behind. 

After reading the amazing story of Henrietta Lacks --- think about your brand, your worth, what you sign, and what you give away. While this is a story that has to do with race, we all can learn from it and build generational wealth by ensuring your consent, your brand, and your likeness are used on YOUR terms. I teach my mentees "The Art of Negotiating" and share that many things in life come down to how you negotiate terms with the person or parties across the table. I am sharing a New York Times article because it came across as a neutral party. Even though John Hopkins university is now honoring Henrietta Lacks with a building, the article acknowledges the university took her cells without consent. It goes on to talk about Thermo Fisher Scientific. For the life of me, I can't understand how a company of good conscience can try to sell "her" cells and "her" intellectual property rights without compensating "her" family.

Link to New York Times article: Henrietta Lacks

#knowyourworth    #theartofnegotiating