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Wednesday, February 02, 2011

Positive Earning and all to important Approvals...

I will first start off with Orexigen (OREX). The did not get the coveted FDA Board approval for Contrave, their weight loss drug. I was watching closely as many people made calculated bets on which way this all too important approval would go. I think the best write up was from an article on Seeking Alpha which outlines the cases for this drug to not get approved right away. It outlined points from the 2010 panel, not board, meeting which outlined that many doctors on the panel and board are concerned about the elevated readings blood pressure in people that were part of the phase III testing. Glad I read that article because I almost pulled the trigger. Oddly enough I think their may be an opportunity now that the stock was slammed by over 72% to the downside after the closing bell. It was from roughly $9 to a 52 week low of $2.47. If you've got ice in your veins because of the blizzard. Nibble here on Orexigen because again there is an all to important thesis out there about this stock. It was known in the FDA panel review that they already thought more monitoring of patients would need to be done based on patient data. This along with the comments from panel members should have been taken into consideration as the FDA was not looked in a favorable light due to the last approved diet drug that had to be pulled from the market. There is clearly a high hurdle rate that must be met for diet drugs. But at these levels for a drug that made it through Phase III with fairly good efficacy tests should be looked at closely.

Baidu (BIDU) - I've been watching this stock and the earnings were better than expected. Now is way above where I want to acquire but remember this is the Google of China, and there is serious value to be had.

Radisys (RSYS) - Finally, they reported better than expected earnings. We will need more quarters of this for the stock to keep rising.

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