I don't know the true answer to that question but I can tell you there are better places to park your money in times of distress. As you have learned from my last article, I recommend being very nimble in markets like this. I have not given up on the buy and hold strategy because I think the ultimate goal is to find deeply discounted value in your portfolio. But I also suggest that you pick and choose your battles wisely and not be afraid to walk away from poorly performing stocks. Now I know that sounds hypocritical when investments like Clayton Williams (CWEI), which was down roughly 30% in our first two years of ownership, rebounded and have returned us gains of over 150%. But notice CWEI had no fundamental changes in the company's operations and was in a perfect sector to outperform the market in the long run (CWEI was just waiting for its deeply valued stock to get mainstream attention). But I'm never too proud to part ways with a poorly performing stock like Zhone Technologies (ZHNE). ZHNE is a stock I love but the fundamentals changed and I was forced to sell the stock for a BIG LOSS. I was able to OFFSET this LOSS with a timely SHORT SALE (Betting the stock will go down) of ZHNE.
RECESSION PROOF
I have already mentioned buying infrastructure stocks of oil producers see the OIH recommendation. This is an excerpt from a recent article about the value in investing in Natural Gas Pipeline stocks. If this analyst is correct, my stock screen is identifying a timely move into energy infrastructure stocks.
This is a taken from Seeking Alpha's article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/83856-spectra-energy-gas-pipelines-make-great-recession-proof-stocks?source=side_bar_long_ideas
Seeking Alpha on why gas pipelines make great recession proof investments:
"It has been said before, but pipeline stocks are like railroads for natural gas. Simply put, the demand for natural gas is up and correlates somewhat with oil prices, but the upside with pipelines is that they do not have the competition from other forms of transportation. In order to move and significant volume of natural gas a pipeline must be used.
Pipelines are traditionally managed very conservatively, as is Spectra Energy, and make their money through cost-of-service contracts and other required services. This means that cash flow is relatively stable and predictable when compared to the market as a whole. This can be referenced by viewing the Beta coefficients of pipeline stocks which show significantly less volatility than the broader markets.
I have stated before, and I will state again that pipelines are great recession proof stocks.
On top of preserving and likely growing capital, investors can collect a healthy (and growing) dividend yield."
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Stock Ticker
Stocks use a Ticker or an abbreviation to allow you to quickly find them. Facebook (Ticker: FB), Apple (Ticker: AAPL), Netflix (Ticker: NFLX), Alphabet (we know it as Google, Ticker: GOOG), Microsoft (Ticker: MSFT).
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