Touch My...

Now I would love to finish the title of this post with a song I can't get out of my head..."Touch My Body" by Mariah Carey. What's crazy is people will say she's too old for me but whats wrong with a mature older woman thats seems to get better with old age. And to make matters worse the remix ain't half bad either!

But I know you're thinking, this is way too much information (TMI) and what does this have to do with stocks. Well...nothing so how about I let you into my mind and let's elaborate a little bit more on some of the stocks that are lighting up my radar. I call this the "Touch My Stocks" portfolio, even though they will never replace my Mariah. And what better to start my list off with then a truly gentlemen stock, Rick's Cabaret. As always I emphasize, only buying stocks at great price points that give you the opportunity to jump in a favorable discount. Its tough to wait for these levels but we must be patient.

Touch My Stocks Portfolio:

Ricks Cabaret (RICK)
Superman Price: 14.80
Accumulate from anywhere below 16.90

New York Times (NYT)
Price: 18.68
Accumulate from anywhere below 19.87
Note: Eager to see that private equity firms have pushed and obtained 3 seats on the NYT Board of Directors and may look to push strategic alternatives; also NYT is a proud family owned members and they may want to sell before the private equity firms begin to call the shots...do I hear another media firm sale to Rupert Murdoch

Move Inc (MOVE)
Accumulate from anywhere below 3.05

Asset Acceptance Capital (AACC)
Accumulate from anywhere below 10.89

Coinstar (CSTR)
Accumulate from anywhere below 29.04
Thinking about pulling out my cape and supermaning the stock @ (28.50)

H&R Block (HRB)
Accumulate from anywhere below 19.26

Jeffries Group (JEF)
Superman: 14.82
Accumulate from anywhere below 17.59

A Perfect Storm...

Unfortunately the perfect storm continues as another critical problem is looming and this one is on a global scale. The world is becoming hungrier and hungrier. There are recent stories that are surfacing with details of third world countries around the world that are struggling to feed their people or going to extreme measures to guard food and crops as the prices of food continues to surge.


Commodities like copper and food are to be watched closely. Stories that once sounded absurb about thiefs here in the US stealing copper from new housing developments or even power lines are becoming NORMAL. And now stories about around the world of uprisings over food prices is also becoming NORMAL. Some say the perfect storm surrounds the following reasons:



~ Rising oil prices

~ Rising demand by emerging countries like China and India for food and other commodities

~ Rising demand for biofuel which has lead to land and crops once used primarily for food to now be used as an alternative fuel for oil

Now these are not laughing matters but as the prices continue to rise in commodities like wheat, corn, copper, oil, natural gas, aluminum, etc...I continue to stick by the trades that make these industries possible. I have given you those names here recently, but I also ask that you include the agricultural plays.

Stay tuned for more information on how to profit from the commodity storm.

Sell the Rally!!!...

I am sitting here because I got the chance to get home early and watch my main man, crazy Jim Cramer. And he is attempting to go after the infamous question of when you sell stocks. His main points are to sell into the rally for big winners, and also for losers that have gone up due to the momentum of the market. During his show, Cramer talks about taking on unnecessary risks (due to things such as your stock going up too much) and your portfolio not being diversified. I do agree that it becomes a tough situation when you have the following scenarios:

1. A great stock does very well for you and now consumes a large amount of your portfolio
2. You made great choices on an industry or sector like oil and own a number of stocks in that industry/sector
3. You have a loser or dog of a stock and it begins to rally when the market rallies

URBANOMICS ANALYSIS

Cramer responds to these situations by saying that you need to take a little bit of the table and stay diversified, have cash on the sidelines, and sell a dog into a momentum rally.

I am torn between this stance because you know I am an avid follower of Warren Buffet, who believes buying a stock at a discounted price and paying attention to the fundamentals, not the stock price. My position is that you should never be afraid to sell a portion of a big win and definitely sell a dog that begins to rally. However I will lean toward Buffet and his position on owning, holding, and selling stock. I will give my interpretation of his opinion:

Owning a few really good stocks, is similar to being an agent and signing some very good college hoop stars. Some of these athletes will go on to be professional basketball superstars and if you are the agent then your agent fees will grow and one of your major superstars will become a big portion of your income.

Here comes the kicker --> For me to tell you that you should sell your really good investments is like me telling you, as an agent, to get rid of negotiating Michael Jordan's contract because he's so good that his bigger and bigger contracts are bringing you in so much money that its dwarfing your other clients.

No! Holding on to superstars, and investments:
- Reduces your transaction costs
- And it increases your after-tax returns

You would never let go of Jordan and therefore you should not sell an investment just because you've gotten huge returns. Keep the superstar investments until the fundamentals change.

Recent picks I hope you like:
~ OIL HOLDRS ETF (OIL)
~ AK Steel (AKS)
~ Medcath (MDTH)
~ Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI)

On the URB Radar for acquisition at the right price:
~ Ricks Cabaret (RICK)
~ NY Times (NYT)
~ Move Inc (MOVE)
~ Asset Acceptance Corp (AACC)
~ China Digital Holdings (STV)
~ Coinstar (CSTR)
~ H&R Block (HRB)

Earnings Season/New BUY Recommendation...

It is officially Earning Season and it begins with the stock that leads the alphabet, and that would be "A"...or Alcoa. I still stand behind my last post and believe that the economy hasn't changed much and the fundamentals need to become more positive. Foreclosures, inflation, and oil are still hurting average people worse than the plague. So how do we play the market, well we chill a little bit and start interpreting all the data coming out of Earnings Season. I still stand by plays and think that commodities and technologies are the ways to go.

I hope you liked:

Oil Services Exchange Traded Fund (AMEX:OIH)
AK Steel (NYSE:AKS)

Also, I think now may be the time to make a play on Ricks Caberet (NASDAQ:RICK). There has been multiple deals that have been closed recently that mean more tips for Ricks! They are putting those tips to work by acquiring other clubs and most recently a magazine. What an ingenious way to get more customers into your establishment, sell them while they are reading a magazine they obviously enjoy.

So today I will recommend Ricks Caberet and as you know I love getting a steal of a price. Before the good news, they hit a nice intraday low at 14.80 two day ago. I will use this as a steal of a price and say its like getting a free trip to the champagne room. I would be accumulating this stock anytime it dips under $16 dollars.

So its safe to say T-Pain is not the only one that's in love with a stripper.

Tough Times

I don't believe the underlying economics have changed right now for the US. Need more proof check out the personal testimonials of American's across the country. These are everyday people and they are sharing how the recession, inflation, credit crunch, and housing bubble are affecting them. See this story from CNN.COM:

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/news/0803/gallery.real_stories/index.html

So with these realities right in front of us. I still REPEAT that I like same industries that I have been discussing for the last few months.

Commodites - Examples are steel, oil, gas
Technology
International & Multinationals
Popular Product Companies - Research in Motion (blackberry), Netflix, Apple

URB RADAR:
Check out a few of the companies that have come up during my screens:

Ricks Cabaret (NASDAQ:RICK)
New York Times (NYSE:NYT)
Phillip Morris International (NYSE:PMI)

Ride the Rails

I continue to be upbeat after reading that CSX Corporation made the Zacks.com buy list. I believe Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) will share in the positive new about the railroad stocks.

This write-up was provided by Zacks.com:

CSX Corporation (CSX) shares received a very nice little pop when the company boosted its first quarter guidance on Mar 31. This news came on the heels of the company's very solid fourth-quarter and full-year results in which its quarterly profit was up 5% from the same period last year. Put theses two factors together and you have a recipe for a stock that is on the move. CSX shares are up close to 30% on the year.

March Edition: URB in 60 seconds

March flew by and Easter was alot earlier than it has been in a long time. But the markets didn't disappoint and here are some things that are on my mind as we move into April. (no particular order):

Phillip Morris break-up: Yeah I know cigarettes are almost a thing of the past. You can’t even smoke in a bar/club…thank goodness for my clothes, hair, and lungs. But a new target is in sights for the tobacco industry. With less restrictions, tobacco companies are growing overseas and fueling growth for these companies. Now this is an industry that often gets labeled as a "sin" or "vice" stock/industry...no arguments from me but once Phillip Morris (NYSE: MO) spins of Phillip Morris International (NYSE:PMI) it will be off to the races. With double digit growth in the pipelines, many hope this will be a cash cow like its poppa in the US. There are some concerns with how the spin-off will be taxed so I won't be jumping in before that.
said.


WiMAX - Think wireless radio and other devices anywhere you go. Some say this new technology that provides wireless access acrosss metropolitan cities will be the wave of the future. Does this mean goodbye to Satellite Radio...we'll see. A number of big players are onboard, Intel, Sprint, Time Warner, Comcast, and Clearwire to name a few.

Private Equity Firms don't play nice - After getting my heart crushed by private equity (JC Flowers & others) dissing Sallie Mae (NYSE: SLM) and all my gains, these guys are at it again. Private equity firms just dissed Clear Channel and sent the stock spiraling down...guess the contracts just weren't written that tight in the first place!

Rebound in Financials and Mortgages - This rally spurned by the "life preserver" handouts by Ben Bernanke caused a rally on these stocks. But this is short lived in my opinion. Remember, consumer confidence is still very low, banks are still getting downgraded, and the housing situation is till a mess.

Federal Reserve Intervention - Nuff said on this topic, throw me a life preserver, playa.

Kenyan IPO – Safaricom (SCOM.NR) A good friend gave me the heads up on this telecom giant in Kenya. The window for the IPO opens March 28 and it should be interesting across many fronts. The IPO is priced to get a large local participation across the East African countries...not just Kenya. And like my idol Warren Buffet preaches, go with something you know. And after my trip to West Africa last year, I know that mobile phones are the hottest commodity in emerging markets (okay maybe not the hottest, but close). With costs being cheaper to put cellular towers up instead of wired phone lines many emerging countries are embracing cell phone. And with the ability to send someone minutes (almost like exchanging them as currency) this will be the backbone of technology growth across the world. But let's focus on Safaricom... its got the backing of Vodafone who is 40% stakeholder...which isn't a weak amount. And it has an 80% marketshare!!! Yeah take a minute to let that settle. I would be all over this like white on rice, but my brokerage firm said that they may not have access to this IPO, but note Morgan Stanley is a playing a role as a transaction advisor so if you can get in on through Morgan...make it happen.