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Showing posts with label Match. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Match. Show all posts

Saturday, January 02, 2021

IMANI | FAITH - A Roadmap for The New Year

Happy New Year to you all. On the 7th and final day of Kwanzaa, I want to remind you that you gotta have faith -- I won't tell you what in...but in something. A deeply rooted belief that will serve as your guide or as your beacon. Because one thing I do know is life has its moments that will truly battle test you. Imani is special to me because this is the name of my 3 month old daughter. And the meaning of her name is rooted in one of my core pillars -- Spirituality. 

I was watching one of those morning shows and each year people are fed the same thing over and over. Get ready to make your list of resolutions or let's look back and see what I accomplished against last years list. I believe this exercise great for marketing, especially for gyms (Planet Fitness), exercise clothes and equipment (Peleton), and dating websites (Match) BUT it's mainly a waste of time. The first thing you learn in math, statistics which is recited in the financial stock market is: "Past Performance Does NOT Predict Future Results". So most of the short term goals that people make year to year are arbitrary IF they are not stitched together to support some type of higher plan or roadmap.  I wanted to pause and repeat this, setting goals are good. But you need a larger roadmap that says this is where I am today and this is where I want to be in 1, 3, 5, 7, 10 years. The interim, or short term goals, you set each year are good to write down but they should support this larger mission. This larger mission must be flexible and give you multiple paths to succeed or you will be backed into a corner by your own goal planning. Planning, road mapping, or charting your life like this take faith. As the great boxer Mike Tyson once said: "Everybody does have a plan until they get punched in the mouth. The real key to success is to have the right kind of plan to be able to move forward after they get hit."

It takes IMANI, a faithful commitment, because when adversity sets in how do you respond to that punch? Are you able to lessen the blow through advanced planning (i.e., preparation). This planning allows you to access the situation:
Do I find ways to lessen the blow? (block the punch)
Do I take a different path due to advanced planning? (change strategies)
Or do nothing? (this is my favorite strategy:  keep fighting, reassess later, get guidance)

How to Develop A Roadmap

Be Realistic - Most kids dream of being rich, but the stock market given you hundreds of years of free data. Most investments, NOT ALL, will return roughly 7-10% a year. Why not start will something based in data? (Example: At the end of every year, I compare ALL of my investments and how much they've returned against this benchmark). And if someone promises, guarantees you something higher, yes they are likely lying.

Be Flexible - I argue do NOT label me. So my goal is not to be a professional athlete (like I and every poor kid dreamed of in my day). My goal now is to learn the business of sports, while focusing on being an athlete. My goal now is to learn the music industry, while focusing on being an artist. I can videotape games (millionaire Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra's path to being a championship coach), I can be an agent, I can coach...and it just so happens I can ride my god given talents on the court or field for as long as I am allowed. Why, well the thing with very specific goals is if you fail...many lose their way or motivation or fight. If you have a multiple path roadmap --- my options are limitless. Need Proof: LeBron James had an HBO Documentary, Student Athlete, and he has brought a light to what I'm saying: Student Athlete reveals that of the 91,775 men who played NCAA basketball or football in the 2016-17 academic year, 303 were drafted by the NFL or NBA.
 
I can learn the business of music and while I look to drop my mixtape, I can learn about contractual rights, sample clearance, and how distribution work. I appreciate all my favorite musicians BUT my billionaire buddy Dr. Dre became super wealthy when he branded headphones...something we all had been using for years. He made them premium, exclusive, different and made more money than he ever did of the Chronic (no disrespect). Next, is my billionaire buddy, Daniel Ek.  He is the creator of Spotify and with a net worth of $4.5 Billion he makes more than any of my favorite musicians do and he can't rap?? But he set out to solve a problem. My generation was growing tired of radio and ads, we loved the ability to download free music (see Napster), but he recognized the industry and artists would jump at a new opportunity to distribute music over the internet (while not having it stolen for free). I am fan of royalties, but think of it like this --- the artist get's paid every time their song is played...Spotify and its shareholders get paid every time music is streamed.

Have Optionality - For me, I have faith in my probability/stat class in college. It was the best course I've ever taken in life. I understood how people made decisions, why they took the risks they did, and how people are often overconfident because they've miscalculated the situation. So you learn about what's called a decision tree.  As I flashback, my plan at 19 is still going strong:

Use the power of my degree and university to find decent paying job:
Outcome - I appreciate networks and humans wanting to belong to a tribe. I had an internship all 3 years in school until I graduated and most were tied to previous alums proud to recruit from their alma mater. Do NOT under estimate the power of networks getting you a job

Build personal wealth through an investment portfolio:
Outcome - At 19, I took out a loan from college, evaluated the rate and understood what the stock market normally returned (see above). To me it wasn't risky...most people didn't look at the data. It also helped that goal #1 was to find relevant work. My internships helped pay my school debts so my loans could be used to begin building my personal wealth. Do the math, give me a loan for 4% and if I make the standard 7-10%, I can afford to pay back the loan and that just $$ seeded my first portfolio with Datek, which was eventually bought out by TD Ameritrade. I even introduced a few of my roommates on to my theory back then.

Multiple Streams of Income (to reduce risks from systemic oppression):
Outcome - I grinded hard in Corporate America for many years. Have a very tiny pension to show for it. My first year they ended the program...just my luck. But it gave me the ability to build a massive 401K plan over the years, partially paid by my employer. So check the box for retirement goals. I already discussed my personal investment account above, so my income from work was split into a savings account (rainy day ONLY) and a personal use account for my weekends of BYOB restaurants, sports bar, and of course clubbing. I had dream of real estate but I had no experience in the industry so I held off. Accidentally my dream home became my first investment home. I bought during the lows of the 2008 crisis and thank goodness for the lessons I learned early. I disagree with most real estate professionals - like stocks the most important thing in real estate is Price, Price, Price (not location). My real estate gave me, equity, flexibility to rent. and is appreciating because of the price where I bought it. I had people in my ear for the previous 5 years saying buy a home, I thought prices were inflated. Glad I waited.

Have Imani - Faith that you will find a way, but it starts with the spiritual guidance I learned from my parents. The guidance from the teachings of African culture, such as Kwanzaa to respect my elders. This ability to treat others how I wanted to be treated showed up in my job reviews. It allowed me to study, build relationships, and execute even though I was surrounded by people who may not look like me. It gave us something in common once they opened their hearts. For moments they would forget and tell me things like you're different. I politely reminded them, I'm not --- you just have to open your heart to being around more people that don't look like you (like you've done for me and vice versa).



Monday, June 15, 2020

Reader Question -- Groupon (GRPN) + Reverse Stock Split

So I am grateful for anyone that takes time to read my posts because to me I hope these posts light a fire under you. If Not Now Then When? When would you like to live in a world that breaks the chain of class systems and systemic racism. When do you plan to wake up and realize that you are responsible for looking out for your family and love one's best interests (a stimulus check isn't enough to get it done). If that means studying, working out, enlightening yourself, legitimate hustling, making a plan to exit the rat race --- are you ready to put in that type of work. The work I used to put in gym, on the field not knowing if it meant I was even going to make the team, have a starting position, or succeed at life. You have to plant that seed early and work at it every single day.

I always joke the best class I ever took in college was Probability/Statistics. When you learn about decision trees, life becomes so much easier. When you learn how to apply that to risk management, hard decisions are not so tough. I spend most of my time assessing risk to help make sound decisions. When I got this question from a reader, I welcomed their trust in my thought process but I also challenged them to do a risk assessment. Because these assessments are life assessments --- calculations we all make everyday which turn into investments. And we much invest our time wisely as we only get one chance to be great.

Reader Question: "Good stuff man - I would love to hear your thoughts on Groupon's reverse stock split 1-20"


Company Description:
Groupon (NASDAQ: GRPN) is an experiences marketplace that brings people more ways to get the most out of their city or wherever they may be. By enabling real-time mobile commerce across local businesses, live events and travel destinations, Groupon helps people find and discover experiences––big and small, new and familiar––that make for a full, fun and rewarding life. Groupon helps local businesses grow and strengthen customer relationships––resulting in strong, vibrant communities. 

Groupon (GRPN) Risk Assessment 

I don't do risk assessments much on paper anymore but when I do I really enjoy the process. It reminds me of when I would hear people describe the habits of great rappers --- and they would say "You Know Biggie didn't write down any of his raps". A quick nod to the greatest rapper of all time, the Notorious BIG.
I guess risk assessments start with personal questions...do you work here, why risk assess it now, have you risk assessed it before, what's changed since then. So here goes my GRPN Risk Assessment:


Geopolitical (Country) Risk: GRPN is not being purchased by a foreign entity but I do think it's important to highlight this risk. While the USA is viewed as safe, I recall sparring with a colleague over whether US companies should consider geopolitical risk in their equation. The greatest country in the world has no risk I was told and I quickly reminded him about 2008 and the fact that if it was NOT for TARP and massive bailouts we would have seen the financial system implode. So quickly, I think that GRPN and every US company faces country risk as the divide in US wealth, health, and resource gap grows deeper. The erosion of the middle class IMO means the pie of strong local businesses GRPN is trying to grow and stregthen is shrinking. We haven't even talked about COVID-19 but shocks like this to the US system seem to be taking a huge toll on the economy (i.e., every time we have a crisis...it's NOW the greatest crisis since the Great Depression). 
Operational Risk: I looked back and realized I've written about GRPN roughly around 5 times. You can use the search bar to see my previous posts. What shocked me is how NOT much has changed in the 7-10 years since I last wrote about them. See here: https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/07/same-companiesnew-tricks-mcdonalds-best.html

In the 2013 post provided above, I wrote about the fact that I didn't have an account and the company hadn't won me over in needing to do so. Some of their tactics felt like tricks, gimmicks --- which weren't working. I look at their company description and I struggle with what it means to find experiences. Do they use AI and know I like sports, so they will find me tickets to the Superbowl at the best possible prices? Are they a travel company -- because Expedia, Travelocity, and even Airbnb talk about experiences? Clearly the operational execution isn't clear because I don't understand what they do. I thought they still provided discounted offers for merchants who wanted to increase foot traffic. A great idea I would say if you GRPN were to sell themselves to Uber or Lyft or Match. I like discounted restaurants and experiences when I'm dating, in a car, in a hotel or Airbnb. As a standalone company, I'm not sure it makes sense...as an extension of a big data company OR a swipe right dating company or a ride hailing company --- damn that would seems like a good fit.

Financial Risk
: The stock price says it all. Most companies only do a reverse stock split for one of 2 reasons: a) Unable to meet stock market listing requirements (i.e, the stock must be above $2 a share or you get the boot) or b) you want to "trick" investors by having a nice round number above $20 bucks so investors take you seriously. have I seen this yes -- take Citigroup during the 2008 financial crisis they did a reverse 10-1 stock split as the stock remained in the low single digits. Full disclosure, I've done no research but I would say the stock is saying something as it struggles to GROW organically through earnings.

Summary: At this point, I can not invest in GRPN unless it's purely a binary investment --- heads they put themselves up for sale, tails they go bust. Using poker language, you would be getting great odds IF you thought they were going to strategically look for a buyer. The economic toll of COVID-19 doesn't help because IF they were to have bought another company (Pinterest, Lyft, Yelp, Angie's List, Match) it might have gotten done with greedy bankers looking to finance everything just a year ago (when money was flowing). GRPN needs to fine tune the strategy because the value lies in knowing what I like and getting it to me quickly and possibly through another 2nd choice/off-brand competitor IF the discount is nice enough. Funny this was my rationale for GrubHub (GRUB) as well --- it's pure binary AND at least they delivery it too me. They were burning through CASH left and right and were NOT at risk in the future in a very competitive environment.
They are not a delivery company, direct travel and experience board, DIY board, or dating site --- so at this point the RISK vs REWARD is just not there.