Why are We Seeing High Inflation? -- The Block is Hot

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments) HOW TO SEARCH MY BLOG:	Get Updates to Your Email When I Create A New Post:

Inflation is Coming, No Inflation is Here:

I have never really looked back over time to understand when and why I post. I have a feeling it probably aligns over time with when our economy is at its highest and lowest. I've come to conclude that if I put my thoughts in writing and it has a historical time stamp on it, then eventually over time I can change minds (by looking at my past thoughts). I have molded myself over time to being a contrarian...and this means I appreciate going against the grain. I don't try to follow the crowd. The crowd is like a herd and in fact where and when I see a stampede I run away. 

I believe this is how I see risk, protect myself from negative risk, and then eventually use leverage to capitalize on risk. I take these life lessons and simply apply them to the stock market. I try to create habits and repeatable practices that can be applied to the game of life and carry these concepts over to the stock market game. Notice, I purposefully called them a game. There is an ebb and flow to everything in my opinion and you have to know how the game is played. I take time to find, learn, and observe this lifecycle in everything. Whether it's the game of life, the stock market game, sports, or our economy you will notice they all have cycles. Why this repeats OR cycles like a clock is unbeknownst to me, but I'd be a liar in telling you that understanding this concept has made me successful.

I clearly am a broken record because over the years, I've posted about how the economy roughly goes up and down in cycles. From observing the stock market, I can tell you LIKE CLOCKWORK, we roughly have periods of boom and busts that cycle OR repeat every 8-10 years. Read my blog and I think I've thoughtfully documented the following:

• 1987 - Savings and Loan Crisis | Black Monday Crisis - The stock market (via the Dow) was down 22% in one day
• 1995 - 2000 Dot Com Stock Market Soars - It gave us Amazon, Semiconductor Stocks
• 2002 - Dot Com Bubble Busts - Every business added a Dot Com and many did not survive
• 2004 - 2007 - The Hot Housing Markets Soars - Homes prices and buying skyrocket, and no interest loans become the norm
• 2008 - Financial Crisis - We lose Lehman Brothers and financial markets are in turmoil; I used this downturn to finally purchase my first house in 2010 thanks to the First Time Homebuyers credit led by the Obama administration; I also started buy stocks again when the Federal Reserve started lowering interest rates
• 2014 -18 - I wrote in 2014, that the Dow should take a bow. It reached all-time highs. I was starting to plan for a slowdown but then President Trump surprised me and many in 2016 by vocally telling the Federal Reserve NOT to raise interest rates (which slows the economy down) and he doubled down on cutting business taxes which created a Trump era boom after we already had a Obama era boom. Remember unemployment and minority unemployment were at record lows during the Obama presidency and then the set new record lows during the Trump presidency
• 2019 - COVID-19 Crisis led a to a health crisis, stock market meltdown and the entire globe was under siege
• 2020 - COVID Stimulus + Payment Protection Program + Child Tax Credits - because the Federal Reserve could not lower interest rates as they were at 0%, Congress stepped in literally made it rain. 

If you look at this historical backdrop that I documented, the Federal Reserve talked about raising interest rates in 2016 as the economy was doing great 8 years after the financial crisis. But when then President Trump vocally broke the separation of powers and vocally told the Federal Reserve in as many words to not raise interest rates...I believe it led to 2 things:

1) Our economy never really cooled down from 8 years of doing well and started to get hot. I remember in my 2017-18 search for my second home getting outbid and racing to find the next house. Only come to find out this would get even worse in 2020.

2) When COVID-19 hit and shocked our economy we could not lower interest rates. By creating all those stimulus programs and most being for businesses who did not have to pay them back, the US economy was flooded with cash. This is equivalent to pouring gasoline on an already white hot fire.

The gasoline lead to something similar to the Dot Com Bubble, only this time you might call it the Cryptocurrency and Housing rise. Don't believe just look at the headlines:

1. Gamestop, AMC Theatres, and Crypto ruled the day. haha Gamestop and AMC were virtually closed during the pandemic and they are skyrocketing more than our most valuable companies in the world. Crypto which is backed by nothing and can't be used to pay for toilet paper and groceries is now one of the most valuable currencies in the world? Notice what bubbles and inflation begins to do. It makes the unreal -- real, the unfathomable -- possible, the unrationale -- rational. 
2. The 10 richest persons in the world are worth more than 40% of the bottom 40% of the world, which is roughly 3.1 Billion people. 
3. 88 bids were made on one home; 25% of homes in the US were bought by corporations

Pouring gasoline on a white-hot economy did not cause these strange investment scenarios or market inequities...it exacerbated and amplified them. We are now at a point where the only tool we have to slow things down is the Federal Reserve. They pour water on the fire by raising interest rates and this doesn't cause slow burn rather a cold shock. For the last 5 weeks the markets have dropped sharply, convulsing their way down. Interest rates have jumped from 3% to 5%. So I started to dip my toes back into the real estate market to see if I could take advantage of the situation. Nope, the open house I went to was visited by other and I was greeted by the agent telling me this house was already under contract. This tells me the market is still to hot. To change habits, the Federal Reserve will continue to hike rates until it makes you feel sick. 

Crypto hit all-time highs of $60K and now its below $30K

ROKU was at $400 at one point, now decimated to $below $100

 The goal is to raise rates to stop your buying of homes, stocks, crypto which is fueling inflation. 

This is why I moved my retirement funds to inflation - protected investments last year in anticipation. This is also why I'm disappointed in myself when I didn't sell Spotify and ROKU at their highs. I saw it coming and didn't do enough. These stocks have been decimated and are down big time. The funniest is the Federal Reserve told you this is exactly what they wanted to do.

The Stock Market is Falling - Will I Be Gone 'til November??

Every time I make a run

Girl, you turn around and cry

I ask myself why, oh why

See, you must understand, I can't work a 9 to 5

So I'll be gone 'til November

Said I'll be gone 'til November, I'll be gone 'til November

Yo, tell my girl, yo, I'll be gone 'til November

I'll be gone 'til November, I'll be gone 'til November

Yo, tell my girl, yo, I'll be gone 'til November

January, February, March, April, May

I see you cryin', but girl, I can't stay

I'll be gone 'til November, I'll be gone 'til November

And give a kiss to my mother

Lyrics by Wyclef Jean

Gone 'til November

Many investors are finally learning that stock markets do not go straight up. I've blogged that when the market was at its hottest, I was getting calls and text messages all day. Everyone was right and every stock they bought went straight up. I just hope that you took some of those profits off the table. Remember, we are building wealth and for some of us generational wealth for the first time and our goal is not to gamble. I learned the hard way many years ago that big gains should be pocketed or banked when you can and I use a crude but simple formula for selling some shares. If I've purchased a stock and it's gone up well, what's wrong with taking my initial investment OUT, then taking another 20% out, and finally letting the rest ride. Example:

Investment: $10,000

Say this Investment Goes up to 30% and you have $13,000 in your account

Sell $12,000 ($10K Initial Investment and $2K Profit Banked)

$1,000 - Let it Ride

I appreciate the calls when you get it right but I also want to hear about how you stacked your chips at the top. 

How did this work out for me? Well, I had help last year and a little bit of luck this year. Some of my largest positions were bought out. Again, a stock getting bought out is like a sports player getting a maximum salary offer from their team or being traded in free agency for a higher salary! So for me, I was luckily able to bank most of my gains. I somewhat listened to my own book because if you recall from a recent article, I showed some discipline and in October 2021 I moved 75% of my retirement account into safety. A few months ago, I moved the remaining 25% to safety as well. I know you want to know exactly what I moved them into. Well I surprisingly found out I have an Inflation Protection investment in my retirement account. If you're wondering whether this helped or hurt, it turns out that from the highs of Q3 2021, my stock portfolio was down roughly 10%...not great but less than what the market fell. That is about as much as I can ask for. In my personal portfolio, I learned that it was built in a barbell fashion and this was great when I wanted to take risk and not so great when the market turned down. I basically had half of my portfolio in what you may call value based safer stocks and roughly the other half were in the high flyer technology stocks.

Positive Positions:

Tegna - is being bought out so even while the market is down this position has not moved materially and should not until the acquisition is made in Q2 2022. I've actually played the ARBITRAGE and added to this position in a down market. This means I buy the stock as there is still a difference between the current price and the acquisition price. I monitor this stock closely but my last update was 87% of the shareholders just approved the merger so I think investment which I own in my personal and retirement account has a high likelihood of closing. 

Negative Positions:

ROKU - I'm glad I traded options against Roku because it was a very hot high flyer and as it went higher I made income trading against my position. Now as the market has dropped, that income trading is all I have to show for it, because Roku has fallen big time. 

Spotify - Spotify has fallen as well and the losses have been big.

When times get tough, I begin to move back to the basics. I look for trends that should work during these times and in my riskier personal portfolio this is where I consider buying stocks. Sometimes I simply do nothing at all. But here is what I'm doing:

1) Watching Warren Buffett - When the market is falling and people are scared, he has been cautious and now entering back in. But what is he buying or adding too, see this summary below:

a) I find it interesting; he is jumping into Paramount a stock I recently indicated had jumped on my radar because it was trading at a discount: Feb 2022 - Paramount Post

b) My Breakdown of Warren's Q1 Buys / Additions:

2) I am trading aggressively and trying to actively get out of any stocks that will not make up a core part of my portfolio. 

3) I've been more active than I've been in a long time. I've been trading:

Oil: Occidental Petroleum, Devon Energy

Arbitrage Plays: Twitter

Stocks that Benefit from Hard Times: Treehouse (maker of store brand products)

I copied Buffett and targeted Oil plays and want to build larger positions here as a hedge and I see he copied me by focusing on Arbitrage plays. I continue to buy Tegna until they get bought out and even purchased Twitter which hope Elon Musk will stop his shenanigans and agree to the original buyout of roughly $54. But is looking at Activision Blizzard, the video game maker, because he too is trying to identify high probability trades that will likely get bought out. I don't want high risk trades at this point and this could be why we both are looking at Arb plays. VMware may be one here shortly as Broadcom has been supposedly slidin' into it's DM and there are a few others bubbling out there.

I've spent way too much time on this post and have to get back at it, but a quick brain dump of what I'm thinking at the moment. Enjoy, trade safely, and #getthebag

Who's Watching Euphoria - I'm Seeing a Stock Market in Withdrawal

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments) HOW TO SEARCH MY BLOG:	Get Updates to Your Email When I Create A New Post:

Also Coming Soon - a series on #HowtoInvest. People have been reaching especially after the spikes in Gamestop, AMC, and other stock to learn the basics. I self-taught myself how to invest beginning at the age of roughly 18 and have never stopped. To be a good investor and ensure you are not gambling (speculating), I'll cover (hardest parts of investing in RED):

Budgeting 101 - How to Fund Ur Investments?

Why Stocks as an Investment?

What is Ur Investment Profile + Personality?

How to Pick Stocks?

When to Buy Stocks?

How to Enter My Trade?

How Many Stocks Should I Own?

When to Sell Stocks?

Am I Speculating (Gambling)?

Stock "Euphoria" In Withdrawal

Did you see that episode of Euphoria? While I'm watching the show, I'm really watching the stock market euphoria evaporate. I want to be completely transparent that if your portfolio is NOT down and you are not feeling any pain then you are lying or you need to win stock investing award. One of my first rules is being transparent and my portfolio is down and guess what that is a normal part of the stock market. I'd like to take some credit that I've been calling for the market to top out for a while now. But the reality is even though I was right, no human being will ever get the exact day correct, so my portfolio is getting punished just like everyone else's. Like Rue Bennett on the show "Eurphoria" is in withdrawal, this market is shaking...we call it market volatility. 

You may wonder what I'm doing in response. The simple answer is I've moved out of stocks in my retirement portfolio. You can call cap (or my bluff) but I too was surprised that I made the decision to move one quarter of my retirement portfolio in October of 2021 to safety. I chose the PIMCO Inflation Protected Bond Fund. One quarter did not stop my portfolio from declining but what it did mean that I declined less than the what the market did and I calculated my retirement account was down from it's peak by roughly 10%. I like to periodically review my portfolio's quarterly and just logged in last month. The next thing I did was analyze the current situation. I think the economy is doing well despite what you see on the news. It's pretty hot and INFLATION is up big time. How do I know, because I want to buy a 3rd property and I no likey any of the prices I'm seeing. The only price I like is the inflated value I see on the properties I own. Funny how that works ehh. 

Why is this happening? Well, the Federal Reserve is committed to taming inflation and the only way to do this is to slow demand. Take your Starbucks coffee shop, if they keep selling out of everything the store will eventually conclude they may need to raise prices because the demand is so hot. A good business operation will raise prices until the demand slows down to something manageable. That is EXACTLY what the Federal Reserve is doing at the moment. They are raising interest rates and that is making mortgage rates and the cost of obtaining cash harder to come by. The goal is to SLOW down the economy as everyone is flush from stimulus and spending like crazy now that the think COVID is over. If you need a visual, think about Rue as she was going through withdrawal, it's NOT a pretty picture. So guess what, I'm taking my ball and going home. In my retirement account I put all of my cash into inflation protected investments for the mean time. I like to play games I can win. My personal stock investing account is still in stocks and it's not pretty. I still have a lot to learn about how to better hedge my investments as some of my high fliers came down to reality. ROKU, SPOTIFY, and UBER really don't want me to retire even earlier. Those #$#$#!!

I'll write more about what I'm doing in my personal stock account to try to reduce the amount of risk and volatility. My cybersecurity business is holding up well so I'm fully investing my time there but I'll keep you guys posted on how to continue investing in stocks for a brighter future.