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Monday, May 11, 2020

ALLERGAN (AGN) and Abbvie (ABBV) - Hookup Alert

"Called up the homies and I'm askin' y'all / Which park, are y'all playin' basketball? /Get me on the court and I'm trouble / Last week messed around and got a triple double / Freaking brothers every way like M.J. / I can't believe, today was a good day

~ Ice Cube (Today Was A Good Day)

Like Cube said today was a good day. Despite being busy helping corporations manage their business risks I still wake up and practice. For me, this includes catching a 3 hour business show every morning before I start my work day. I am not an early riser anymore -- no more commutes on the Chicago Metra train or taking the bus downtown to work. Instead I sleep in, record the show, and try to eventually catch up while it's in progress. 📺 It reminds me of when I had to wake up at be at the gym for 6AM practices for basketball. I wanted to have an Allen Iverson --- PRACTICE --- moment but hustle means hard work. And that work ethic has taken me a long way.

While the morning updates scroll by, I log on to my investment account to check on my team.  Yes every sport has a name for this group: roster, squad, farm team, recruits, etc. So just like a coach, I watch film, recruit players, give them try-outs and eventually put them into the game. My goal is to field the Dream Team of investment companies. I do this by being data-driven but like any human I too can get caught up in the young flashy new player (Zion Williamson). Sometimes I tend to want to give the veteran player a longer leash than sometimes is deserved. I like proven winners like LeBron James and Kevin Durant but the trick is to find them as early as possible and hold onto them into the prime of their careers. While this sounds easy, remember:

  • There will always be top picks that go bust
  • Even the greatest players get traded or play past their prime
  • Players make mistakes and get into trouble 
  • Rarely do many greats play for one team and exit at the top of their game
I wanted to highlight Allergan (AGN) -- I would drop them in the bucket of a young flashy player. I need to look back to determine when I first bought them but I did see that 2014 is my first post about AGN. Then towards the end of 2014, you'll see I had to part ways with Allergan because they received multiple trade offers. If you remember LeBron's "The Decision", well Allergan was being courted by multiple companies:

Valeant - had a bid for $54 Billion for my player AGN
Actavis - trumped Valeant's offer with a $66 Billion takeover bid of AGN

The deal meant that I had to trade my player but I received cash compensation and even a few shares in the new company.

So like a good coach, I continued to watch Allegan (the acquiring company, Actavis, actually renamed their company to Allergan) over the following years. The maker of the popular Botox treatment stumbled for a few of those years. Somewhat nostalgic, I flashed back to those days of watching Allergan's rise and decided to give sign them to my roster for a much lower deal than before. They had lost a step but once again they showed there was still some value there. My range was between $125 and $140 a share, Allergan soon had teams looking for a trade again. Maybe they were nostalgic, saw value, or wanted to take advantages of those flashes of brilliance.  Along comes a company called Abbvie -- they decided to pay $63 Billion to acquire Allergan and that equates to roughly about $188 a share.

So as I close, I wanted to thank Allergan the two-time world champ on my team. Those long nights of research and recruiting paid off. And hopefully this serves as an example that you two can use everyday skills to invest --- just like I do. 

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