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Tuesday, June 05, 2007

June week 1 - Stock and Lock Picks

ADPT – Adaptec; Look for private equity firm Steel Partners to continue to apply the vice grip here and try to take over this company and put new management in place. Good long term potential with Steel putting there money muscle behind them, but at $4 range…should see some quick upside. Already a nice move to the upside from the 3.50 range.
Buy In Target 4.05-4.07 and anything lower.

STXX.OB – South Texas Oil Company; Significant oil well find should lead to upside in earnings revisions and price appreciation. This well is the second recent find with the potential for more to be found.
Buy In Target – 9.14 and up

CNTF - China Techfaith; This mobile device company was a great tip from my boy who has been following this stock. It has recently hit a 52wk low and should be gain from recent job cuts and what is going to be a the largest mobile and broadband market in the world....China. Buy on any bounce off of the $6 dollar mark.
Buy In Target - I love the 52 wk low of $5.50 but a more reasonable price may be $5.75

MMS - Maximus; I apologize for not posting this one but we jumped on this one around $30 dollar range. Now up almost 40%, I have thought about pulling out. However, two new contracts (state of TX and Chicago school systems) have given MMS positive earning revisions for the next quarter and year...blowing the numbers out of the water. Look for this to continue to climb as it has received a recent upgrade and a strong buy from Zacks.com "Profit from the Pros" list of Momentum stocks. Hard to pick an entry point with this rising consistently. But any pullback into the $42 range may be a good entry point.

CLCT - Collectors Universe; I love the name and the industry. A strong dividend play here and a slightly slower mover compared to our other stocks (MMS & MOBE, SBH). However, CLCT is receiving consistent attention for private equity to turn ship around. We are up 5% from the intial $13.13 mark and I still think this has room to go. With recent activity it may be hard, but I would wait for a slight pullback and I like this stock at the $13.80 range.

I will come up with some rating system but a good short term play is STXX.OB. With not as much volume as we would like a limit buy may be good here.



I am going away from the email format. This should give me a little more consistency to my post. Also here were the picks from the last quarter that netted us two big winners (This was a collection of emails forwarded, most with dates, and the earliest email listed at the bottom):

Comments for 12/1/06:

I apologize again, for the third update within a month
but we are getting some great action from the stocks
we've recommended so far. Both MOBE & SBH are up
roughly 10% today.

MOBE - Again a volatile stock and you saw people
taking profit, b/c notice for no apparent reason it
dipped yesterday sharply. It you were paying attention
their were additional buying opportunities presented
yesterday...the stock dipped below 3.30 and could have
been bought at a low of 3.21. The rise today can be
attributed to great news, we've got friends in high
places. Yesterday @ 3.21, a hedge fund bought another
round of shares which has pushed the prices up and
should create a nice floor for the stock price (They
have made 10 purchases in this stock within the last
month over 15 within the last two months{See Yahoo,
ticker: MOBE, insider transactions). And they have
cash to burn...remember the hedge fund article I sent
you. MOBE hit a high of 3.70 today which is a good
sign. I don't make predictions but I will recommend
taking profit at $4 a share and maybe leaving a few
shares to see what this stock does.
A few ppl let me know they bought the stock, I do not
recommend buying this stock at this point. I can't
guarantee you that 3.50 is a good entry point...but I
do personally think it will continue to rise.

SBH - Obviously the growth engine of former Alberto
Culver. Hence, the reason for a spinoff to fully
recognize the true value of a subsidiary. SBH is up
over 8% today. This stock could have been snapped up
by buying ACV before the spinoff (see the previous
emails) or by buying SBH the next day after the
spinoff for the opening value which was 7.30. If the
stock is up to $10, I'll let you calcuate the gains so
far. I contemplated buying mores shares this week but
was a little worried about the quick rise, when I
guess I was wrong, b/c the stock just got listed as an
"Outperform" by Bear Sterns and coverage was also
picked up by Oppenheimer, which could be considered
unusual for a small stock to track this early by to
large investment firms. I definitely don't recommend
buying more at this point because this is up almost
$50% in two weeks. I would think a better range is
back around $8 dollars.

Good luck and enjoy the weekend. If you have any
interesting stocks you've been following forward them
on.

---------------------------------------------


--- JG wrote:

> Date: Tue, 21 Nov 2006 09:19:40 -0800 (PST)
> From: JG
> Subject: Fwd: Portfolio Update
> To: xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
> Note: forwarded message attached.
>
> Well fellas, we got the momentum action
> that needed. Take a look at MOBE when you get
> a chance. The stock is definitely on the move
> again with strong momentum today. I usually
> don't like this many updates or even promote
> watching a stock this often,but with the
> volatility that you see here you may want to
> begin setting your price points for a quick
> exit if the volatility causes the stock
> down quickly.
>
> Take a quick walk with me and I mean quick,
> b/c if you remember my earlier email (NOV 14) to the
>
> group I recommended MOBE at roughly $3 a share
> as an entry point. I bought then and was able
> to buy more shares at $2.85. The transaction
> volume has been riding high since then and the price
> of the stock has increased to a high today of $3.60
> and is now settling in at about $3.38. If we
> see more action to the $3.60 range consinder
> taking profits and holding onto the rest for
> hopefully what Peter Lynch calls the ten baggers
> the beautiful 10 fold return. (We all can dream)
> ---------------------------------------------
> And ACV did exactly what we needed it to do. At
> remember at the price of $49 ACV decided to issue:
>
> - special cash dividend of $25
> - Give us new shares of ACV @ 17
> - Give us new shares of SBH @ 7
> add these up and you get = $49 dollars
> So basically they gave us free cash and our
> position never change. What is the current
> price of the stock
> ACV = 21.27
> SBH = 8.82
> Cash Dividend = 25
> Total = $55.09 - $49 we bought in at give us $6
> profit
> per dollar
> My math says your portfolio is already up roughly
> $6 dollars for every dollar you invested.
>
> Enjoy and I included the previous email I sent last
> week.
>
> jg
--------------------------------------------------
> From: JG
> Subject: Portfolio Update
> To: xxxxxxxxxxxx
>
> Keep your eyes peeled for the following stocks that
> I
> am digging.
>
> ACV - Alberto Culver, they are spinning off their
> Sally's Beauty division, issuing special $25
> dividend
> and shareholders get shares in both new companies.
> Historically both stocks rise after a spinoff.
> Current Ticker: ACV
> Future Tickers
> Alberto Culver (ACV)
> Sally Beauty Hldgs (SBH)
>
> This trade needs to be done b/f 11/16 which it
> appears
> will be the ex dividend date. If not you will have
> to
> buy share of the new company separately which isn't
> bad either.
>
> Also MOBE - Mobility Electronics. They make the I-Go
> adapter for all of your electronic gadgets that need
> to be charged.
>
> I like these and have added positions.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey, I am ya boy in Cali's boy. What do you think about QCOM, T, APPL? Is it too late to jump on the wagon. For APPL and T, should I wait until Sept or well after next earnings report and the IPhone?

The Oracle of Hyde Park said...

Check out my new post on you're stocks in question.