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Saturday, August 31, 2024

AfroBeats - If Artists Were Like Stocks | Momentum Stock: Core Scientific, Spotify, Roblox

 

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AfroBeats - Artists Compared to Stocks

I cannot tell you how proud I am of the growth of African music. I have grown up all my life listening to African music and it's amazing to see the dancefloor erupt when some of our biggest African artists and songs come on at a party. Just like when Dre and Snoop, Nas, Jay, Biggie, Mary J Blige, Mariah Carey, or Whitney Houston are played -- the room is electric. Now the world gets to experience what we've been dancing and shaking to all of our lives. The global explosion of African music across the world has been amazing and I'm telling you it's here to stay. I listen to songs in different languages, slangs, and styles and one thing is universal our music makes you want to dance. And yes, I simply call it African music -- what is this AfroBeats ting?

Well, I wanted to revisit my series that helps you learn how to invest by comparing everyday things to stocks. I always say you have to start by determining what type of investor you are as that usually dictates the types of stocks you like to trade. If you had $100,000 dollars to invest, how would you invest in your favorite African artists:

Momentum Artists: Tyla | Rema | Lojay

I like to say that momentum stocks or artists are investments in something that's buzzing. Like the initial launch of Tesla, the only people that were checking for electric vehicles were EV die-hard fans. No one, I mean no one else was interested in electric cars or let alone wanting to pre-order the damn thing. Then you saw a Tesla on the road OR you heard these hits songs in the last year, and you knew they were undeniably hit songs:

Artist: Tyla ~ Hit Song: Water [Country: South Africa]
Artist: Rema ~ Hit Song: Calm Down [Country: Nigeria]
Artist: Lojay ~ Hit Song: MonaLisa [Country: Nigeria]

Tyla and Water were arguably the biggest songs in the world in the last year. It seemed like we couldn't get enough of Tyla, Ampiano and the buzziness of "Water". She followed up with a remix with none other than Travis Scott and then came for music nerds like me when she teamed up with 2 of my favorites: Skillibeng and Gunna on "Jump". 

Rema - I was bumping "Calm Down" for a minute and the song is infectious. While playing at a backyard party, I had a guest say what is this song -- I like it. The song was so big it has 2 versions, the original which is my favorite and the remix with Selena Gomez. The funny thing is I think some fans think it's Selena's song because of the way the remix was pushed out. Don't believe me, do a search for calm down and strangely you see Selena Gomez as if it's her damn song. Collectively the 2 versions on YouTube Video are easily over 1.5 billion video views.

Lojay & Sarz - Baby corner, corner waka-waka! Yes, for those of you that don't know Creole as we call it or Pidgin in other African regions -- Lojay and Sarz are telling their baby girl to walk over the corner the rest is a sultry mix of indulging in her coca or chocolate body. The song is so big, I share it and people say I've heard and like that song but don't know what they are saying. The song was sooo big that Chris Brown jumped on the remix and the buzz is still going.

Momentum Stocks

Core Scientific (CORZ) - Per their own website "Core Scientific is one of the largest bitcoin miners and hosting solutions providers for bitcoin mining in North America." I read the company recently came out of bankruptcy in January 2024. I started sniffing around when a partner of CORZ, CoreWeave made two attempts to purchase the company. They have to have some knowledge of the operations as they signed a big AI deal in June of 2024 for CORZ hosting services, I believe. While that deal was announced, they then went for the hook up and said we'd love to buy you out. Player move but looks like they are low-balling the offer. It was similar to an African engagement I recently witnessed -- one man representing the bride-to-be's family said, "The envelope looks a little bit light...please go back". I just learned the directors of CORZ are buying the stock and that is promising for a small company with rising momentum. Are they a one hit wonder or can they survive.

Spotify (SPOT) - I believe I've written about Spotify recently and boy are they on a surge. I was too early and this artist or should I say stock is now finally stringing together a 2nd and 3rd hit song. I believe in 2021 I bought around the $260 range and saw it rise and then drop shortly after that all the way into the 70s in late 2022. I liked the first song -- as they essentially a part of a cartel. I actually get most of my music from YouTube Video and only recently Music, but the big dog is Spotify and Tidal is a small fry. Sorry real music artists, streaming is here to stay -- I just wonder if Spotify can increase the price, stave off a mutiny from artists and reign supreme. I'm now in the Green and trading actively against Spotify because the option premiums are very attractive like that coca body.

Roblox (RBLX) - Is the like the new stock on the block that I nailed just right but got nervous about when the next hit song was coming out. I listened to a good friend tell me ALL the kids play on a platform called Roblox. I have no clue what this platform is but I looked into the stock and it had a rough time after creating a buzz. Sound familiar touring artists. Like a greedy music label, I saw talent when the stock stumbled to the $25 range. I owned it for much of the last months or so. It ran up on a hit song to the 40s I got nervous a 2nd hit song wasn't coming right away and sold as they came down into the 30s. Well that was a mistake because the second song is doing nicely and the stock is back at the $43 range. I am watching this one soooo closely as I want to get back in. Maybe I'll wait to see if they have a good TMZ like scandal which knocks the stock down, pick some shares up, and then wait for the 2nd album to cause the stock to move higher again.

Disclosures: I own Core Scientific and Spotify; I owned Roblox within the last year and got out too early. Also, I'm not typically a momentum stock trader. Note from my writings -- I like Roblox after they stumbled, Core Scientific only after a label came calling, and Spotify for the lane it is in. Like Shaboozey, an African boy (Nigerian) who had to genius idea of taking a classic one hit wonder song "Tipsy" (Artist: J-Kwon) and putting a country twist on it is an artist in his own lane. The world is craving for a unique sound and not many artists can fill that void yet. He's got a lot of money to make before other artists start attempting to fuse hip-hop and country.

Next Up Growth Stocks

Tuesday, August 06, 2024

We Be Huntin' Series - What is the Catalyst for the Catalent Inc (NYSE: CTLT) Trade

 

Hunting in Packs - Paul Singer -- Catalent (CTLT)

Investing is a lot like fishing or poker -- it takes patience and discipline. I've found that some of my best trades have come about because I did my research early, had conviction, and then entered the terms of my trade in hopes it would be filled when the market met my expectations -- NOT the other way.

My Mansa Musa network often helps to shape my thinking and when we execute trades together or hunt -- we often make money together in business, real estate, investing, etc. When I combine all these concepts or mentalities into one you get the Mansa Musa Mentality. Arguably the richest person in history, Mansa Musa, ruled over a large empire and put cities like Timbuktu on the map as they were known for their cities and libraries.

This posts is an example of how the #MansaMusaMentality work and how I use my extended network to invest. Almost like a case study, I'll highlight how these contacts guide me on investments such as buying real estate, stocks, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, etc. And I want to foster a community culture, so I'll show you how I learn from them and maybe in the future we can crowdsource or here we call it #tribesource investment ideas for the future.

"Detail" - A Breakdown of my Catalent (CTLT) Investment

Year: 2023
Throwback Link:  n/a

Research Timetable: July 2023

Research Details:

I read a really good article about Paul Singer, an investor, who is in my Mansa Musa network. Don't believe me just look him up in this 2021 article: URBANOMICS: Mansa Musa Mentality - Building Your Investment Empire

Paul Singer is a hunter, or should I say investor that comes across as shrewd and non-compromising. I started reading articles last year about how he was setting his sights on Catalent. They've had of issues going on:

  • Declining business after the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Senior Management leaving the company
  • FDA notice about cleanliness issues at a facility (a notice or citation is when the regulators find a problem and in healthcare this is bad)
  • Left at the Alter - Snubbed by the company Danaher, there was hook up here
  • Delayed earnings reports (think about getting your annual checkup, but not wanting to tell anyone)
  • Down 50% of their value in since 2022; down 65+% since 2021

I don't rock with Paul on a number of social issues but when he invests in companies to agitate and change things -- good things usually happen.

  • Catalent caved and gave Paul's investment firm four board positions,
  • Created a strategic review committee, which usually means they wanna hook up with someone (swipe right)
  • They are the primary manufacturer of Novo Nordisk's weight loss drug, Wegovy, and could be a takeover target as companies want to consistent pipeline to deliver these blockbuster drugs

Huntin' In Packs Alert: In August 2023, I decided it was worth riding shotgun with Paul on this one.

The Setup:

Aug 2023: $40 

Feb 2024: 2 Trades at the following prices:

  • $60
  • $56.2691

How is it Performing: Well in February 2024, Novo Nordisk's holding company made an announcement they want to hook up with Catalent at a range of $16 Billion dollar value. So, I went shopping again and you can see the prices above.

All was well until April 2024 when the Federal Trade Commission and Novo Nordisk discussed initial hook up plans with Catalent. Novo pulled their filing to the FTC and subsequently refiled. Then in May 2024, the Federal Trade Commission requested more information on Novo Nordisk hook up plans, shortly after an application was filed.

I'm exhausted watching this soap opera but the stock has been steadily climbing from the low $50s and is now approaching $60. They buyout price would be around $65 if all goes well. I wish I would have done more research and identified how entangled Catalent was with other providers like Eli Lilly but at the end of the day, Lilly could have swiped right and tried to hook up with this company too. We'll see if CTLT is too important to be bought out when the FTC decides, so stay tuned. Right now, I'm up only slightly but it will be a nice win, in a short period of time if this hook up makes it to the alter.

Sunday, August 04, 2024

We Be Huntin' - A Look Back at My El Pollo Loco Trade (NASDAQ: LOCO)



Hunting in Packs - Sam Biglari -- El Pollo Loco (LOCO)

Investing is a lot like fishing or poker -- it takes patience and discipline. I've found that some of my best trades have come about because I did my research early, had conviction, and then entered the terms of my trade in hopes it would be filled when the market met my expectations -- NOT the other way.

My Mansa Musa network often helps to shape my thinking and when we execute trades together or hunt -- we often make money together in business, real estate, investing, etc. When I combine all these concepts or mentalities into one you get the Mansa Musa Mentality. Arguably the richest person in history, Mansa Musa, ruled over a large empire and put cities like Timbuktu on the map as they were known for their cities and libraries.

This posts is an example of how the #MansaMusaMentality work and how I use my extended network to invest. Almost like a case study, I'll highlight how these contacts guide me on investments such as buying real estate, stocks, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, etc. And I want to foster a community culture, so I'll show you how I learn from them and maybe in the future we can crowdsource or here we call it #tribesource investment ideas for the future.

"Detail" - A Breakdown of my El Pollo Loco (LOCO) Investment

Year: 2023
Throwback Link: Link Back to El Pollo Loco 

Research Timetable: August 2023

Research Details:

I read a really good article about Sam Biglari, an investor, who is in my Mansa Musa network. He has been a major investor and had a significant impact over Steak 'n Shake. Now it's time to show my age. When I was growing up Steak 'n Shake was a cool place to take a date. It reigned supreme as a late-night spot with low expectations. This was two decades ago, but I felt like it had commonality with grease -- greasy meal with greasy floors. You had to walk carefully but as a youth it was all good because you and your date were only there for the "shakes". The shake never failed you. Fast forward, one of my employees was telling me they eat occasionally at Steak 'n Shake and even called it clean. My interest perked up because I had over the decades disowned the fast-food shop for exactly the opposite reasons. I got more intel and recently tried it with my young kids. In fact, it was clean, they now had a drive-thru, and the food was hot which is a step up from the off-the-assembly lines fast food chains.

The article I read back in August detailed how Sam made investments into the company years back which was in a dire situation. They turned a profit back in 2021 and shrewdly closed about 90 locations. Adding drive-thru gives them an opportunity for more volume as they become of a fast-food restaurant and reduces costs from less dining in.

Huntin' In Packs Alert: Sam's picked up a large stake in another restaurant chain El Pollo Loco. By buying an ownership stake around 9% of the entire restaurant chain ($33 million dollars) I decided it was worth riding shotgun with my guy Sam.

The Setup: Check the stock chart above back in August 2023. The stock was trading around $11 dollars a share. Now me, I remember was candy bars were .50c so I like value. If I don't see Reese's Cups selling for this level -- I pass. Same with my trades, I like to build a margin in by betting on the lower side of where a stock has been trading. I did my research (usually by analyzing the stock's movement in the last year) and set a price I'd like to get in around $8-9 dollars a share. I put the trade in my account in August and it hit in November. The stock dipped to $8.60 range and my trade hit!

Don't Believe Me Just Watch - This is what I said literally back in August:

Call me crazy, or should I say LOCO, but let's see how our trade does. I like LOCO around the $8 level and for I'll enjoy hunting with Sam.

#HuntinPacks - designates investments I made alongside someone in my network
#MansaMusaMentality