2009...The simple approach to investing this year

As we bring in the New Year, I have learned how important it is to continually look into the future. 2008 was the year that we all would love to forget even happened from a stock perspective. Oddly enough, most of us would only like to forget the last quarter of the year as my portfolio didn't start its downward spiral until September/October. It was then my blogging activity picked up with a frantic pace and I was constantly tuned into the markets hourly. I can safely say in my brief investing life that I have never been a part of a market where new and relevant information was breaking rapidly throughout the day. I took a drastic approach and recommended that everyone take a defensive approach in their portfolio because I honestly felt the news and the data was taking the market in a negative direction. Looking back this may have been a solid decision and the leading indicators were: 1. The rules were been changed daily which caused volatility and panic; 2. Interpreting market data was critical 3. Some of the largest money managers tipped us off by reallocating their portfolio

Now as we look into 2009 what should we expect. Well the New Year has gotten off to a great start as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has just topped the 9000 mark, levels we haven't seen in awhile. Ironically, following Dec 16 where the Dow Jones again approached 9000 the next 5 five market sessions were downward days and bottomed at around 8400. I have repeatedly mentioned that I believe market history has given us a important level that may market a psychological bottom. I will have to go back and check to see how consistent the numbers that I have noted match with what some experts are now calling the market bottom on November 20th!

So what I am looking to do is gradually get back into the market. Taking the information we discussed above about where the bottom may be, I have recognized that 8400 is going to continue to be an important area where I want to get back into the market. I will be mainly shifting my RETIREMENT portfolio when these target levels are reached. As far as my investment portfolio I think people still need to take a defensive approach. As money has been and will be printed to get us out of this difficult economic time, I don't think things are improving on Main Street. And my gauge is the everyday person that you run into on the street. Simply polling my friends: less and less of them were actually going out and buying expensive party packages this year.

So I still believe shorting the financials whenever they run up, more exposure to bonds (corporate and high yield), less exposure to treasury bill (inflation may start creeping up), and buying oil, gas, and gold.

Stock Tracker Update: I really want the stock tracker to eventually do one of 2 things: 1. Reflect my actual portfolio or 2. Reflect the future stocks I'd like to buy/short... because currently it does neither!