The Proof is in the Pudding

Now if anything else was inside my pudding I would be afraid, very afraid. Its almost sounds like something Bill Cosby would have mentioned in one of his Jello Pudding Pops commercials. This annoying phrase was hammered into my head when I first started my career. And I think this catch phrase is used when people want to emphasize focusing on just the facts (i.e., you can’t confuse chocolate pudding with vanilla). So in the last three months the proof is in the our recent investment decisions.

Here is a summary of some of the decisions that we’ve made recently:

Positions with positive returns:

Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) – Up roughly 18% in 3 months
Burlington Northern Sante Fe (NYSE: BNI) Up roughly 12% in 3 months
Medcath (NYSE: MDTH) – Up roughly 7% in less than 1 month
Online Resources (Nasdaq: ORCC) Up roughly 13% about 1 month
Zhone Technologies (Nasdaq: ZHNE) Up roughly 11% in less than 1 month

Positions with a flatline or negative return:

Adaptec (Nasdaq: ADPT) – Down less than 1% in around 3 months; since early recommendations I am down 4% in more than 6 months

Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD) I will give a few scenarios for this stock b/c you would have likely experienced one of these situations (See my social picks tracker to the right to verify these percentages)
- If you’ve been along for the ride since the beginning of my RAD recommendations and sold your entire position based upon my November 21st posting (http://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2007/11/drink-and-my-2-step.html) you are down roughly 16%
- If you’ve been along for the ride since the beginning of my RAD recommendations and reduced your RAD position based upon my November 21st posting (http://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2007/11/drink-and-my-2-step.html), the portion you still own is down roughly 7%
- If you got lucky and only started following RAD since my October 26th posting (http://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2007/10/it-must-be-butter.html), you are actually up roughly 2%

Here is my note on RAD, so that I continue my ways of completely disclosing the truth. Some people may feel that it is unfair to list multiple outcomes of how things would have turned out if you actually owned RAD’s stock, but I have to do this because everyone’s decisions to BUY, SELL, or DOLLAR COST AVERAGE DOWN may not be consistent with when I post for my readers to take those actions. If you would consistently followed my postings you would have bought RAD at least twice:
- Initial BUY on October 6th and a Dollar Cost Average Down BUY on October 26th

To further complicate things I gave 2 recommendations on my November 21 to ‘Outright Sell” all your position or “Reduce Sell” some of your position in RAD. How you pay attention to my recommendations based upon your situation would have given you one of the three outcomes listed aboved.

My Actions: I chose to sell outright ALL my positions of RAD on November 21st for a 16% loss. This was because I had made the mistake of having to large of a position in the stock and it was negatively affecting my portfolio. I felt that I could better use that capital on my next 2 picks (MDTH & ZHNE) and I was right. If I didn’t have two new picks that I could have earned a better return on, I would have just reduced my position and I would experiencing the middle outcome of only a 7% decline so far. Notice that’s why I did not sell my RAD positions in my tracker portfolio (Socialpicks) located on the right side of my blog, because I still believe in the stock and its ability to still give readers a strong return.

Soon to come here @ URBANOMICS
I will outline how to trade based on my postings in case this has ever been a concern of yours. (This could be the case because Jim Cramer wrote a book for his viewers on how to trade based on his shows)
Finally I will highlight this year’s performance and the good, bad, and downright horrible decisions we made this year.