All I could do was smile as I filled up my SUV this weekend. Somehow when I was purchasing this truck late last year I was a part of the majority of you all out there that was saying that prices can't keep rising forever. I am not a nostalgic person but I was smiling because I will be able to tell my kids one day that I filled up one tank of gas for $70. But then I will tell my kids that dad ain't no dummy and I might as well "make my pain my gain".
That's means that you think about buying what has been hurting you the most:
Gas - Anyone that is a buyer of gas is feeling like they ate a whole bunch of tomatoes recently. But remember don't just buy it because it has 'energy' it its name. Look back at my posts and I told you not to buy the refiners because they are also 'buyers of gas' so this makes them a lousy play. But I love the Oil Services sector and added it to my Stock Tracker to the right of the page.
Steel, Copper, Gold - Now you may not know it but these metals ain't cheap and there are plenty of plays in this area to make money off of. I love the pick that I added to the Stock Tracker, AK Steel but it buddy US Steel just got a major upgrade and I still love this sector. Copper feels much the same so look out for names like Freeport McMoran and when talking about gold take the easy route for searching for a name and buy an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that specializes in a little bit of bling!
Speculation - The other thing that people have been talking about is market speculation, or people profiting by trying to drive certain markets higher. To benefit start looking at the alternative energy plays that are risky but could be worth the payoff. Solar energies like Evergreen Solar, First Solar, MEMC Electronics, Canadian Solar and the list goes on. And even our friend wind is starting to look good as plays like Broadwind Energy may continue to get pushed up by speculators.
Shorts - Try not to think to much and short the stupid plays. Shorting a stock is making a bet that a stocks price will go down. UPS and FEDEX are easy plays to see why they are getting smashed. They transport good and the price of fuel is skyrocketing...SELL. And when people can't buy the toys they want retailers like Circuit City and Pier 1 Imports, the automakers Ford and GM, and airplane companies like United and Delta will continue to fall like bodies in the movie Terminator. Also I am going out on a small limb and say short AT&T. With the exclusive rights to the I-Phone, I was watching on tv where an analyst felt like the amounts they are paying to subsidize the I-Phone will hurt the stock in the short term.
Go with the flow, the trend is your friend, and make everyone's pain your gain...buy energy, natural gas, steel and we'll tell our kids later about where we were when we made money off $5 gas prices.
Monday, June 23, 2008
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Cali Love ~ June URB Update
I took a few days off to head over to the West Coast last week. I was living it up in the state of sun, taking care of business for my boy TP who just got married...if you don't know then check out webeclubbin.com for more on the right way to live and enjoy life.
I have been watching the market closely because it seems to be bouncing like a coaster at Six Flags Great America. The catch is the ride has been heading south more than it has been gliding up. I am here to report on what I've been paying attention to the most to keep you informed on new developments. I have to admit not much has surprised me, as most analysts are very negative on the US stock market. Some fools out there keep trying to catch the bottom of sectors such as the financial industry but who knows when they will learn. Let's see, Wachovia got smashed and cut their dividend, Bank of America is not doing much better, and regional banks like National City and others are feeling the pain and strain. I am watching oil closely as many people are taking a good game but little do they forget the fundamentals haven't changed and until someone (maybe Saudi Arabia) raises oil production little will be done in the short term!!!
June URB Updates
China Digital TV Holdings (NYSE: STV) is a BUY in my mind from a valuation standpoint. The background is set as China has opened it arms like the rest of the world to the digital revolution that is taking place. I am hoping the stock will be pushed by requirements from the Chinese government that major cities convert from analog to digital (sound familiar) by the end of this year!! Next think Olympics, my reasons may be simple but who in their right mind would want to watch the 2008 Olympics with just an analog signal...not me.
Zhone Technologies (NASDAQ: ZHNE) and heartburn might be one and the same. This stock I believe is dropping due to the fact that NASDAQ has notified the company that it will be delisted because of failing to meet listing requirements because the stock has been trading under $1 for over 30 days. Pay close attention to this stock as penny stocks can move very quickly to the downside. I would recommend cutting your losses as there are other battles to fight and even though this stock is in a great industry (technology) and growing sector (telecommunications) there will be other days.
Burlington Northern Sante Fe is a stock that has been mentioned plenty of times here and I would also recommend taking a little profit here because future earnings estimate forecasts are starting to come down and remember we were watching the executives of the companies sell massive amounts of stock. Interesting timing since the company just reported that floods and fuel costs are starting to hamper their business.
National City Corporation (NCC) will remain a volatile stock for the short term but it appears to be holding up well especially around the BUY levels we identified as close to book value. I still have some concern because banks are coming out every day and scaring us with more and more write downs. But they have beefed up their cash levels and have a host of analysts rating them as a buy.
Notes: I have purchased STV in my stock tracker and personal portfolio. I am closely monitoring ZHNE, BNI for sells, and NCC for purchase. Bulls and Bears make money...pigs and fools holding on to losses for pride get slaughtered!!
I have been watching the market closely because it seems to be bouncing like a coaster at Six Flags Great America. The catch is the ride has been heading south more than it has been gliding up. I am here to report on what I've been paying attention to the most to keep you informed on new developments. I have to admit not much has surprised me, as most analysts are very negative on the US stock market. Some fools out there keep trying to catch the bottom of sectors such as the financial industry but who knows when they will learn. Let's see, Wachovia got smashed and cut their dividend, Bank of America is not doing much better, and regional banks like National City and others are feeling the pain and strain. I am watching oil closely as many people are taking a good game but little do they forget the fundamentals haven't changed and until someone (maybe Saudi Arabia) raises oil production little will be done in the short term!!!
June URB Updates
China Digital TV Holdings (NYSE: STV) is a BUY in my mind from a valuation standpoint. The background is set as China has opened it arms like the rest of the world to the digital revolution that is taking place. I am hoping the stock will be pushed by requirements from the Chinese government that major cities convert from analog to digital (sound familiar) by the end of this year!! Next think Olympics, my reasons may be simple but who in their right mind would want to watch the 2008 Olympics with just an analog signal...not me.
Zhone Technologies (NASDAQ: ZHNE) and heartburn might be one and the same. This stock I believe is dropping due to the fact that NASDAQ has notified the company that it will be delisted because of failing to meet listing requirements because the stock has been trading under $1 for over 30 days. Pay close attention to this stock as penny stocks can move very quickly to the downside. I would recommend cutting your losses as there are other battles to fight and even though this stock is in a great industry (technology) and growing sector (telecommunications) there will be other days.
Burlington Northern Sante Fe is a stock that has been mentioned plenty of times here and I would also recommend taking a little profit here because future earnings estimate forecasts are starting to come down and remember we were watching the executives of the companies sell massive amounts of stock. Interesting timing since the company just reported that floods and fuel costs are starting to hamper their business.
National City Corporation (NCC) will remain a volatile stock for the short term but it appears to be holding up well especially around the BUY levels we identified as close to book value. I still have some concern because banks are coming out every day and scaring us with more and more write downs. But they have beefed up their cash levels and have a host of analysts rating them as a buy.
Notes: I have purchased STV in my stock tracker and personal portfolio. I am closely monitoring ZHNE, BNI for sells, and NCC for purchase. Bulls and Bears make money...pigs and fools holding on to losses for pride get slaughtered!!
Monday, June 09, 2008
Kenya IPO / National City / The New Gold??
Kenya IPO - Safaricom
Back in March, I wrote about Safaricom the telecom giant of Kenya. This recommendation highlights a great way where communicating with your friends leads to great stock recommendations. After understanding the risks involved, I noted that this would be a great play in the international markets especially because the local US environment isn't exactly overflowing with gigantic returns. I was pleased to read today the Safaricom's Initial Public Offering rose roughly 50% today. The one difficulty the average investor may have run into is that because it was an international IPO there weren't as many ways to participate in this offering outside of having some type of link to Morgan Stanley an advisor to Safaricom. Check out our earlier discussion here: http://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2008/03/march-edition-urb-in-60-seconds.html
NATIONAL CITY - IS IT TIME TO BUY???
National City (NYSE: NCC) dropped over 83 percent in the previous 12 months. Time after time we have continued to comment about the weakness in the financial sector. Need more proof, check out Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual and National City as examples of banks under fire and almost under water. I got a call the other day from a friend who said is it time to buy, so I began my research of this company and turned up some positive information. I was surprised and comforted by the recent upgrades by Deutsche Bank AG and KBW. However, I also stumbled along an article about the fact that NCC is under a Memorandum of Understanding or MOU with a regulatory banking agency. From my experience of auditing banks, an MOU is not a good look. As a matter of fact is down right ugly and means that the regulators are not very happy with your financial standing as a bank that is federally insured by the government. I also read that NCC book value price, if all the assets were sold, would roughly place the share price at $4.70. However my only problem is that some analysts may be placing value on some assets that no longer have value. So I am recommending at this point that if you truly want to own this stock, take the book value and discount this price to the point that you can sleep easy at night. I am not in a hurry to catch a bottom for financial stocks, so stay tuned to see if I change my mind.
THE NEW GOLD
The new gold will be solar or wind energy. I've got some views on both of these areas so check back with me soon.
Back in March, I wrote about Safaricom the telecom giant of Kenya. This recommendation highlights a great way where communicating with your friends leads to great stock recommendations. After understanding the risks involved, I noted that this would be a great play in the international markets especially because the local US environment isn't exactly overflowing with gigantic returns. I was pleased to read today the Safaricom's Initial Public Offering rose roughly 50% today. The one difficulty the average investor may have run into is that because it was an international IPO there weren't as many ways to participate in this offering outside of having some type of link to Morgan Stanley an advisor to Safaricom. Check out our earlier discussion here: http://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2008/03/march-edition-urb-in-60-seconds.html
NATIONAL CITY - IS IT TIME TO BUY???
National City (NYSE: NCC) dropped over 83 percent in the previous 12 months. Time after time we have continued to comment about the weakness in the financial sector. Need more proof, check out Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual and National City as examples of banks under fire and almost under water. I got a call the other day from a friend who said is it time to buy, so I began my research of this company and turned up some positive information. I was surprised and comforted by the recent upgrades by Deutsche Bank AG and KBW. However, I also stumbled along an article about the fact that NCC is under a Memorandum of Understanding or MOU with a regulatory banking agency. From my experience of auditing banks, an MOU is not a good look. As a matter of fact is down right ugly and means that the regulators are not very happy with your financial standing as a bank that is federally insured by the government. I also read that NCC book value price, if all the assets were sold, would roughly place the share price at $4.70. However my only problem is that some analysts may be placing value on some assets that no longer have value. So I am recommending at this point that if you truly want to own this stock, take the book value and discount this price to the point that you can sleep easy at night. I am not in a hurry to catch a bottom for financial stocks, so stay tuned to see if I change my mind.
THE NEW GOLD
The new gold will be solar or wind energy. I've got some views on both of these areas so check back with me soon.
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